Pundits predict clear BN win, dismiss hung Parliament prediction
By Adib Zalkapli, The Malaysian Insider
KUALA LUMPUR, Dec 14 — Political analysts do not expect the next general election to result in a hung Parliament and are predicting a clear outcome with Barisan Nasional (BN) emerging as the winner.
While they dispute influential blogger Raja Petra Kamarudin’s prediction that Malaysia will go Britain’s way with no party winning a clear majority, they also do not anticipate BN’s support eroding even further when compared to Election 2008.
In Election 2008, BN lost its two-thirds parliamentary majority in a result which sparked the formation of the Pakatan Rakyat (PR) coalition and the eventual resignation of Tun Abdullah Ahmad Badawi as prime minister.
UKM political scientist Professor Shamsul Adabi Mamat told The Malaysian Insider that it was unlikely that BN would perform worse than in 2008.
“If you look at BN, the popularity is around 53 or 54 per cent. Winning a simple majority is not a problem, of course a two-thirds majority may not be easy,” he said.
He stressed that in Election 2008, when BN was denied its two-thirds majority for the first time, Umno was facing internal problems.
“In 2008, there was instability in the leadership. They were complacent because of the success in 2004, so the voters in 2008 did not make an informed decision,” he said.
“The new leadership with Datuk Seri Najib has managed to win back the members’ loyalty,” he said, referring to Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak.
Yesterday, Raja Petra (picture) predicted that Malaysia will go Britain’s way in the coming general election with no party winning a clear majority.
Raja Petra through the Malaysian Civil Liberties Movement (MCLM), which he co-founded, has been recruiting potential candidates to be offered to PR parties.
The candidates would contest as independents should PR fail to offer a better choice, said Raja Petra.
Opinion research firm Ilham Centre executive director Mohd Hisommudin Bakar said most voters still prefer voting for candidates aligned to political parties.
“A third force of independent candidates has to be extremely popular with the electorate, and the voters must not have strong loyalty to the parties,” said Mohd Hisommudin, who regularly carries out survey for PAS.
“A hung Parliament is possible only if the third force improves its co-ordination but there has to be situation where a significant number of people are tired of both Pakatan and BN politics, but we don’t see that happening,” he told The Malaysian Insider.
He said even an influential politician like Datuk Ibrahim Ali lost his deposit when he contested as an independent in the Pengkalan Pasir by-election in 2005, but won the Pasir Mas constituency when contesting as a PAS candidate in 2008.
“Look at Ibrahim Ali, he is an important figure in Pasir Mas. But he could not contest on his own. Only when he was on a PAS ticket he won,” said Mohd Hisommudin.
Monash University’s Wong Chin Huat also said it was unlikely for the next election to result in a hung Parliament as PR would have to be stronger than in 2008 for it to win close to half of the 222 parliamentary seats.
BN currently controls 137 seats in the federal legislature, while PR collectively holds 77 seats after five of its MPs became BN-friendly independents.
