East Malaysia: the REAL Third Force in Malaysian politics (UPDATED with BM and Chinese Translation)

ARCHIVES 2010

By MT Webmaster On Dec 15, 2010

Yes, whoever gets to form the next federal government and whether it will be with a simple majority or a two-thirds majority will depend on East Malaysia. And those in Sabah and Sarawak know this. So, expect some surprises from East Malaysia over the next month or so.

NO HOLDS BARRED

Raja Petra Kamarudin

Suspensions will give BN two-thirds majority

(Malaysiakini) – Pakatan Rakyat says the anticipated suspension of four of its MPs tomorrow will lead to BN regaining its two-thirds majority in Parliament. Rasah MP Anthony Loke said the implications of this are huge and the consequences dire for Pakatan.

“Maybe the BN will use this opportunity to amend the federal constitution or re-draw the electoral boundaries,” Loke told reporters at the Parliament lobby today.

A motion to suspend Opposition Leader Anwar Ibrahim for six-months was tabled yesterday in a bid to censure him for claiming that Apco Worldwide – a public relations firm that advises the Najib administration – was linked to the Zionist regime of Israel. Following this, Anwar was referred to the rights and privileges committee, which recommended that Anwar be suspended, despite not giving him the opportunity to make his defence.

The committee’s investigation has been criticised by three Pakatan MPs – Azmin Ali (PKR-Gombak), R Sivarasa (PKR-Subang) and Karpal Singh (DAP-Bukit Gelugor). They have been accused of breaking the embargo on the committee’s report and a motion, to be tabled today, aims to suspend them for six months as well.

Loke said speaker Pandikar Amin Mulia had “allowed the federal government to use its majority as it likes. Tomorrow, they will pass a motion to suspend Anwar and now three more MPs from Pakatan. I see a hidden agenda here.”

“This will mean huge political implications for Pakatan in Parliament because now there are 76 MPs and if four are suspended for the next six months, we will lose our one-third strength in the House. We will only have 72 in MPs,” he said.

Read more here: http://www.malaysiakini.com/news/150861

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Barisan Nasional knows if it holds the general election today it may see a hung parliament. Of course, many do not agree with my prediction but then they make their assessment based on emotions and wishful thinking.

Let us look at things rationally and without any emotions.

Sabah, Sarawak and Labuan control a total of 57 parliament seats. This means there are only 165 parliament seats in Peninsular or West Malaysia.

Now, Pakatan Rakyat ‘controls’ about half these 165 seats in Peninsular Malaysia — say 82-83 — and Barisan Nasional the other half. (Note: almost all the Pakatan Rakyat seats are in Peninsular Malaysia and not in East Malaysia).

This means, without East Malaysia, we would see a hung parliament, as what I said a few days ago.

So, who is actually this Third Force that many are talking about these last few weeks? The Malaysian Civil Liberties Movement (MCLM)? Certainly not! The MCLM is not third or even a force for the matter, to quote some Pakatan Rakyat leaders.

The various political groupings from Sabah and Sarawak are actually this Third Force.

While everyone is aiming their sights on the MCLM and gunning it to kingdom come they are ignoring the real Third Force, Sabah and Sarawak, those that Barisan Nasional calls their ‘fixed deposit’.

Barisan Nasional can no longer leave anything to chance. Even their ‘fixed deposit’ may not be that secure any longer (because the natives have grown restless). They need to do some serious gerrymandering to ensure that they not only win the coming general election but win with a clear and safe two-thirds majority as well.

But to do all this they first need a two-thirds majority in parliament. And they need it now, today. And they will get this two-thirds majority when they suspend a few Pakatan Rakyat Members of Parliament, like what they are doing now.

Smart or not?

Expect some drastic ‘re-engineering’ once Barisan Nasional gets back their two-thirds majority in parliament over the next few days. I was told the new electoral boundaries are already drawn up, and in favour of Barisan Nasional of course. But they need to keep it a secret at the moment. Once Barisan Nasional gets back its two-thirds majority in parliament they will approve the new electoral boundaries with maybe some additional seats as well.

If Barisan Nasional wants to just redraw the electoral boundaries it does not need two-thirds of parliament. Many do not know this. Only if they want to add more seats do they need two-thirds of parliament.

Amongst other things they are doing is they are increasing the number of armed forces personnel. This also increases the number of postal voters and if their family members also vote by post then we may see a huge number of votes going to Barisan Nasional.

RELA, which had about half a million members last year, has suddenly increased to more than two million within just a year. Added to the armed forces postal votes this means about 2.5 million votes will be in Barisan Nasional’s pocket even before the announcement of Polling Day.

Barisan Nasional is bent on not just winning the next general election but they want to win with a clear majority just like in 2004 when the opposition was almost be wiped out. And they are pulling every trick in the book to ensure this happens.

What will Sabah and Sarawak do? Will they stay with Barisan Nasional? Will they swing over to Pakatan Rakyat? Or will they let Barisan Nasional and Pakatan Rakyat slug it out and see a hung parliament before deciding which coalition to form a ‘unity government’ with?

I will stop here for now and allow the suspense to linger for a while longer.

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Malaysia Timur: Kuasa Ketiga yang SEBENAR dalam politik Malaysia

Ya, pihak yang berjaya membentuk kerajaan persekutuan yang seterusnya dan sama ada ia akan menang dengan majoriti mudah atau majoriti dua pertiga bergantung pada Malaysia Timur. Penduduk Sabah dan Sarawak sedar akan hakikat ini. Jadi, bersedialah untuk beberapa kejutan dari Malaysia Timur dalam masa sebulan dua ini.

NO HOLDS BARRED

Raja Petra Kamarudin
Translated by Bart Simpson

Barisan Nasional tahu bahawa jika mereka mengadakan pilihanraya umum pada hari ini, ia mungkin menyebabkan parlimen tergantung. Ya, memang ramai yang tak bersetuju dengan ramalan saya, tapi mereka sebenarnya membuat penilaian berdasarkan emosi dan harapan palsu semata-mata.

Mari kita nilai keadaan secara rasional dan tanpa emosi.

Terdapat 57 kerusi parlimen di Sabah, Sarawak dan Labuan. Ini bererti bahawa hanya terdapat 165 kerusi parlimen di Semenanjung atau Malaysia Barat.

Sekarang, Pakatan Rakyat ‘menguasai’ sekitar separuh daripada 165 kerusi di Semenanjung Malaysia – kira-kira 82 – 83 – dan separuh lagi dikuasai oleh Barisan Nasional. (Nota: hampir semua kerusi parlimen Pakatan Rakyat berada di Semenanjung Malaysia dan bukan di Malaysia Timur).

Ini bermakna bahawa tanpa Malaysia Timur, kita akan menyaksikan parlimen tergantung, seperti yang saya katakan beberapa hari yang lalu.

Jadi, siapa sebenarnya Kuasa Ketiga yang sudah banyak kali disebut sejak beberapa minggu yang lalu? Pergerakan Kebebasan Sivil Malaysia (MCLM)? Tentu tidak! Menurut sesetengah pemimpin Pakatan Rakyat, MCLM ni bukan kuasa ketiga, malah bukan suatu ‘kuasa’ pun.
Sebenarnya, Kuasa Ketiga yang dimaksudkan adalah pergerakan politik di Sabah dan Sarawak.

Di ketika semua orang menjadikan MCLM sebagai sasaran dan ingin menghancurkannya, mereka sebenarnya mengabaikan Kuasa Ketiga yang sebenar, iaitu Sabah dan Sarawak, yang dianggap sebagai ‘deposit tetap’ oleh Barisan Nasional.

Barisan Nasional tidak boleh lagi bergantung pada keadaan. Ini kerana ‘deposit tetap’ mereka pun dah tak selamat (kerana penduduk pribumi kini gelisah). Mereka perlu melakukan gerimander (manipulasi persempadanan semula) bagi memastikan bahawa mereka tidak hanya memenangi pilihanraya umum yang akan datang, tetapi menang dengan majoriti dua pertiga yang besar.

Namun untuk melakukan semua ini, mereka terlebih dahulu memerlukan majoriti dua pertiga di parlimen. Mereka memerlukannya sekarang, hari ini. Mereka akan memperoleh majoriti dua pertiga apabila mereka menggantung beberapa ahli Parlimen Pakatan Rakyat, seperti apa yang mereka lakukan sekarang.

Bijak ke tak bijak?

Dalam dua tiga hari ni, iaitu apabila Barisan Nasional kembali mendapat majoriti dua pertiga, jangan terkejut jika mereka memperkenalkan beberapa perubahan drastik. Saya diberitahu bahawa sempadan kawasan pilihan raya yang baru sudah pun disusun, dan ia sudah semestinya berpihak pada Barisan Nasional. Tapi buat masa ni, mereka merahsiakannya. Setelah Barisan Nasional kembali memperoleh majoriti dua pertiga di parlimen, mereka akan meluluskan sempadan-sempadan baru itu, dengan kemungkinan tambahan beberapa kerusi.

Jika Barisan Nasional hanya ingin menyusun semula sempadan kawasan pilihanraya, mereka tak memerlukan majoriti dua pertiga. Ramai yang tak tahu akan hakikat ini. Mereka hanya memerlukan majoriti dua pertiga jika mereka ingin menambah kerusi parlimen.

Antara perkara yang mereka lakukan adalah meningkatkan jumlah anggota angkatan tentera. Ini seterusnya meningkatkan jumlah pengundi pos dan jika ahli keluarga mereka juga mengundi melalui pos, maka mungkin banyak undi akan berpihak pada Barisan Nasional.

RELA, yang hanya mempunyai sekitar setengah juta ahli tahun lalu, tiba-tiba mempunyai lebih daripada dua juta ahli. Pertambahan ini berlaku dalam masa hanya setahun. Ditambah dengan undi pos angkatan tentera, maka ini bermakna belum pun tarikh pilihanraya diumumkan, Barisan Nasional sudah pun memperoleh 2.5 juta undi.

Barisan Nasional bertekad untuk tidak hanya memenangi pilihanraya umum akan datang, tetapi mereka ingin menang dengan majoriti besar, seperti yang berlaku pada 2004, yang mana pembangkang hampir dihapuskan. Maka mereka menggunakan segala taktik kotor yang dapat difikirkan bagi memastikan ini berlaku.

Apa yang akan dilakukan oleh Sabah dan Sarawak? Adakah mereka akan kekal bersama Barisan Nasional? Adakah mereka akan beralih ke Pakatan Rakyat? Atau adakah mereka akan membiarkan Barisan Nasional dan Pakatan Rakyat bertarung, lalu menyebabkan parlimen tergantung, dan mereka kemudiannya memilih salah satu sebagai rakan dalam ‘kerajaan perpaduan’?

Saya akan berhenti di sini dahulu dan membiarkan anda dilanda saspen buat sementara waktu.

Translated into Chinese at: http://ccliew.blogspot.com/2010/12/blog-post_19.html