Tenang, a litmus test for BN and Pakatan
By Syed Jaymal Zahiid, Free Malaysia Today
Barisan Nasional (BN) and Pakatan Rakyat have a critical battle when they face off in the Tenang by-election, the first in Johor, with pressure more on the latter whose Putrajaya ambitions depend, among others, on its ability to infiltrate the BN stronghold state.
Tenang assemblyman Sulaiman Taha died early yesterday morning due to complications from diabetes. He was admitted to the Ampang Puteri Specialist Hospital here on Nov 24. With his death, the country will witness another by-election, the 14th, since 2008.
Johor is known to be one of BN’s “votebanks”, a state among few others that saved the ruling coalition from total humiliation and prevented a wipe-out by opposition at the 2008 general election that cost BN five states and its two-thirds parliamentary majority.
And amid intense speculation that Prime Minister Najib Tun Razak will hold elections in the first quarter of next year, the Tenang vote is set to be yet another bellwether to the 13th general election.
Focus again will be given to the non-Malay voting pattern. Malays form close to 50% of the electorate. The Chinese and Indians form 39% and 12% respectively, a sizeable chunk among the 14,511 registered voters in the relatively small semi-urban constituency.
The defeat of Pakatan in two simultaneously held by-elections in Galas, Kelantan and Batu Sapi, Sabah, signalled a return of Chinese votes to BN. MCA president Dr Chua Soi Lek celebrated that fact and expressed confidence that the trend will continue.
Pakatan will aim to slash BN’s majority
This will be among the obstacles in Pakatan’s way in Tenang. Its 2008 breakthrough was made possible by the swing in non-Malay votes and “liberal-progressive” urban Malay support although in the context of Tenang, this phenomenon will not impact the outcome as much.
Chua will be keen on maintaining MCA’s good run and it won’t be that difficult on paper at least. Tenang falls under the Labis parliamentary constituency. It’s the MCA’s chief bastion and at the helm of it is his son, Chua Tee Yong.
Given the 2008 result, where the late Sulaiman defeated PAS candidate, Mohd Saim Siran, it would be naive for Pakatan to entertain the possibility of an upset. The Malay votes are with Umno, BN’s Malay lynchpin. Mohd Saim was defeated in not just 2008 but also in the 2004 general election.
BN’s majority, however, decreased significantly. It was slashed to almost half. Sulaiman trampled his rival with a whopping 5,517 majority while in 2008, it was only 2,492. The drastic decrease was attributed to the swing in Chinese and Indian votes towards Pakatan.
