Not a curtain-raiser for bigger battle
Political observers warn against relying on the Merlimau by-election as a indicator of the next general election.
Merlimau’s satisfaction with the previous late assemblyman BN’s Mohamad Hidhir Abu Hassan will also throw a wrench into Pakatan’s plans. Without any pressing issues to drum up, the opposition will be challenged to find BN’s Achilles heel there.
Stephanie Sta Maria, Free Malaysia Today
By-elections are not identical in nature and the outcome of a select few isn’t in any way a barometer of the voting trend of the next contest. Neither is it an indicator of the direction in which the next general election will take.
So even as anticipation builds ahead of the Merlimau battle, political observers have cautioned both the people and politicians to refrain from over-analysing the coming by-election.
The March 6 by-election comes hot on the heels of the recent Tenang by-election where BN emerged the victor.
Another easy win is already being predicted in the BN stronghold of Merlimau, which has fuelled speculations that BN would snatch back its two-thirds majority in the 13th general election.
But Rita Sim, co-founder of the Centre for Strategic Engagement, has dismissed this prediction as premature.
“Firstly, Tenang and Merlimau are geographically distinct,” she said. “Unlike Tenang, Merlimau is semi-urban, located along the coastline and enjoys the urban influence of Kuala Lumpur.”
“Many of Merlimau’s voters also live within the constituency. There is a different shade between them and those who return from other states to vote as was the case in Tenang.”
Rita likened by-elections to a movie trailer – the movie being the general election – and was wary of reading too much into them in an attempt to guess the movie’s ending.
But Merlimau, she said, would be used as the yardstick of the performance of each coalition – whether it has gained or receded in strength post-2008.
“That (2008) was the first time BN didn’t get its two-thirds and the first time Pakatan Rakyat succeeded in weakening it,” she said. “So for BN, Merlimau will be a good gauge of whether it has continued to slip since then. And for Pakatan, it will be an indicator of whether 2008 was an anomaly and if the best is over.”
“But no matter which way the votes swing, it will not be a strong indicator of where the next general election is headed,” Rita said. “There are many local issues that are not affected by national ones.”
“Also, by the time the next general election is called other factors would have emerged which will have to be taken into account. This cannot and should not be a purely mathematical analysis.”
Uphill battle for Pakatan
James Chin, a political analyst in Monash University, also cautioned against premature forecasting, saying that both parties stand on equal ground until their candidates are announced.
But he admitted that Pakatan is likely to wind up as the underdog “unless BN fields a truly rotten candidate”.
“BN’s job will also be made much easier because Merlimau is an agriculture-based industry,” he added. “The BN candidate will not need to talk about high-sounding issues like democracy. And when it comes to addressing bread-and-butter issues, BN is always better at rolling out the goodies overnight.”
Merlimau’s satisfaction with the previous late assemblyman BN’s Mohamad Hidhir Abu Hassan will also throw a wrench into Pakatan’s plans. Without any pressing issues to drum up, the opposition will be challenged to find BN’s Achilles heel there.
Political scientist Wong Chin Huat believed that the easiest route for BN in securing votes would be to evoke a sense of gratitude among the locals towards Hidir for his contributions.
