BN to regain two-thirds with 5pc Malay swing
(The Malaysian Insider) – Barisan Nasional (BN) will regain two-thirds of parliament if it maintains its recent by-election gains of Malay votes in a general election, said an analyst today.
Political analyst Dr Wong Chin Huat said today that Pakatan Rakyat (PR) stands to lose around 34 parliamentary seats if PAS does not regain its Malay support base.
“In 2008, all the areas which PAS did well was in non-Muslim areas,” he said during a public forum on Malay rights organised by the Islamist party here today.
“DAP is expected to maintain its votes as the majority of its parliamentary constituencies are Chinese,” he said.
PR won 82 seats in the March 2008 polls on the back of support of all races but has seen between seven to 10 per cent of Malays swinging back to BN in recent by-elections.
Wong, a lecturer in Monash University, said that based on projections, a five per cent shift of Malay voters from PR to BN was enough to destabilise the federal opposition.
PR has seen a decline in Malay support since July 2009, when a by-election in the 99 per cent Malay seat of Manek Urai, Kelantan saw a previous 1,352-vote majority in the PAS stronghold drop to a wafer-thin 65.
Malays continued to swing towards Barisan Nasional (BN) in subsequent polls, from around seven to 10 per cent, allowing the ruling coalition to grab Hulu Selangor and Galas from PR.
The most recent by-election in Tenang, Johor, saw PR fail to make any headway among the mainly Felda Malays as BN swept over 83 per cent of Malay votes to increase its majority by over 1,200 votes.
In the 2008 general election, PAS won 23 parliamentary seats, PKR 31 and DAP 28.
“PAS needs to understand the reality of the political situation, the PAS today is not like how it was in 2004,” said Wong.
With dwindling Malay Muslim support, PAS held a convention today to affirm its commitment to prioritise the dominant Islamic race in the country.
PAS spiritual advisor Datuk Nik Abdul Aziz Nik Mat claimed that the Pakatan Rakyat (PR) coalition partner had never forsaken Malay rights and that it was Umno’s economic policies which had caused division and unequal distribution among various races in Malaysia.
