Never Say Never
By Karim Raslan, The Star
If our leaders wish to avoid the fate of the now-teetering Arab states, they cannot allow their plans for transformation to be sidetracked.
IN 2010, liberals all over the world (including myself) were worried about how democracy appeared to be in retreat.
China’s rise along with the US and Europe’s decline seemed to herald an age of authoritarianism as politicians looked on admiringly at Beijing’s startling prosperity.
Indeed, even the bastion of liberal thought, The Economist produced a lavish “Democracy in Retreat” special for all those hand-wringers out there.
Well, 2011 has reversed the gloom. Suddenly, democracy with all its irrationality and craziness is back in vogue – a young man’s act of self-immolation in Tunisia has engendered demonstrations and regime change across the Arab world – literally like wildfire.
As I’ve said before, I don’t think South-East Asia will be experiencing the same exuberant democratic adrenalin-rush this time around. We’ve been there before.
In 1998 we experienced a similar inflationary spike in oil and food prices (caused by the currency crisis).
The moment has passed but that doesn’t mean we don’t wonder at what might have happened or regret our failure to seize the moment.
Indeed, South-East Asian history is littered with mixed-results revolutions – like the Reformasi movements of Malaysia and Indonesia, the Filipino EDSAs and the 1992 Thai democracy protests – all of which were ultimately futile or requiring arduous consolidation.
If anything, Malaysia (and Singapore) are quietly tightening the noose on civil liberties and media freedom.
Still, the sense of relative deprivation and frustration is by no means comparable – yet – with the Middle East.
Nevertheless, as I look at the wave of unrest rippling through the Arab world today, I’m reminded of the saying: Never Say Never, which also happens to be the title of a Justin Bieber song – but let’s not go there.
It would be very foolish to think that our region is completely insulated from turmoil in the Middle East.
Firstly, we could well be hit economically as higher oil prices threaten the US and Europe’s recovery and lead to a “double-dip” recession, something that would impact our export-led economies.
Secondly, we’re still not sure how the Gulf’s various monarchies will weather the storm. Will they manage better than their republican counterparts?
Evidence from Bahrain shows that princes can and do make horrendous errors of judgment. Furthermore, we have to ask whether the former Soviet Republics – such as Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan – will be similarly affected?
Is this “democratic wave” the political equivalent of the contagious Bird Flu? Certainly, it’s hard to envisage how kingdoms like Saudi Arabia or Jordan will escape the turmoil.
Autocratic rule (however benign or glamorous, as in Jordan with its celebrated icon, Queen Rania) has failed to deliver either employment or prosperity and resentment simmers just below the surface.
Indeed, Saudi Arabia seems particularly vulnerable. The Kingdom is surrounded by political upheaval.
The predominantly-Shiite uprising in Bahrain may well spread via the King Fahd Causeway, to the extensive oil-producing Eastern Province – which also happens to be largely Shiite.
Major disruptions to the oil supply aside, any political dislocation in Saudi Arabia would also have a seismic impact on the Islamic world, thanks to the global influence the Royal Sauds enjoy through their privileged role as the custodians of the twin holy cities of Mecca and Medinah.
It is telling, therefore that Saudi’s 86-year-old King Abdullah has announced a major, US$37bil (RM113bil) benefits package targeted at his lower and middle-income subjects, including pay rises, doles and housing subsidies – along with cautious proposals for more media openness and professionalism.
Is the gesture too little too late or will it quell the nascent anger?
The core cause of the demonstrations is essentially the breakdown of the Middle East’s authoritarian consensus. Like our own, it is founded upon the notion that its populace would accept a lack of democracy and civil rights in return for stability plus economic development.
The regimes of Ben Ali, Mubarak and Gaddafi provided neither; and so their people have risen albeit after decades of cowering in fear.
What has made the anger on the ground all the more palpable is the hypocritical use those dictators made of Islam and Arab nationalism to disguise their corruption, venality and dynastic ambitions.
At the same time the prospect of generational transition from father to son – Hosni Mubarak to Gamal Mubarak and Muammar Gaddafi to Seif-Al Islam – has intensified the opposition. Essentially, you can fool some people some of the time but you can’t fool them all the time.
Arab leaders have failed to deal with their people in a dignified, decent and intelligent manner.
Nonetheless, all societies have corrective mechanisms and no abuse of power ever goes unpunished in the long run.
As I said earlier, there has lately been a momentum towards conservative reform in South-East Asia.
If our leaders wish to avoid the fate of the now-teetering Arab states, then they cannot allow their plans for transformation to be sidetracked.
Above all, a willingness to open up the political space must go hand-in-hand with economic development. South-East Asia must also listen to its young.
Our politics have for too long been dominated by unaccountable gerontocrats sniping from behind the curtain. Asean leaders must have the vision and foresight to respond to these challenges, or see their governments swept away with the same fury that now stalks the Arab streets.
As I said: ‘never say never’…
