In Sarawak, 29 seats hang in balance
By Sheridan Mahavera, The Malaysian Insider
PETALING JAYA, April1 — The Sarawak election will see heated contests in 29 seats, which a political scientist predicted could fall into Pakatan Rakyat (PR) hands if the correct strategies are employed.
However, other experts at the Merdeka Center talk on the Sarawak polls last night concluded that the possibility of the state being wrested from Barisan Nasional’s (BN) grip was “almost impossible”.
They also said there was only a “so and so” chance that the PR would deny BN a two-thirds majority in the 71-seat state assembly.
A more tempered observation was that PR could win “more or less” 20 seats but short of the 24 needed to deny the BN a two-thirds majority, said another political scientist.
These conclusions are because more than 70 per cent of seats in Sarawak are in the interior areas. Also, a complex matrix of patronage and development aid has allowed the BN to maintain support in the state’s hinterlands.
The picture that emerges from these analyses also point to a possible political ethnic rift developing in Sarawak. Chinese voters are expected to abandon the BN while the ruling coalition maintains support among rural Dayaks and Malay/Melanaus.
Dr Faizal Syam Hazis of Universiti Malaysia Sarawak said the 29 contentious seats comprised of 15 Chinese majority seats and 14 seats in Iban, Malay/Melanau, Bidayuh and Orang Ulu areas.
The Chinese seats include all six DAP seats (Pending, Kidurong, Bukit Assek, Batu Lintang, Kota Sentosa and Meradong), Parti Keadilan Rakyat’s lone seat of Padungan, and Ngemah held by Parti Cinta Malaysia.
Faisal said the low support among Chinese voters towards the BN threatens the future of the Sarawak United People’s Party (SUPP), the second largest party in Sarawak BN.
“Even Piasau is not safe anymore,” says Faisal referring to the seat held by Deputy Chief Minister and SUPP president Tan Sri Dr George Chan.
Another panellist, Prof Dr Jayum Jawan, said although much has been made of Chief Minister Tan Sri Abdul Taib Mahmud’s unpopularity in the media, the issue will not resonate with rural voters.
“The real issue is about Sarawak being left out of the mainstream of development. Development has largely benefitted the Malays, Chinese and Indians in the peninsula but not Sarawakians,” said Jayum of Universiti Putra Malaysia.
