BN will keep Sarawak by a hair’s breadth, say analysts
By Clara Chooi, The Malaysian Insider
KUCHING, April 16 — The ruling Barisan Nasional (BN) will retain Sarawak today but will end the race with Pakatan Rakyat (PR) dangerously close at its heels, say analysts.
Their polls projections, which were cautious at first, have now grown significantly optimistic for the opposition force, which is contesting in its first-ever state election under the PR umbrella.
Three analysts told The Malaysian Insider yesterday that BN was likely en route to yet another electoral victory in the hornbill state but the contest for two-thirds majority was too close to call.
Such a prediction would have been laughed off at campaign kick-off last week but consistent reports of massive rally turnouts and talk of rising anger against the state’s powerful Chief Minister Tan Sri Abdul Taib Mahmud have now drawn a question mark over BN’s ability to maintain its near-dominance in the 71-seat state assembly.
When at first even PR leaders admitted their goals would be impossible to achieve, the final day of campaigning yesterday saw Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim declaring that the newborn alliance would far surpass its targets.
“We are very confident we are going to go far beyond that, we are pushing to deny BN its monopoly of the state,” he said during a press conference yesterday afternoon.
According to sources, PR is now betting largely on victory in 34 state seats, with DAP winning in 13 of the 15 seats it is contesting, followed by PKR’s 19 of 49 seats and PAS’s two of five state seats.
PR needs to win in at least 24 state seats to deny BN its customary two-thirds majority, and 36 seats to form a new government in Sarawak.
The pact’s wins are expected to come largely from the urban and semi-urban state seats, particularly in constituencies within the main townships and city and their outskirts.
Analysts were similarly as optimistic over PR’s chances, pointing out that the usually conservative political culture in Sarawak had changed significantly in the past week.
Voters, they said, were now not only more politically aware but were also willing to unreservedly declare their grouses with the ruling administration, an uncharacteristic trait in the past.
Tonight’s outcome, said the analysts, would bank on how successful BN’s use of its entire state and federal government machinery has been in convincing voters to stick to the ruling pact.
When polling opens at 1,749 centres across the state this morning, 979,796 voters will face the crucial decision of whether to “vote for change” or vote for “transformation”, the two messages spread by PR and BN over the 10-day campaign period.
Universiti Malaysia Sarawak lecturer Dr Faisal Syam Hazis, who has been criss-crossing Sarawak to observe the heated campaign, said that over the past 10 days voters across all different communities had shared one major grouse — their disenchantment with Taib or “Pek Moh”.
“The message is very clear. People are echoing the call for change and I can see this even in the Dayak areas.
“Many are really disappointed with the BN… you can sense that sentiment. Promises were made to them to provide water and roads, to give them employment opportunities, but they were only made during elections,” he said.
Faisal said PR’s performance would bank heavily on the protest vote — constituents who were upset with BN but who did not necessarily subscribe to the opposition’s policies.
But the professor said this would not bear any similarity to the protest vote in the tsunami of 2008 as Sarawak’s voter dynamics and political situation were significantly different from those of states in the peninsula.
“The issues are different here so let me put it like this — I think the opposition will win more seats and could deny two-thirds but it is too close to call,” he said.
Faisal also noted that another major factor was the possibility of vote-rigging and election irregularities, which the opposition has predicted would likely occur today.
The pact has already complained of cash handouts allegedly given by BN agents to voters, ranging between RM100 for each voter and up to RM2,000. Villages in the interior areas, they claimed, were even given RM6,000 allocations.
“And look, PR is not only up against BN’s already massive election machinery, it is also up against the entire federal and state government machinery.
“You can observe how this has been constantly used in rural areas; Kemas, the Education Department, the police, all government departments and the deployment of the entire federal and state Cabinet ministers to help in the polls,” he said.
