Would there be a snap general election?

By LIM SUE GOAN
Translated by Soong Phui Jee
Sin Chew Daily

The Sarawak state election is a lesson for the Pakatan Rakyat. Many people were excited over the high turnout rate for Pakatan Rakyat’s ceramah and rallies. They thought that the alternative coalition would be able to stop the BN from securing a two-thirds majority this time. However, the results proved that they had been over optimistic. The wind of change blew in urban areas did not reach rural areas and the Pakatan Rakyat was still unable to break the BN’s bastion.

The election results have confirmed some analyses earlier. The Sarawak BN has three magic weapons to secure its power in the state:

Firstly, Malay constituencies is very steady. Although the Pakatan Rakyat has highlighted the retirement issue of Chief Minister Tan Sri Abdul Taib Mahmud, the PBB remains a protective umbrella of the Malays and the Melanaus. The PBB has won all 35 seats contested and 27 Malay constituencies among them have made significant contributions.

The Pakatan Rakyat will not be able to win the state power if it does not weaken the influence of the PBB, which is enjoying the same status as Umno of the peninsula in Sarawak. Also, PAS’ emphasis on religious issues does not contribute much in Sarawak.

Secondly, Bumiputera voters continue supporting the BN. There are 38 constituencies, or 53.52% of the total seats, with Bumiputeras as their majority populations. If the Dayak Ibans do not wish to change, inland constituencies will then remain a stronghold of the BN.

Thirdly, there are internal struggles within the alternative coalition. There were multiple-corner fights in 44 constituencies. Even though the total votes of the PKR and SNAP was still less than the votes gained by the BN, the momentum and organisational strength would be much stronger if they could combine to fight against the BN.

SNAP competed for 26 seats but it gained only 15,836 votes in total, showing that its glorious days is over. It should be dissolved and join the Pakatan Rakyat.

Of course, the Pakatan Rakyat still gained something from the state election. In addition to the big victory of the DAP, the two Bumiputera constituencies won by the PKR have also proven that the party has finally got a foothold in Bumiputera areas.

The PKR has gained over 7,000 Iban votes and won the Krian and Ba’Kelalan with 95.76% and 91.38% of Bumiputera voters respectively. Although it is a just a little progress, it is still a starting point.

In terms of votes, the BN gained 372,379 votes or 54.7% while the Pakatan Rakyat gained 261,493 votes or 38.4%. The BN has won two-thirds majority seats due to demarcation factors and the Pakatan Rakyat gained only 21% of seats. However, it reminds the BN that 38% of the voters have voted for the alternative coalition.

Just like Gerakan which has lost Penang because of the lack of innovation capacity, the only way out for the SUPP will be to reform and restructure.

There are three issues to be concerned after the Sarawak state election, namely when Taib would step down, the relations between Sarawak and the central government and whether a snap general election would be held.

If Taib does not honour the commitment to retire in two years, his retirement will still be an issue in the next election. If he steps down, would Umno enter Sarawak? It is a bit unusual for Taib to be sworn in immediately after the election results was announced.

A snap general election is expected after Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak has overcome the challenge of the Sarawak state election as the national economy for the next half year is still uncertain. Although the Pakatan Rakyat has gained twice as many seats in the state, it is expected to win only a few more seats in the next general election and therefore, it should not be a concern.

The battle is over for now. The Pakatan Rakyat has not yet been sunken and it is expected to be followed by something more interesting!