Swinging back to the fold

By Joceline Tan, The Star

Shifting Malay sentiments suggest that Barisan Nasional could be on the way to regaining its two-thirds majority in the next general election.

SOMETIMES, people don’t know whether to laugh or cry when they hear Kelantan opposition chief Datuk Alwi Che Ahmad speak at ceramah. Sometimes, they laugh until they cry because he can be quite funny.

The Umno politician recently had his audience tickled when he joked about the lif rosak (broken lift) at the Kelantan Mentri Besar’s office. The lift was out of order for several months, causing the elderly Datuk Nik Abdul Aziz Nik Mat to move his office from the third to the ground floor because he was too frail to use the stairs.

“In Kelantan, people want to move from the low-lying areas to higher ground because of floods. We don’t like to be under water. But the Mentri Besar is moving from high to low ground, from the top floor to the ground floor. This is very bad; we should not be doing this to him. He cannot walk in flood water,” Alwi said.

Of course, the crowd caught his drift. He was poking gentle fun at Nik Aziz’s age and frailty. The cheeky Alwi was also telling Nik Aziz that it was time to make way for someone younger and who can take the stairs.

Alwi complained that PAS had changed its tune since coming to power 20 years ago. He pointed to a state government banner hanging nearby that read: Membangun Bersama Masyarakat (Developing with the people).

“In the past, it used to be Membangun Bersama Islam (Developing with Islam). That’s what happens when you become friends with DAP. It’s a great success for Lim Kit Siang, Lim Guan Eng and Lee Kuan Yew,” he said.

It was a sarcastic tribute to the Lim family of DAP, with the Singapore Minister Mentor’s name thrown in for effect.

Singapore remains a thorny issue among Malay nationalists and Lee has been a staple political topic after he and Nik Aziz were photographed together, with Nik Aziz giving Lee a big thumbs-up.

The Malay ground is shifting. Umno politicians everywhere are taking note and, in the case of Alwi, taking advantage of the new mood.

In Kelantan especially, PAS is under tremendous pressure after 20 years in power. Decades can be awkward years, as Sarawak Chief Minister Tan Sri Taib Mahmud has learnt.

Some Umno politicians are even talking of Kelantan falling back into their hands in the general election. But this type of talk crops up each time the general election approaches and, over the years, claims of Umno retaking Kelantan have begun to sound like a karaoke song – nice to sing to but a bit of a yawn.

However, the by-elections in Galas, Tenang, Kerdau and Merlimau have seen PAS losing by decisive margins to Umno. There has been a Malay vote swing of as much as 5% from PAS to Umno.

If Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak were to call for elections now, his coalition could be returned to power and with a two-thirds majority to boot. This, in spite of the fact that the Chinese vote is still largely out there with DAP.

Barisan currently has 137 parliamentary seats against Pakatan Rakyat’s 76. Another nine MPs are categorised as independents. Going on the basis of a 5% Malay vote swing to Umno, as many as 35 parliamentary seats currently held by PAS and PKR could fall to Barisan.

This means that Barisan could likely win the next general election with more than 160 parliamentary seats. This is in spite of predictions that Barisan is likely to lose up to five parliamentary seats in Sarawak given the anti-Taib mood among the Chinese.

Those in danger include high-profile figures like PKR secretary-general Saifuddin Nasution (Machang), PAS central committee member Dr Dzulkefly Ahmad (Kuala Selangor), PKR vice-president MP Fuziah Salleh (Kuantan) and PAS vice-president Datuk Mahfuz Omar (Pokok Sena), to name a few.

Even PKR star Nurul Izzah Anwar’s seat in Lembah Pantai is not safe. She won the seat with only 53% of the vote and she will be facing a very well-organised and determined opponent in the next round.

“Umno’s focus will be on winning back these marginal seats,” said Kuala Terengganu Umno chief Datuk Wan Farid Wan Salleh.

DAP’s expanded sphere of influence has turned out to be one of those double-edged swords. It can pride itself as the most successful party in Pakatan. It has been able to hold on and expand its Chinese influence unlike PAS and PKR which has trouble maintaining the Malay support won in 2008.

The downside is that a large number of Malays are uncomfortable with a strong DAP. The Malay thinking, whether in PAS or Umno, has always been that the anchor party in any coalition must be Malay-Muslim based. The core of this sort of thinking revolves around the belief that a party shored on Chinese interests would be unable to genuinely defend the paramount status of Islam.

“DAP’s success will have an effect on the Malay vote. The hardcore of Umno and PAS will stay loyal but I can see the Malay fence-sitters reassessing their stand regarding the two coalitions. They feel they need to be united under the party that best represents their interests,” said Kangar MP Datuk Seri Radzi Sheikh Ahmad.

But the big question, said Radzi, is whether Barisan can get back the states it lost.

“It’s not difficult to regain the two-thirds majority but you also want back the crown jewels,” he said.

There is no shortage of opinion about where the chips may fall for Kedah, Penang, Kelantan, Perak and Selangor.

The general opinion is that Penang and Kelantan will remain with Pakatan. Lim Guan Eng has shone among his fellow Pakatan state leaders and looks set to hold on to the state.

Perak looks like it will remain in Barisan hands. DAP’s choppy ties with the palace is not helping PAS and PKR on the Malay ground.

The Raja Muda’s recent remarks about assemblymen not respecting protocol underscored the strained ties. The heir to the Perak throne was referring to DAP superstar Nga Kor Ming who eschewed the ceremonial attire for a lounge suit at the opening of the Perak Legislative Assembly.

His royal remarks were more than just the need to respect the dress code; it was also read as a veiled opinion of the wakil rakyat’s general attitude towards institutional mores.

The state constitutions for Perak and Selangor, like most of the other states, require that the Mentri Besar be a Malay of Muslim faith.

But, said lawyer Zainur Rijal Abu Bakar, unlike the other states, the Sultans of these two states have the prerogative of waiving one or both of these requirements depending on the circumstance. Enjoying the confidence of the sovereign becomes important in this respect.

Kedah is in a precarious position because a 5% vote swing to Umno would mean that some 12 state seats now held by PAS and PKR are at stake. Barisan can regain Kedah even if only half of these seats fall.

Umno politicians are not boasting when they say Kedah could fall.

Kedah Mentri Besar Datuk Seri Azizan Abdul Razak recently said he was considering going for the PAS deputy president post in the party polls next month. Given the dire scenario in his state, he may want to tend his own backyard rather than venture into national PAS politics.

The most glittering jewel in the crown is Selangor. This is a hard-to-predict state. It is truly one of those 50:50 situations for both sides. There is a big pool of middle class voters in Selangor who have their own ideas of politics and also a large number of marginal seats which could swing depending on the issues.

Selangor will be the state that will have people chewing on their fingernails on election night.

But Umno is also a much more realistic party today than it was two years ago. Party officials caution that support for Umno over PAS in the last few by-elections cannot be extrapolated into national sentiment. They are confident of their rural Malay support but are still cautious about urban Malay sentiment.

Najib, if one goes through his public statements since he took over the top job, has made waves on policy and administrative issues rather than political issues. His priority has been on policy issues and he has been quite selective about commenting on political issues.

He has a very clear sense of his job and duty as Prime Minister and is not easily distracted by party politics. But Umno insiders said he is keeping very close tabs on the political state of affairs in these key states.

He knows a two-thirds majority mandate is within his reach and so is Kedah. He is not going to lose too much sleep over Penang and Kelantan but the icing on the cake would be winning back Selangor.

There has been too much politics from March 2008 till now. Far from tapering off, it is about to go up now that the Sarawak polls are over and the big battle looms.