Why BN/UMNO Will Win PRU13
An alternative coalition or party that can actually win needs to convince all Malaysian voters, BOTH Bumi and non-Bumi that their concerns and worries are recognized and will be addressed. It has to be Malay-led, not because of Ketuanan Melayu, but because of Ketuanan Majority.
By Mazlan Manaf
BN/UMNO will win PRU13 and continue to rule Malaysia for the foreseeable future. What does this mean for
Malaysia, and what will it take to change this?
The Sarawak elections have come and gone. As usual, the hype and hope of the opposition prior to polling day swiftly gave way to the reality of BN’s unassailable hold on the electorate. Electoral fraud? Phantom votes? Controlled media? Or is there a more fundamental reason?
There is one thing that those hoping to for a change in Putrajaya have to acknowledge and realize. It’s a very simple fact, but one which seems to have escaped many, judging by the comments and opinions expressed in blogs and various other channels. The fact is that Malays/Bumis make up more than 60 percent of the population.
UMNO, PBB, PAS and Malay PKR parliamentarians occupy 131 of the 222 seat parliament. The numbers mean that Malay votes determine who occupies Putrajaya. Those aspiring to the seat of government simply need to win Malay votes. No two ways about it.
Is politics necessarily race based? Can you have non-race based politics or political parties in Malaysia? At the
moment, unfortunately not. We are a race based society and politics can only reflect society.
BN/UMNO’s stranglehold on the Malay vote stems from its monopoly position in championing the “Malay cause”. To its credit, and perhaps by necessity being the party in power, it has made compromises to ensure that the other component parties and therefore the coalition do get some support from the other communities, particularly when facing PAS.
Isn’t there currently a Malay opposition? There is PAS of course. But PAS seems unable to remold itself into a viable alternative to UMNO. It focuses on too narrow band of issues. It’s a party you vote in for the next world, rather than this one. The so-called “Erdoganists” in the party do not appear to be succeeding in making any significant changes.
What about PKR? Unfortunately PKR derives support from the popularity of certain personalities rather than
issues. Personalities are vulnerable to video clips and various other charges, created or otherwise. Most
significantly, PKR have been very vague and evasive on “Malay” issues. A few seats can be won, but in its current mode, it’s very unlikely that significant inroads can be made into UMNO’s support base.
So where will another 50 years of BN/UMNO rule take us? Current demographic, political and social trends will in all likelihood make BN/UMNO more “Malay”, while the opposition will be increasingly Chinese or non-Bumi.
Society and therefore politics will become more polarized. The cabinet will be composed of UMNO bigwigs and hand-picked non-Malay senators. Money politics and all the other organizational ills of UMNO will infect the government. Law enforcement, the judiciary, GLC’s, public universities and all institutions will not be immune from this plague.
The decay of our institutions will impede our quest to move up the value chain. We will be overtaken economically by Thailand, Indonesia and Sri Lanka. The fall in global rankings of our academic institutions will translate into a further fall in our global competitiveness. Those with the means, the qualifications and the skills, both Bumis and non-Bumis alike will seek greener pastures elsewhere, most popular destinations being Australia and Singapore. Not a pretty picture of the future regardless of whether you are Bumi or not.
Is a Malay opposition viable? Really the question here is, has UMNO done well in championing the “Malay cause”? What exactly is the “Malay cause”? The “Malay cause” that really matters is the economic position of the Malays collectively relative to the others. Issues of Malay language, culture and religion are not nearly as important, in part because none of these issues has as much unanimity amongst the Malays.
It is quite easy to demonstrate that BN/UMNO have failed miserably on this score. On a modest target of 30% wealth for 60% of the population, after 40 years of the NEP these sole champions of the “Malay cause” have reportedly succeeded only in bringing it up to 20%. That means on average, the Malays average wealth level is one-sixth of the others.
TDM puts the blame on the Malays themselves. He conveniently forgets to mention of course the silliness of some of his programs, the worse being the creation of “towering Malays”. He also demonstrates very high tolerance to those who undermined and abused the various schemes, and plundered billions, contributing significantly to the failure.
Perhaps to mask its failure, BN/UMNO promoted through PERKASA the “Ketuanan Melayu” concept. To put it simply, what Ibrahim Ali is trying to tell Malays is that it’s ok that others are on average six times more wealthy than you, you are still the TUAN. It’s ok that others are succeeding in business internationally, and driving the economy domestically, you are still the TUAN. Never mind if you have a degree from a local university, and are working as a caddy in a golf club in Kuala Lumpur as you can’t get a better job because you don’t speak English, you are still the TUAN.
Never mind if some cronies have made off with billions and stashed it overseas, you Malays in the low cost apartments in the cities, in the kampongs, and in the FELDA settlements, you are still the TUAN and nothing can ever change that. The issue of “we were here first and you are pendatang” diverts attention away from the more relevant “you are on average six times richer than us and this imbalance needs to be addressed”. Worse still, this diversion further alienates the non-Bumis.
An alternative coalition or party that can actually win needs to convince all Malaysian voters, BOTH Bumi and non-Bumi that their concerns and worries are recognized and will be addressed. It has to be Malay-led, not because of Ketuanan Melayu, but because of Ketuanan Majority.
It is not enough to criticize, better ideas must be presented. A rational analysis of the NEP could surely identify the successes and failures as a basis for future programs. A similar program could also be proposed for Indians, as they are also behind. Progress and prosperity for all must be the call, complete with programs for achieving this. Advocating meritocracy is simply not enough, and smacks of a refusal to recognize racial economic imbalance as an issue of national concern. A delicate balance has to be maintained to ensure that affirmative action programs do not deprive any community of career and business advancement.
In other words opposition parties have to rebrand themselves as viable and more attractive alternatives, as
opposed to being mere pressure groups for a narrow segment of society or a narrow band of causes. Clear stances have to be stated and formed from a “ruling party” perspective, and not just from the narrow perspective of one community.
Compromises have to be made, and there has to be convergence on difficult issues. Compromise does not mean glossing over and evading issues such as current racial imbalances, vernacular schools versus integration, issues on language and education. This will only serve to maintain the status quo. In this regard, the Pakatan Rakyat Common Platform document fails miserably, as it is simply a collection of motherhood statements and devoid of substance. Proponents of “needs based affirmative action” need to clearly spell out exactly what is meant.
Of course making a clear stance on controversial issues is politically risky. But being the opposition and not in
power, apart from the MP allowances of a few leaders, what is there to lose? On the other hand, without such initiative and without a viable alternative path, all of us have a whole future to lose.
