Why Pakatan Rakyat is NOT going to form the next federal government (UPDATED with Chinese Translation)

This is not a new subject matter. I have written about this so many times in the past. Some of you may remember my article entitled “Votes do not translate into seats”? Well, today, I have no choice but to repeat what I have already told you before.

THE CORRIDORS OF POWER

Raja Petra Kamarudin

My friend Nat Tan has hit the nail on the head in his article entitled 60pc of vote, 93pc of seats? published in The Malaysian Insider today (which you can read here: http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/opinion/article/60pc-of-vote-93pc-of-seats/)

A similar article written by Nia Nymue in his Blog entitled PAP won 90% of seats but only 60% of votes can be read here: http://nianymue.wordpress.com/2011/05/11/pap-won-90-of-seats-but-only-60-of-votes/

They were of course talking about the recent Singapore elections. But they could easily have also been talking about the Malaysian elections. And this is what I want to talk about, again, today — in spite of sounding like I am repeating myself too many times.

On 11th May 1969 (two days before ‘May 13’), the ruling party (then the Alliance Party of Umno, MCA and MIC) won less than 50% of the votes. Yet it managed to form the federal government because it still won more the 50% of the seats in Parliament (66% of the seats to be exact).

In 1974, the newly formed ruling coalition called Barisan Nasional won less than two-thirds of the votes (60.7%) but it still won 88% of the seats in Parliament.

In 1978, the votes for the ruling coalition dropped to 57.2% but it sill won 84% of the seats in Parliament.

In 1982, the votes for the ruling coalition were still below two-thirds (60.5%) but it managed to win 86% of the seats in Parliament.

In 1986, the ruling coalition’s votes dropped to 55.8% but it won 84% of the seats in Parliament.

In 1990, the ruling coalition’s votes dropped even further to 53.4% but it still won more than two-thirds of the seats (71%).

In 1995, the ruling coalition ‘recovered’ by winning 65.2% of the votes which gave them 84% of the seats in Parliament.

1999 was a blow to the ruling coalition. That was the era of Reformasi and the Anwar Ibrahim ‘Sodomy 1’ crisis. In November of that year the ruling coalition won only 56.5% of the votes. Yet it won 77% of the seats in Parliament.

2004 was the best performance in history for the ruling coalition. It won more than 90% of the seats in Parliament. But it managed this on less than two-thirds of the votes (63.9%). So the best Barisan Nasional could do is less than two-thirds of the votes.

Then we come to the ‘landmark’ March 2008 general election. The ruling coalition did its worse since May 1969. It won only 52.2% of the votes (because of Sabah and Sarawak — if not then less than 50% like in 1969). And for the first time since May 1969 it lost its two-thirds majority in Parliament when it won only 63% of the seats.

So, 2004 was the best since Merdeka for the ruling party. And 2008 was the worse in history. But can you see what the figures show? And that is Barisan Nasional loses votes but wins seats. And it is the seats that give it the federal government, not votes.

Note this also.

In the first election (Municipal elections) two years before Merdeka in 1955, Umno and its cronies swept the country in a landslide election victory (they lost only one seat to the opposition).

In the second election (the First Parliamentary election) two years after Merdeka in 1959, the ruling coalition went down.

In the third election in 1964 (the Second Parliamentary election), the ruling coalition went up.

In the fourth election in 1969 (the Third Parliamentary election), the ruling coalition went down.

In the fifth election in 1974 (the Fourth Parliamentary election), the ruling coalition went up.

In the sixth election in 1978 (the Fifth Parliamentary election), the ruling coalition went down.

In the seventh election in 1982 (the Sixth Parliamentary election), the ruling coalition went up.

In the eighth election in 1986 (the Seventh Parliamentary election), the ruling coalition went down.

In the ninth election in 1990 (the Eighth Parliamentary election), the ruling coalition went down.

In the tenth election in 1995 (the Ninth Parliamentary election), the ruling coalition went up.

In the eleventh election in 1999 (the Tenth Parliamentary election), the ruling coalition went down.

In the twelfth election in 2004 (the Eleventh Parliamentary election), the ruling coalition went up.

In the thirteenth election in 2008 (the Twelfth Parliamentary election), the ruling coalition went down.

In the fourteenth election, (2011, 2012, or 2013) whenever it may be, (the Thirteenth Parliamentary election), the ruling coalition will go up or down? If according to the ‘trend’ since 1955 then it must certainly be UP — unless trends lie.

Now, the two points I want to make is this.

The ruling coalition, Barisan Nasional, can still form the federal government even with a minimum of votes. The question would be whether it is with a two-thirds majority or a simple majority. But it will still form the government nevertheless.

The second point is the ruling coalition yoyos from one election to another. It goes down one election and up the next. 2008 was the ‘down’ period. Will the next election be ‘up’ if this trend proves consistent?

Ponder on that. To kick out Barisan Nasional it requires a huge mother of all Earthquake-cum-Tsunami. A slight swing is not enough. Just an Earthquake or just a Tsunami will also not do. It must be a combination of an Earthquake and a Tsunami.

Malaysia Today’s readers are experts when it comes to grumbling, bitching, complaining, lamenting, and blowing hot air. Expert cakap banyak. What are YOU going to do about this sorry scenario? Are you prepared to bite the bullet?

Never mind whether Raja Petra Kamarudin has done a U-turn. Never mind if Raja Petra Kamarudin has sold out or gone over to the other side. Forget about Raja Petra. Fuck Raja Petra. Raja Petra is just one man amongst 28 million Malaysians and he is no longer even living in Malaysia. What are YOU doing?

The billion ringgit question is what are YOU going to do about this predicament other than grumble, bitch, complain, lament, blow hot air, cakap banyak and use Raja Petra Kamarudin as a punching bag to vent your frustrations at not even having the balls to reveal your true identity in Malaysia Today?
 

Translated into Chinese at: http://ccliew.blogspot.com/2011/05/blog-post_5707.html