Najib needs to buy some time

By Oon Yeoh, The Sun

ELECTION fever is in the air. Everyone seems to think national polls are imminent. The general argument in favour of this view is that things might get worse on the economic front later on down the road so we might as well get the election over with before it gets worse.

 

I majored in Economics in university but I’ve never worked as an economist so I’m hardly an expert on the subject. But I know this much: It’s very hard to predict how the economy would be even just a year down the road. Who’s to say the economy won’t be better in 2012 or 2013?

Nevertheless one real economic challenge that Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak has to contend with is how long he can afford to delay cutting subsidies. The country cannot afford to keep the subsidies but if he makes these painful cuts, it would surely cost the government some votes.

The Opposition has predictably criticised the government’s plan to cut subsidies and has promised to keep prices low if it comes to power.

This is not because they don’t understand the need to cut subsidies but what do you expect the Opposition to do, hail such efforts? Naturally the Opposition will want to offer a better alternative. Whether they can afford to maintain the subsidies should they come to power is another question. But for now, supporting subsidies is a popular and electorally-shrewd stance to take. And it’s a problem for Najib.

The problem with holding elections soon – before any subsidy cuts are made – is that the Opposition can claim that subsidy cuts are imminent and that they will be implemented soon after Najib gets a new mandate. With the Internet now widely available, word can get around easily, making this a risky move.

It probably would make more sense for Najib to both hold off on subsidy cuts for another year or so (the country is not going to go bankrupt during that time) and hold off on calling a general election until he can address the many other challenges his coalition faces. He needs to buy himself some time.

There are many non-economic challenges. The Chinese are still upset over a wide range of issues including the Teoh Beng Hock case which is still unsolved and most recently the PSD scholarship debacle that left many straight A students without scholarships.

Meanwhile, the Christians – many of whom are Chinese – are still upset over various issues including the right to use the word “Allah”, Bible seizures, and unsubstantiated allegations about a plot to install a Christian prime minister.

I’ve said before that Najib has a “Chinese Dilemma”, especially in the urban areas. What the recent Sarawak state election shows is that this issue is not limited to the peninsula though it’s certainly more pronounced here.

With an Umno-owned newspaper and an Umno-friendly Malay rights group regularly blaring the “Ketuanan Melayu” message, it’s really up to the non-Malay component parties – namely MCA and Gerakan – to win back the Chinese votes.

The problem is that they are both a shadow of their former selves. MCA and Gerakan (which is nominally multiracial but is, for all intents and purposes, a Chinese party) have an uphill battle convincing the Chinese community they are effective in the face of an increasingly dominant Umno.

Umno might be able to win considerable Malay support and, at the end of the day, this might actually be sufficient to win a simple majority even if the non-Malay component parties fail to deliver. But can a government with little non-Malay representation be viable in a multiracial country like Malaysia?

Perhaps the answer can be found in the blunt message Pahang Mentri Besar Adnan Yaakob delivered to the MCA during the party’s retreat in Genting Highlands over the weekend: “The Chinese must be convinced that MCA can fight for the Chinese … we cannot say we are multiracial if there are no Chinese representatives in BN.”