Why we need BERSIH 2.0 to clean up the SPR?
At what % of the vote will BN secure 50% of the seats? Projecting the % Seats line back to the 50% level, we find that BN only need 39.4% of the popular vote.
By pywong
This is not a very scientific analysis but if we plot the results of the election results over the past 50 years, we can see a very clear pattern. The results are skewed heavily towards BN (or its earlier form – The Alliance Party). Both are dominated by UMNO and UMNO used the SPR to distort the electoral process in their favour.
Consider the graph above. It is a plot of the parliamentary seats won by BN/Alliance vs the popular vote. In 1969, when the Alliance Party won 49.3% of the popular vote, they still managed to secure 66% of the seats. This is a glaring outcome of an unfair voting system. Above 50% of the vote, the advantage to BN became greater, so much so that in 2008, BN won 90.4% of the seats with only 63.9% of the votes.
At what % of the vote will BN secure 50% of the seats?
Projecting the % Seats line back to the 50% level, we find that BN only need 39.4% of the popular vote. In other words, even if the opposition parties were to win 60.6% of the vote, it is only a draw. By any measure, that’s a 2/3 majority. This is the accumulation of several factors:
● Clean the electoral roll
● Reform postal vote
● Use indelible ink
● Free and fair access to media
● Minimum 21 days campaign period
● Strengthen public institutions
● Stop corruption
● Stop dirty politics
Have the Opposition Parties Improved Their Performance?
Yes! Since 1999, when Anwar became the leader of the opposition parties, they have managed to close the gap through better campaign strategies, the effective use of the internet and an active civil society support team. This is manifested in the graph below.
What this graph tells us is that BN have to get 46.3% of the popular vote to secure 50% of the seats. That’s a 6.9% increase compared with past trends. If the BERSIH Demands are met, hopefully this gap can be close until we reach the stage when a party that 50% of the popular vote, it will get 50% of the seats. In practice, this will never be achieved.
