A morning session with The Oracle of Syed Putera-Final Part

I am not finished yet with the MAS-AA Saga. But I shall leave the issue for now as I go through the various financial reports from several research firms. I must thank these people for e mailing me. I will have to relearn some of the financial basics as I have forgotten the meaning. But I shall be back.

Just a bit before we move on. The whole deal involving AA-MAS reminds me of the carving out of spheres of influence between the superpowers of 18 and 19th century. The English got Malay peninsula, The Dutch got the East indies. They signed a treaty. In a very similar way, this government of ours, allowed the airline industry to be carved out between what they currently assessed at the poster boys. MAS will be assigned to compete in the premium sector while AirAsia is effectively given the monopoly to do the LCC. What about Firefly. We haven’t heard a spokesman from this outfit being given a fair airing have we?  I am sure they will have a thing to say.

I have also written about the role of CIMB in this deal. I have cited its record in the deals involving Synergy Drive and the split between Telekom Malaysia and Axiata. In this MAS-AA I am told, CIMB played the role of match maker simpliciter. That is its claim, the public may choose to adopt a different view because its difficult for the public to accept that CIMB, the merit driven, results focused bank does something for altruistic reasons.

As I said, we shall leave the issue for a moment. We shall come back later.

Now, for my final installment of my one morning with the Oracle.

How many states does TDZ indicate can BN remain comfortable I asked? This is a dreaded question admittedly because what Tun Daim said in the past has proven to be prescient. Everyone wants Tun Daim to say something optimistic.

But the Oracle says, his friend remains pessimistic. He can only say, among the states where BN can say its comfortable are Johore, Melaka and Pahang. Even in Pahang, a few parliamentary seats will slip out of BN’s grasps as with a few more state seats. But overall, Daim believes Pahang will remain under BN. why does he mention Pahang in particular, I asked.

Because Tun daim knows you are from Pahang and may he knows you would want to know what’s to become of Pahang.

But didn’t Tun Daim write a very optimistic and encouraging article in Utusan Malaysia  a few months ago? I asked.

Yes, said the Oracle. I did discuss that article with Tun Daim and didn’t I also show you the transcript of that article to you the last time?

You did, said I. you will observe said the Oracle- that Tun Daim wrote the article with so many caveats and qualifications. BN and especially UMNO can win if they do this and that. Its leaders must go to the ground, walkabouts in Subang, in Petaling Steet and in Kg Pandang are not sufficient; people can see through the superficialities and forced smiles and staged walkabouts. Yes people feel good at that time at seeing the PM and his entourage, but after that what – after they are brought back to the realities of thinking about what’s happening in this country.

The oracle mentioned of TUn Daim’s exhortations to the 2 top leaders of BN to go meet up with the cawangan people. Meeting with Ketua Bahagians can be a misleading source of information, they will tell of everything good they have done with a view of getting reelected. You need to go down to the basics-listen to the views in the raw. If possible exclude the ketua bahagians.

But they haven’t done this. The PM is busy with his overseas trip. The DPM will not move lest whatever actions he takes will be misconstrued as upstaging the boss. That can cause some internal upheavals in UMNO.

And you also will notice that UMNO and BN have lost its influence on the younger generation. 80% of the younger voters are not going to vote for the BN.