A ‘strong’ BN win not likely
Investment banker OSK Securities’ prediction that Barisan Nasional will see greater victory in the next general election is ‘simply inflated’.
In its Oct 20 report, the investment bank said: “While we cannot predict the number of seats that BN may clinch, we believe that it will be an improvement over the 63 percent secured in 2008.”
Mohd Ariff Sabri Aziz, Free Malaysia Today
One piece of news that intrigued me greatly in recent weeks was the research undertaken by OSK Securities.
OSK said, according to its research findings, the Barisan Nasional is set to win the next general election with bigger margins.
In its Oct 20 report, the investment bank said: “While we cannot predict the number of seats that BN may clinch, we believe that it will be an improvement over the 63 percent secured in 2008.”
OSK also anticipated the fiercest battles to take place in Kedah, Perak and Selangor.
Now my question is, where did they get their material from?
Were they relying on the “operatives” in JASA, Kemas, MIO, the Special Branch and the numerous point men relied on to carry good stories?
If that be the case, then BN and Umno are doomed.
Anyway, the state which I am most familiar with is my home state – Pahang.
My belief is that overall, OSK has overstated the BN and Umno chances by at least 30 percent.
MCA wiped out in Pahang
What did the report say about Pahang? Pahang has 14 parliamentary seats. The report said BN will retain 12 seats.
It will lose in Kuantan and Indera Mahkota the two seats now held by PKR.
My own assessment is, based on the assumption that its chances are overstated by 30 percent, the BN can only win nine parliamentary seats.
Which are the seats it will lose? Well, it will lose in Jerantut, Raub and Bentong.
No MCA parliamentary hopefuls or incumbents will win in Pahang in 13th general election. The parliamentary seats in Bera and Temerloh are also in jeopardy.
An interesting seat to watch is Cameron Highlands where there is much grumbling about the incumbent parliamentarian, SK Devamany.
If I hear it correctly, MIC president G Palanivel is set to stand in Cameron Highlands. If Devamany is retained, BN may lose that seat.
