Understanding the voters’ psyche (part 2) (UPDATED with Chinese Translation)

ARCHIVES 2012

By MT Webmaster On Jan 22, 2012

Right and wrong is a point of view, not about evidence. And no 63,000 information campaigners can change this perception. Those who think that Anwar is innocent will continue to think so while those who think that Anwar is guilty will do the same. It is all about the position you are taking.

THE CORRIDORS OF POWER

Raja Petra Kamarudin

Let us continue our discussion on understanding the voters’ psyche.

Barisan Nasional is going to deploy 63,000 information campaigners or agents throughout Malaysia, according to what they say, to inform the voters about what Barisan Nasional has done for the country.

Barisan Nasional is assuming that the voters are ignorant and uninformed about what is going on in the country. Don’t underestimate the intelligence of the voters. They know more than you give them credit for.

I once gave a ceramah in a rural part of Malaysia and when I said, “Betul tak? Correct or not?” the 30,000–strong crowd responded with “Correct, correct, correct!”

They were of course referring to the Lingam Tapes episode. This is an ‘Internet issue’. Yet these rural voters who do not own a computer or have access to the Internet knew the issue.

They are not as ignorant as you may think.

But will issues sway the voters? Or is it going to be emotions and sentiments that will sway the voters? And, more importantly, will it be ‘what’s in it for me?’ that will determine how they vote?

I have a sneaky suspicion that the 63,000 information agents that Barisan Nasional is going to deploy will be talking about Anwar Ibrahim’s sexual misconduct. I may be wrong, of course, but I suspect I am going to be proven right. And if this is what Barisan Nasional is going to do then they are wasting their time.

Granted some people are going to be swayed. But how many? There is such a thing as the law of diminishing returns. Once you have reached optimum level you will need to double your effort just to get single digit gains. This means for every 100% increase in effort you may gain, say, an increase of just 5% or so.

Is it worth it? If you need to double your effort you might as well focus that effort in areas where the gains will be proportionate to the effort. Ploughing the land that has already been ploughed will not double your crop output. In fact, the reverse may even happen if the land becomes too soft and turns to mud, which may not be conducive to certain crops, say like tobacco.

I spoke earlier about the 30:40:30 voter ratio where 30% of either side support the government and the opposition respectively while 40% are floating voters or fence sitters. Working on these two groups of 30% will trigger the law of diminishing returns because this group is already locked in. It is the 40% that you need to win over.

And this is the group that Barisan Nasional is trying to win over while Pakatan Rakyat focuses on preaching to the already converted — and are very excited about the crowd turnout.

What is Pakatan Rakyat doing about this 40% group? Are what you are saying reaching them? More importantly, even if what you are saying is reaching them, are they impressed with what you are saying?

If it is true that Barisan Nasional’s strategy in deploying these 63,000 information campaigners is to run down Anwar Ibrahim and talk about his sexual misconduct, then it is an ill thought of strategy. And let me explain why.

There is such a thing called overkill. And when you overkill it does more harm than good. And to continue to attack Anwar on the issue of his sexual misconduct is certainly an overkill. Furthermore, it is going to reduce the election campaign to a Najib verus Anwar exercise.

This is not the American Presidential election, which is a contest between two personalities. If it is going to be a love Najib or hate Najib campaign, and if you hate Najib then choose Anwar, you are not offering the voters too much choice.

Okay, so let’s now talk about the ‘is Anwar innocent or is he guilty’ issue?

There are some who believe that Anwar is innocent. Whatever you say is not going to change their mind and these people will support the opposition.

Then there are those who believe that Anwar is guilty and whatever you say is not going to change their mind. These people will support the government.

Of course, there are some who think that Anwar is guilty but they will still support the opposition anyway, while some believe that Anwar is innocent but they will still support the government.

These people are not bothered about Anwar but are more concerned about the future of the country. And some feel the future lies with Pakatan Rakyat while some feel it lies with Barisan Nasional.

I know of some government supporters who feel that Anwar was subjected to fabricated charges and was given a sham trial. But are they perturbed about this injustice? They are not. They feel that Anwar is guilty so even if he was fixed up it matters not because he is guilty anyway.

In other words, the ends justify the means. Since they could not prove Anwar’s guilt, they cheated to get him convicted. This is okay since Anwar is guilty anyway. The only thing is it is difficult to prove Anwar’s guilt so they need to cheat to get him convicted.

Now, the opposition supporters will cry foul. How can they rig the trial just to get Anwar? If they can’t prove Anwar’s guilt then he should be set free. He should not be sent to jail on fabricated charges and through a sham trial.

Okay, what if the shoe is on the other foot? Say they arrest Najib and fabricate charges against him and give him a sham trial? Then they send him to jail on grounds that he masterminded Altantuya Shaariibuu’s murder.

Will these same people who are screaming about the injustice Anwar suffered now scream the same thing about Najib?

Some would, most would not. These same people will say that no doubt the charge against Najib was fabricated and he was given a sham trial, but he is certainly guilty. So never mind that he was fixed up. There would be no way to prove Najib’s guilt unless they rig the trial.

So, are these people who are screaming about the injustice to Anwar really concerned about justice or is it because Anwar is the opposition leader, their leader? If Najib were made to suffer the same injustice there would be no screams of justice for Najib. They will, in fact, say that it was necessary to rig the trial to get Najib or else there would be no way to get him.

This is the mentality of the voters on both sides of the political divide. It all depends on the position you take. Right can become wrong and wrong become right depending on where your sympathies lie. And anyone who denies this is a liar.

Let me use another example.

Some of you think that Jesus died on the cross and came back to life three days later. You believe this because you are taking the position of a Christian. So, your position guides your belief. Those who do not take the position of a Christian, say like the Muslims, will think that this is utter bullshit.

Some of you think that Muhammad flew up to heaven on a winged horse to meet God — where he also meet Abraham, Moses and Jesus — to receive the commandment of the five times a day prayers. You believe this because you are taking the position of a Muslim. Those who do not take the position of a Muslim, say like the Christians, will think that this is utter bullshit.

So, are your beliefs guided by evidence or guided by your position? Where is the evidence that any of this actually happened? None! But you do not need evidence because you have faith.

Hence, whether you feel that Barisan Nasional or Pakatan Rakyat should run Malaysia depends on your faith as well. Which do you think can do a better job? Is Anwar guilty of sexual misconduct or not? Is Najib guilty of Altantuya’s murder or not?

60% of Malaysians have already decided on the answer and they know how they are going to vote come the next election. The balance 40% is still deciding.

So, what is going to help them decide whom to vote for? Hey, if I can answer that then I should run for Prime Minister of Malaysia.

One thing I can say is this 40% is not bothered about Najib or Anwar or politics. There are other considerations that will influence their decision. And these other considerations are closer to home and involve their every day life. That will determine whom they vote for. And food on the table is one such consideration. And transparency and justice and good governance is not going to put food on the table.

Translated into Chinese at: http://ccliew.blogspot.com/2012/01/blog-post_2718.html