Next election: do or die for Umno
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To win this next election, you’ve got to win back Malay votes. Create some fear… spook the Malaysians into voting for UMNO again. For Najib, it’s not just about winning the election; it’s the survival of BN. The fear of BN is not just that they might lose the election, but that some of them might go to prison. Some of them might be indicted. This is really a do or die situation for them.
These are the key points of the Stratfor e-mail message dated 6 December 2011 (the full text can be read below):
1. ‘To win this next election, you’ve got to win back Malay votes. Create some fear… spook the Malaysians into voting for UMNO again. For Najib, it’s not just about winning the election; it’s the survival of BN. If they lose it will represent a major shift in the Malaysian situation. You will see what is happening in Japan and Taiwan. The fear of BN is not just that they might lose the election, but that some of them might go to prison. Some of them might be indicted. This is really a do or die situation for them.’
2. Again, our insight told us that there is no real possibility that BN will lose; but the key question is really whether they can do any better than in 08. And importantly, can Najib do any better?
3. The rhetoric is an attempt to unify the Malay against the non-Muslim, non-Malay (this why we are seeing coordinated vitriol against DAP), but it’s also an attempt to stay relevant in a new political landscape.
4. Although the 2008 election revealed that Umno could no longer count on the strong support of the majority of Malays, it’s unlikely the main Opposition Pakatan Rakyat alliance will be able to offer a sufficiently credible, stable alternative to the BN.
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I am trying to make an initial assessment of the power balance between the Opposition and Umno. I’ll be talking to our Malaysian source about this on Thurs so please feel free to add anything when reading through (OPC this is not to be looked at as a potential piece yet; I’m really just having a conversation on the list given I’m not in the office. This needs to be hashed out/added to by the team).
1) Is there any challenge to Umno and how might this impact its policy and preparation? This week, Umno Minister Pasir Gudang MP Datuk Seri Khaled Nordin told The Malaysian Insider that his party viewed DAP as its biggest threat in next year’s election, but he definitely predicted that PKR and PAS could be beaten. Umno members have been focusing their attention on DAP. * Umno’s strategy is not surprising given it (& BN) failed to get a two-thirds majority in Parliament in the 2008 general election.
This also fits in nicely with our insight from a few months back:
‘To win this next election, you’ve got to win back Malay votes. Create some fear… spook the Malaysians into voting for UMNO again. For Najib, it’s not just about winning the election; it’s the survival of BN. If they lose it will represent a major shift in the Malaysian situation. You will see what is happening in Japan and Taiwan. The fear of BN is not just that they might lose the election, but that some of them might go to prison. Some of them might be indicted. This is really a do or die situation for them.’
Looking at OS material and again going back to what our insight suggested months ago, I don’t think there is any electoral challenge to Umno in so far as them winning imo. Given the increased rhetoric against DAP/Chinese, it’s quite possible Malays will rally around Umno again, especially given the global economic difficulties on the horizon.
Again, our insight told us that there is no real possibility that BN will lose; but the key question is really whether they can do any better than in 08. And importantly, can Najib do any better? (He is at risk from deputy PM if he does not make up the votes from the last election).
In last week’s General Assembly, Najib outlined five main strengths of Umno; the ability of the party to think of a new idea to take advantage of the new environment, the adoption of the principles of moderation in all fields, whether in terms of governance, power sharing, the economy, race relations and international relations. According to Najib, the three other main strengths were that Umno always placed value on the idea and information market; placing the welfare of the people above everything else and the ability of Umno to fulfill its pledges. The rhetoric is an attempt to unify the Malay against the non-Muslim, non-Malay (this why we are seeing coordinated vitriol against DAP), but it’s also an attempt to stay relevant in a new political landscape.
– Although the 2008 election revealed that Umno could no longer count on the strong support of the majority of Malays, it’s unlikely the main Opposition Pakatan Rakyat alliance will be able to offer a sufficiently credible, stable alternative to the BN. Political intrigues within UMNO itself therefore constitute the biggest threat to political stability in Malaysia.
2) What is the election likely to change?
– If UMNO is successful and Najib claws back the votes he (personally) needs he will continue to concentrate on centralizing power within himself – i.e. the PM’s Department and the Ministry of Finance – as this is the only way that he will be able to implement policies that may contradict with other vested interests and also ensure control of patronage. He already has a history of doing this:
– In 2009, Najib sought to consolidate his leadership of the party by first, ensuring control of the Supreme Council while simultaneously heading off challenges from various “warlords” and other leaders not aligned to him. Except for two Badawi supporters: Khairy Jamaluddin – who became Youth chief and Shahrizat Jalil – who became Wanita chief, the Supreme Council is filled with Najib’s people or those not known to be his enemy, including Muhyiddin.
– Having consolidated his position in UMNO, Najib sought to consolidate his position in government. He retained the post of Finance Minister 1. Ever since the fall-out between Mahathir and Anwar – then Prime Minister against then Deputy Prime Minister as well as Finance Minister, no Prime Minister has been confident enough to give-up this portfolio – considered extremely powerful for its ability to dispense patronage and build support.
– Najib has also strengthened the Prime Minister’s Department. The PMD now has five Cabinet ranked ministers – who have Najib as their direct “boss”. The scope and power of the PMD is also far reaching, regulating economic development for most of Malaysia.
– Najib has also strengthened his control of the Malaysian economy through the control of Khazanah Nasional and other key corporations such as PETRONAS. Khazanah has control of Malaysian GCCs’ which make up almost 50% of capitalisation of the Malaysian Bourse. Although, GCC reforms began during the time of Badawi, Najib has upped the ante and realised that these GCCs have been a severe drag on the Malaysian economy with only a handful being profitable. Najib also knows for a fact that without economic growth UMNO and BN will perish. Hence his insistence to kick-start the Malaysian economy, improve efficiency and national competitiveness.
– Najib has also put his cousin, Hishammuddin Hussein, in charge of the powerful Home Affairs Ministry which ensures “security and public order” in Malaysia. Najib now has at his disposal control of the Royal Malaysian Police and preventive powers such as the Internal Security Act, Emergency Ordinance, Printing and Publishing Act, etc. The military is also expected to be compliant to these two scions of former Prime Ministers (see recent insight on police loyalty for more details).
Policy trends if elected:
– BN has outlined six “national key result areas”, which include tackling corruption, improving education and upgrading basic rural infrastructure
– Specific issues on the reform agenda for the next few years include the phasing out of price controls and subsidies, in a process that is widely considered to be necessary to create a competitive domestic economy. The government will also push ahead with changes to the bumiputera positive-discrimination policies. It has already relaxed a requirement that obliged companies to offer minority equity stakes to bumiputera. It hopes that further reforms will attract greater inflows of foreign direct investment, as it believes that such investment has the potential to be a major engine of growth in the next five years. However, the government is unlikely to dismantle affirmative-action policies altogether for fear of alienating its Malay support base.
3) Result of election on regional relationships:
– As Malaysia’s economic dependence on China grows, uneasiness in Malaysia about Chinese power in South-east Asia is expected to increase. But according to the Economist Intelligence Unit and other papers, China will become an increasingly important trading partner in the next five years. This is of course going to be difficult for Najib to navigate given the ethnic Chinese in the Malaysian population on the one hand and the need to attract investment on the other. He is likely to pursue closer economic links with Singapore too.
QUESTIONS/CONSIDERATIONS:
– Given the OS material and our insight suggesting UMNO is likely to win, our real focus should perhaps lie in how the electorate will respond to the result. Our insight says it depends if there is a perception of fraud. That might force people out to the streets and this is why the recent Assembly Act was passed (as a potential preparation; Malaysia does not want an ‘Arab Spring’ on its hands). There is a possibility that Malaysia is going to experience some political instability at least in the short-term post election (question is how long will it last and will Najib crack down hard?). Will Najib be able to successfully consolidate more power by taking a more aggressive approach?
* The DAP is one of the three major opposition parties in Malaysia, along with the PKR and PAS, that are seen as electable alternatives to the Barisan Nasional coalition of parties. It is one of the component parties of Pakatan Rakyat (or known as People’s Alliance).
The party’s vision is to establish a peaceful and prosperous social democracy that can unite its disparate races and diverse religions and cultures based on a Malaysian Malaysia concept of forging a Malaysian race grounded on universal moral values, offering equal access and opportunity, upholding democratic governance and the rule of law, creating wealth and distributing it equitably and fighting corruption. Though its core constituency consists of Malaysian Chinese, the DAP receives support from the Malaysian Indians and Malays. The party’s strongholds are the states of Penang, Perak and the Federal Territory of Kuala Lumpur.
