Can the general election be further delayed?

By LIM SUE GOAN
Translated by SOONG PHUI JEE
Sin Chew Daily

According to the latest rumour, it is said that the next general election will probably fall in September, not June.

Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak recently said that the date of the election will be a surprise. It seems to comply with the above speculation. However, he also pointed out that the support for the BN is peaking, including in Selangor. If it is the case, then what is the Prime Minister still waiting for?

If the general election is not being held in the next three months, it might be because the BN needs some time to solve thorny problems, particularly the rare-earth refinery plant issue, to fight for votes from swing, urban, young and Chinese voters.

The BN is facing many problems. On 25 March 2012, when about 10,000 members of the public were attending the rally protesting against the shortage of teachers in Chinese primary schools, about 100 members of the Hindu Rights Action Force (Hindraf) and other organisations brought a watermelon to the Prime Minister Office (PMO) in Putrajaya and smashed it on the ground, demanding a solution for the extreme poverty of the Indians.

Members of the public were so agitated at the rally, showing that more efforts are required to gain Chinese votes. Although the strength of Hindraf has been polarised and grievances of the Indians have also been abated, there is still possibility of resurgence.

In fact, the BN’s governance mechanism has faced challenges even before the 2008 general election. On 25 November 2007, Hindraf successfully gathered 30,000 people while 40,000 people joined the first Bersih rally on 10 November the same year.

On 9 July 2011, about 50,000 people attended the Bersih 2.0 rally and 30,000 participated in the Himpunan Hijau 2.0 on 26 February this year. They are then followed by the rally on 25 March to protest against the shortage of vernacular school teachers, as well as the Himpunan Hijau 3.0 scheduled on 13 April.

The high numbers of attendance of these rallies tell us that the anti-incumbent sentiment is still high and the effects brought by Umno’s 1Malaysia concept, moderate line and policies are not as effective as expected.

The crux of the problem lies on the weak promotion on political reform. There are still weaknesses in the administrative system and therefore, the Pakatan Rakyat has continued pointing out its management weaknesses to offset the effects of various transformation plans.

The MCA and the DAP have engaged in a new war of words after Deputy Education Minister Datuk Dr Wee Ka Siong claimed to have been attacked at the rally. The MCA is again in an disadvantaged position due to the inconsistent arguments of the BN in responding to attack incidents over the past few decades.

To fight for swing votes, the BN must be daring to eliminate bureaucracy and administrative deviations. Only by doing so, old problems could be resolved and the stereotype of swing voters on the BN could be broken.

If the general election is held in September and the thorny problems remain unresolved, the BN might still be able to keep its regime with votes from its basic supporters, but there is no way to win back the two-thirds majority.

Moreover, how is the BN going to ensure no more scandal will be exposed in the coming few months?

Holding the election in the end of this year or early next year might also face economic risks. It is because no one knows whether the US will attack Iran or not, whether the international crude oil prices will rise to US$150, or whether the Euro zone will be struck by another debt crisis.

If the economy goes down, the good feelings created by money distribution and pay rise will be gone forever.

We are now in a period of political chaos with blurred concepts of right and wrong. Regardless when the next general election will be held, the outcome will be difficult to predict.