Myth 5: Anwar’s claimed 300,000

ARCHIVES 2012

By admin-s On May 10, 2012

By having it in a stadium, where most are usually seated and quite stationary, it is easy to estimate the crowd. But they can’t spin to claim the crowd to be as much as 100,000 to 300,000.

Another Brick in the Wall

Anwar Ibrahim claimed the attendance for Bersih 3.0 was 300,000. Raja Petra Kamaruddin wrote that it could be 250,000 or 200,000 or 150,000 or 100,000.

One thing we learned of opposition’s estimate is that their announced number tend to be a multiplication of their estimated number by ten.

On the night of Black 14 gathering on April 14, 2008 at Kelab Sultan Sulaiman, Anwar proclaimed to the crowd that the gathering that night was 15,000. We were there pretending to go along screaming, “Reformasi! Takbir! Suara Rakyat, Suara Keramat!“

One old hand at estimating crowd responded, “Nak mampus 15,000?” His estimate was only 1,500. He explained that at full capacity the field, a football field can only take up 2,000. The crowd was only pack in front but generally sparce behind. It could be as low as 1,200.

Back to Bersih 3.0, Al Jazeera only placed it at 25,000. And immediately, they were accused as pandering to the Government censorship. Wonder what BBC estimated since they admitted being censored by Government.

Most pro-Government media or blogs put the number at between 25,000 to 35,000.

Still nevertheless a credible number than Bersih 2.0 which was around 7-8,000. Opps … one can hear the Bersih 2.0 demonstraters, that was soaked by the water cannon, claiming the moving crowd was 25,000.

Avoiding Stadium

When Bersih 2.0 called for Stadium Merdeka, initially the authorities were reluctant. Then Prime Minister, Dato Najib called their bluff and offered Stadium Merdeka.

Everyone was too consumed to call him flip flop but most forgotten that Anwar and Ambiga didn’t accept it. They wanted the streets for it’s dynamics, as PAS Member of Parliament, Dr Dzulkifli Ahmad described it.

This time the Government offered Stadium Merdeka and they refused. They were determine to invade Dataran Merdeka. Why?

Forget the thought of a repeat of Tahrir Square. Marina Mahathir refuse to think there was such an intention. Clever and informative … maybe lurus bendul (innocent straight arrow) would right.

The reason is by having it in a Stadium, it will be a daunting task on their part to fill it. Otherwise it looks barren and embarrassing.

See the picture above of PAS’s Solat Hajat program in a closed Stadium in Shah Alam. Imagine how much of the seats were taken up during the ceramah session later.

Another reasonis that by having it in a stadium, where most are usually seated and quite stationary, it is easy to estimate the crowd. But they can’t spin to claim the crowd to be as much as 100,000 to 300,000.

Since we are talking about stadium, if Bersih had held it in Stadium Merdeka and filled it up to the brim (off course, stadium authority will not allow the crowd to step on the grass), the full capacity is 45,000.

Can Bersih 3.0 crowd fill-up Stadium Merdeka?

Anwar claimed before th eevent that there will be 500,000 coming. Then he must need a bigger stadium. It will be a great propaganda to have a standing room only event with crowds spilling over into the Stadium parking lots.

He should have taken either the Shah Alam Stadium or the National Stadium Bukit Jalil.

Shah Alam Stadium is a multi-purpose stadium located in Shah Alam, Malaysia. It is used mostly for football matches but also has facilities for athletics. The stadium is the home of Selangor FA, and has a capacity of 80,000.

While the full capacity of National Stadium Bukit Jalil is 100,000. The Bukit Jalil’s capacity makes it the 25th largest stadium in the world and the 9th largest football stadium in the world. It is also the largest stadium in Southeast Asia.

The dynamic are all there but Anwar refused. Why?

Frankly, deep inside Anwar he knows he can’t fill it up. It is a daunting task to do so within few weeks of preparations. Usually, only sporting or entertainment event can fill up a stadium with such crowd.