Sabah: Still a ‘fixed deposit’?
Sabah will be a focal point in the coming general election, especially after the defections of two BN MPs. If the opposition can avoid contesting three-cornered contests then Sabah’s status as a BN ‘fixed deposit’ state could hang in the balance, writes Arnold Puyok.
ALIRAN
The upcoming 13th General Election is sure to be a hotly contested election. It will be a litmus test for Prime Minister Najib Razak who is banking on his “transformational agenda” to return the BN to power.
Indeed, to restore the BN to a two-thirds majority. For PR, the election is seen as Anwar Ibrahim’s last chance to take over Putrajaya after the alleged September 16 coup failed. Even though many of the seats contested come from Peninsular Malaysia, the real battle will be in Sabah and Sarawak.
In the 2008 General Election, the 54 seats from East Malaysia ensured BN a simple majority win. Without the 54 seats, BN would have lost power to the opposition, in the event of party crossovers. Consequently Sabah and Sarawak are considered as BN’s “fixed deposits”.
This article is an attempt to look into the prospects and challenges of the 13th General Election in Sabah especially in light of the withdrawal of two Sabah leaders from BN – Wilfred Bumburing of UPKO (United Pasok Momogun Kadazandusun Association) and Lajim Ukin of Sabah UMNO (United Malays National Organisation).
With the persistent attacks on Sabah Chief Minister, Musa Aman for his alleged involvement in an international money laundering scandal and the Wilfred-Lajim factor, BN is expected to face a tough challenge from the opposition to retain Sabah. The article argues that if the opposition is able to form a strong alliance and avoid contesting against each other, it could affect Sabah’s fixed deposit status. Similarly, failure on BN’s part to address the perennial Sabah issues such as the illegal immigrant problems and state autonomy will affect its chances of returning to power.
Categorising the seats contested
For analytical purposes, all the 60 state and 25 parliamentary seats contested in Sabah will be divided into three categories: “safe” BN seats (where BN has more than an 80 percent chance of winning), “marginal” or “50-50” seats (where electoral support can go either to BN or the opposition) and “opposition” seats (where the opposition has more than an 80 percent chance of winning). This prospect is based on the following two factors: 1) Changes in the number of registered voters according to age and ethnicity and 2) Less multi-cornered but more one-to-one contests in the “marginal” areas. The opposition here refers to PR comprising PKR (Parti Keadilan Rakyat), DAP (Democratic Action Party), and PAS (Parti Islam Se-Malaysia). The other local-based opposition parties are STAR (State Reform Party) Sabah and SAPP (Sabah People’s Progressive Party).
The safe BN seats
There are 42 safe BN state seats and most are Muslim-majority. At the parliamentary level, there are nine safe BN seats with a large number of Muslim Bumiputera voters and they all belong to UMNO. (See Table 1 & 2) With the absence of alternative Muslim-based parties, the majority of the Muslim electorate will remain in UMNO. Among the weapons used by UMNO to maintain Muslim support are the persistent championing of Islam as a religion that unites the Muslims and the practice of on-the-spot development funds allocation.
The Muslim-majority areas will be BN’s key seats that will help maintain the party’s grip on power. PKR appears to fail to take the Muslim support from UMNO. One of the reasons is the lack of credible and popular Muslim leaders in the party. The present Sabah PKR chief, Ahmad Thamrin is not popular among the Muslim electorate while another well-known Muslim leader, Ansari Abdullah, does not have strong Muslim support beyond his base in Tuaran.
There is also the assumption that UMNO is falling apart due to the factions formed by supporters of Musa Aman and Federal Minister, Shafie Afdal. However, the so-called factions do not affect UMNO that much. So far, Musa has been able to keep the Muslim support in UMNO intact. Musa has also successfully defused the Bajau challenge led by Salleh Said, a former Chief Minister and currently Sabah UMNO deputy chief.
Despite the attacks on Musa for his alleged involvement in a financial scandal, Najib seems to be mindful not to pursue the case with intensive investigations. Najib knows that Musa has the clout to decide the fate of BN in Sabah. Asking Musa to resign before the election would put Sabah BN at great risk. The question is, if Musa resigned, who will be the most likely candidate to replace him? Many people believe that Najib has an eye on Shafie, his loyal ally from Semporna, Sabah. But others have mentioned Salleh Said, Musa’s number two in Sabah UMNO. Salleh is considered more liberal, in tune with the times and therefore, potentially, acceptable to Najib. Another possible candidate is Hajiji Noor, a senior UMNO member in the Sabah Cabinet.
The marginal or 50-50 seats
There are 10 marginal or 50-50 seats at the state level. Of the 10 seats, three are currently held by Gerakan (Parti Gerakan Rakyat Malaysia), two each by LDP (Liberal Democratic Party), PBS (Parti Bersatu Sabah), and SAPP respectively, and one by UPKO. The three seats currently held by Gerakan previously belonged to LDP (1) and SAPP (2) previously. After an internal party conflict, Peter Pang, Au Kam Wah and Raymond Tan left their parties and joined the Gerakan. The three seats are considered as marginal as they were won under LDP and SAPP tickets. There is a high possibility that the voters might change their support to the opposition as a mark of protest over the decision of their leaders to join the peninsular-based Gerakan. The two state seats currently held by LDP, Tg. Kapor and Merotai, were won by Teo Chee Kang and Pang Yuk Ming after the opposition failed to agree on a one-to-one contest in 2008. The opposition’s chances of winning the two seats from BN are high in the upcoming election if it can avoid multi-cornered fights.
The other two marginal seats are in Tandek and Kadamaian. The PBS won the two seats in 2008 by marginal majorities. Grassroots sentiments in the two areas seem to indicate that the voters are unhappy with BN over its failure to address a number of local issues such as Native Customary Rights (NCR) land and poverty. The BN’s handling of the Tambatuon dam in Kadamaian has also been strongly criticised. Many people are also calling for the incumbent BN representatives to step down and to allow “winnable” candidates to take over. There are several lobby groups in Kadamaian that call for the incumbent Herbert Timbun Lagadan to make way for a younger candidate.
Likas and Luyang are regarded as marginal seats simply because both were won under SAPP when the party was still with BN. With SAPP now outside the ruling party, the opposition has raised its stakes in the two areas. The SAPP’s victory in the two areas in 2008 with marginal majorities shows that the opposition is highly popular there. In fact, had the DAP and PKR agreed to co-operate, SAPP would have lost in the 2008 election. The voters’ mood in the upcoming election will depend on SAPP’s next course of action.
So far, SAPP has not made any decision as to whether it would re-join BN or remain with the opposition. SAPP appears to have a “game” of its own. SAPP’s neither “here-nor-there” stance has not been well received by other local-based opposition parties even though its leaders could be seen attending political rallies organised by other opposition parties. SAPP’s future will depend on how well it can lobby to contest in Chinese and mixed areas. But again this will be difficult as DAP has strongly indicated its desire to contest in Chinese-majority areas. Unless SAPP and STAR Sabah are willing to compromise, they will have to contest against each other in mixed areas.
There are 13 marginal seats at the parliamentary level. Four of the seats are currently held by UPKO and UMNO, three by PBS, and two by SAPP. Most of the marginal parliamentary seats are non-Muslim Bumiputera-majority. The prospect of all 12 seats remaining with BN is dependent upon the reaction of the voters to the RCI (Royal Commission of Inquiry) to investigate the presence of illegal immigrants in Sabah and leadership issues.
Three of the main parties representing the Kadazandusuns are PBS, UPKO and PBRS (Parti Bersatu Rakyat Sabah). Joseph Pairin Kitingan, the president of PBS, is now regarded by the Kadazandusuns as an ineffective leader who is not as aggressive as before in fighting for state rights and autonomy. Pairin has defended PBS’ “accommodative” and “census-building” approach but the Kadazandusuns see it as a sign of weak leadership.
Bernard Dompok, the president of UPKO is also in a dilemma after the withdrawal of his deputy, Wilfred Bumburing from BN. It is believed that more UPKO members will leave the party, if not sooner, then later. Dompok, who was previously praised for speaking against the banning of the word “Allah” in Catholic churches, is now slowly losing influence in Penampang. Joseph Kurup who leads another Kadazandusun-based party, PBRS, could lose his seat in Pensiangan if he fails to address local sentiments there. He won the seat uncontested in 2008 after the candidacy of the opposition candidate was rejected on “technical grounds”.
The performance of the Kadazandusun-based BN parties will be seriously affected given the negative perception of the Kadazandusun electorate towards Kadazandusun leaders. The Kadazandusun voters have the habit of “kicking” their leaders out of office. This was evident in 1995 when many of the Kadazandusun leaders (for instance, Bernard Dompok and Jeffrey Kitingan) who left PBS in 1994 were voted out. In fact, BN lost in all the non-Muslim Bumiputera seats in 1995.
