Malaysian Psephology: Lembah Pantai
(The Sun Daily) – The Lembah Pantai electorate has apparently increased to around 71,000 voters, compared with 56,650 in 2008. This would translate to a 25% increase in registered voters in the four years since 2008, in sharp contrast to the 9% growth over the previous 13 years.
BETWEEN 1995 and 2008, the number of registered voters in Lembah Pantai had grown by about 9% from 52,108 to 56,650.
Ethnic breakdown: In March 2008, Malays constituted 53.2%, Chinese 25.7%, Indians 20.1% and the rest around 1%.
The percentage of voting had grown consistently over the 13 years (from 65% to 73%). Ballot papers issued increased by 21% to 41,289 in 2008 from 33,984 in 1995, indicating that an increasing number of the Lembah Pantai electorate were casting their votes.
Support for Datuk Seri Shahrizat Abdul Jalil, from Barisan Nasional, had declined by 20% between 1995 and 2008. Considering the growth of registered voters, the actual decline was around 23%.
In 1999, Keadilan fought a close battle with BN, losing the seat by only 1,454 votes. This provided early indications that splits and differential perspectives were arising in the main ethnic group. Malay urban voters were becoming more discerning and considering a wider range of issues beyond basic ethnic priorities.
In 2008, PKR wrested the seat with 52.62% of the votes versus 45.61% polled by BN. While the gap in votes polled is only 7%, this seat witnessed a major swing. From losing the seat by 10,542 votes in 2004, PKR worked the ground and connected adequately with at least an additional one-third of the electorate, besides retaining most of its own support base. In the final touchdown, the swing factor was over 15%.
Despite the swing factor and breakthrough victory in 2008, incumbent Nurul Izzah Anwar said she is working even harder in 2012-13 to cover a substantial gap, allegedly caused by gerrymandering.
The Lembah Pantai electorate has apparently increased to around 71,000 voters, compared with 56,650 in 2008.
This would translate to a 25% increase in registered voters in the four years since 2008, in sharp contrast to the 9% growth over the previous 13 years.
Nurul Izzah told theSun this was a major concern, along with lack of specific details regarding the identity of the new voters on the electoral roll. She was trying to work with the Election Commission on these issues.
She described the constituency as a “microcosm of Malaysia”. She has a trusted core team of 50 people plus a wider base of division heads and volunteers. Besides groundwork, the team is also analysing the historical voter turnout trends within the constituency to address any new challenge.
Nurul Izzah will most likely face BN’s Datuk Raja Nong Chik Raja Zainal Abidin in Lembah Pantai in GE13.
