Hung Parliament More Likely Outcome of 13th GE

ARCHIVES 2013

By admin-s On Mar 10, 2013

Tengku Razaleigh, who wants to revive the Old Umno, would be willing to join a PR+ Government with 10 to 15 Old Umno seats since Pas wants him as PM and Dap supports the idea. No PM’s post, No Razaleigh. Razaleigh won’t join a PR+ Gov’t if BN gets at least 112 seats on their own, i.e. without Jeffrey and Waytha, to form the Federal Government. Jeffrey and Waytha would be willing to join a Razaleigh Government provided he’s willing to meet their demands. Waytha is a Kelantanese like Razaleigh. Jeffrey is close to both Waytha and Razaleigh.

Joe Fernandez

Anwar Ibrahim predicted in a Bloomberg Report carried by Malaysiakini on Fri that he will get a 10-seat majority in Parliament to collect 116 seats. He promises that there will be no witch hunts.

Since when did Anwar’s predictions come true? Also, of course there will be witch hunts. It goes with the territory. Who’s he kidding? Didn’t he say that he will cancel all Petronas contracts to Mahathir’s children? Ten seat majority would mean 111 seats + 10 = 121 seats. There are 222 seats in Parliament. Anwar would be lucky if the Malays who supported him in 2008 still stick with him. Malays generally support families and a system like Umno and Pas, not one-man shows like PKR. He can count on the new voters among the Malays and the younger ones.

Anwar can’t deny that fewer Indians and Orang Asal would vote for PR, especially PKR, in the forthcoming GE compared with 2008. He should chew on that thought in the wake of his quarrel with Hindraf Makkal Sakthi and Jeffrey Kitingan.

Probably, in compensation, Chinese support for PR will increase even further especially in Sabah and Sarawak.

I predict that PR will get only 105 seats at the most, BN will get at least 107 seats, while the rest i.e. 10 seats at the most will go to the 3rd Force led by Jeffrey and P. Waythamoorthy.

Or Jeffrey and Waytha can add their seats to BN’s 107 seats to take the total tally pass 111 seats. But will Razaleigh stick with such a Government especially when he wants to revive Old Umno, PBB may support PR and Sabah Umno may defect to PKR?

Jeffrey’s and Waytha’s game plan appears to be to support whoever is weaker to form the Federal Government. All the scenarios so far do not take into account strong rumours that MIC would pull out of BN and sign up with PR before the 13th GE once Parliament expires on April 28 or Nomination Day whichever comes first. It’s best to cross the bridge when we come to it. Post-13th GE, Umno is likely to open its doors to non-Malays since BN in Malaya would be history.

Indian Polls Strategy for the 3rd Force

(1) Non-performing incumbents — which means all — must be thrown out;

(2) the Federal and state Gov’ts, whether BN or PR, must be brought down every GE;

(3) there’s a need to weaken the Federal Gov’t; and

(4) there’s a need to demonstrate that Hindraf has more Indian support than BN & PR combined.

No MIC seat, even if not part of the 67 parliamentary seats & related state seats in Malayawhere Indians decide, must be left unchallenged by Hindraf.

BN may lose all seats where Malays form the biggest block of voters but are not more than 50 %. Umno will give these seats to BN. PR will field Malays here and has a good chance of winning all these seats especially if Hindraf supports it.

Umno will stand in seats which have more than 50 % Malay voters and will be challenged by PKR and Pas. No clean sweep here because the Malays are split and non-Malays, especially the Chinese, will support PR.

3rd Force Polls Strategy in Sabah, Sarawak

In Sabah and Sarawak, BN will not be able to repeat its performance of 2008.

Minimum 14 parliamentary seats — Sabah 7, Sarawak 7 — will fall to the opposition in the two Nations in Borneo i.e. five to Star (incorporating Usno) in Sabah; one (Mas Gading) to either Star or PKR in Sarawak; two (Kota Kinabalu and Sandakan) to either Star or Dap in Sabah; and six to Dap in Sarawak..