Political suicide or stroke of genius?

 

Mohsin Abdullah, fz.com 

PAKATAN’S move in putting Lim Kit Siang to contest Gelang Patah is obvious. Political analysts say it’s to win all Chinese majority seats in the state of Johor. Not only Gelang Patah. Using Lim’s “image” and “stature” to garner the votes.

 

Still, before that, the analysts as well as strategists within Pakatan itself agree that the major challenge now is to get the entire Pakatan fraternity, in particular the grassroots in Johor, to “see the big picture”.

 

The big picture, of course, is winning GE13 and forming the federal government. But isn’t that obvious? Why reiterate the need to see the big picture? If not for anything else, it’s to “pre-empt any chance” of an “implosion” arising from the move of bringing in Lim to Johor. 

 

Pakatan strategists agree “there can be problems”, citing the recent PKR-DAP spat as an example. Other “potential  time bombs” could be a PKR backlash as Gelang Patah has always been their’s to contest and MCA man turned PKR leader Datuk Chua Jui Meng’s “disappointment” of being overlooked after eying the Gelang Patah candidacy for some time. Enter the big picture.

 

“If they understand the bigger picture, no one needs to throw a tantrum,” said a DAP headquarters source. PAS GE13 director Dr Hatta Ramli agrees that Pakatan supporters should see the bigger picture but “at the same time leaders should appreciate the contribution and sacrifices of grassroots and local leaders”.

 

Lim’s Gelang Patah candidacy was announced by Opposition Leader cum PKR Ketua Umum Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim himself. “I believe Anwar speaks for his party and this is for the good of Pakatan,” said Hatta. 

 

Already word has it that Chua will be given the relative safe seat of Bakri to contest. And said Hatta: “I’m not ruling out other compromises to sooth any ill feeling”.

 

According to a Chinese political affairs watcher, DAP is confident of winning in constituencies where PKR candidates had failed previously. And Gelang Patah is one of them. “So DAP managed to convince Anwar to give them the seats to contest.”

 

According to another political observer,  Pakatan aims to win 15 parliamentary seats in Johor which will help in its quest of taking over the federal administration. “Pakatan feels winning the parliamentary seats in Johor is realistic. If they do win the state government, it will be a big bonus.”

 

The DAP source has this to say: “Johor is a front line state for DAP in GE13. And the best person to lead the attack is Lim Kit Siang. He is anak  (a child of) Johor. Like the Malay saying “sirih pulang ke gagang (going back to his roots).”

 

And, said the political observer, Lim needs to win Gelang Patah as well as help the opposition pact win all Chinese majority seats. “With him leaving the safe seat of Ipoh Timur, it shows DAP is serious in Johor.” 

 

The observer went on to say:  “All the while the Chinese in the state have not been part of the political tsunami, but this time the DAP feels it’s going to be different.”

 

The Chinese political affairs watcher however said it’s not going to be easy for DAP, and in particular Lim, in Gelang Patah. But to the DAP source, Gelang Patah is tough “but winnable for Pakatan”.

 

Still the Chinese political affairs watcher said while “most Chinese voters are rumoured to have made up their minds to kick out BN out of Johor, we must not lose sight of the fact that the majority of Malay and Indian voters are likely to defend BN”.  And he also pointed out there are no parliamentary seats in Johor which have more than 60% Chinese voters.

 

Yet a PAS activist has an interesting theory, something he has been saying for quite some time. And I’ve written about this last year. It’s worth repeating. He said that in the 1999 general election, Umno lost the Malay votes due to the sacking of Anwar by then PM Datuk Seri (now Tun) Dr Mahathir Mohamad and what saved BN then was the Chinese votes as admitted by Dr Mahathir himself.