Pakatan Rakyat’s chances in GE 13

 

Unlike 2008, Idealism is not going to be a dominant feature of the 2013 elections, pragmatism is. PR has not sufficiently differentiated itself from BN but BN has consistently proved that it is stronger. When the differences between two sides is not pronounced, the pragmatic inclination in people will generally sway their decision in support of the side that appears stronger. 

An opinion of Nehru S.M, private citizen

If the elections is called soon, I think the the list of factors that favors a Pakatan Rakyat victory in GE 13 is short.

First, there is Anwar Ibrahim. Anwar Ibrahim has always attracted people with his aura of a hero and a underdog, but heroes need a strong villain and underdogs shine brighter in defeat. Since Dr. M’s retirement and the opposition’s substantial victory in the 2008 election, Anwar Ibrahim’s heroic aura has generally been on the wane.

Then there is the theme of change. The opposition represents the side that represents change in Malaysian politics and Malaysians are as a whole still pro change. However, a nation’s inclination to change is powered chiefly by hopes of future profit. That the opposition has been largely unable to decide on how they are going to cut the profit pie as different segments of Malaysians clamor for their share would probably dampen Malaysians’ eagerness for change.

Third is the case of corruption. People might be against corruption, but in popular imagination, a person who steals 50 ringgit is a thief, but a person who steals a a billion ringgit is a great man. That the opposition generally exposes multibillion ringgit corruption cases has the unfortunate effect of elevating the personal prestige of those they seek to diminish.

Also, too big a corruption case lacks emotional appeal. A thousand ringgit theft off a mother of 5 pulls the heartstrings of an average voter in a way that a 100 billion of illicit cash flow out of the country never could.

Then there is the case of institutional reform to increase efficiency and correct past wrongs. This is probably the weakest of opposition promise because in truth, voters either don’t really know what it means or they don’t care. Chiefly, it excites only academics.

Lastly, to curb the abuses in power amongst government officials. While outwardly, Malaysians generally are against the abuses of power by govt officials, especially by the police, but in principal, we are are not as against it as we appear to be. The truth is, we have always known that suspects are probably tortured during police investigations and that bribery is not an uncommon way to conclude business with government agencies, and we are ok with it. If we have any complains about about abuses of power, it tends to be about the scale. As
strange as it sounds, Malaysians in general only disapprove of bribery and torture in custody if it is done without finesse and moderation.

Also, the across board revolutionary fever that helped PR in gaining a foothold in the corridors of power in 2008 has cooled off.

5 years on, the belief that change will bring something better, or that the fight for change is a holy cause, or that change can be brought forth quickly and without much difficulty has largely dissipated.

Unlike 2008, Idealism is not going to be a dominant feature of the 2013 elections, pragmatism is. PR has not sufficiently differentiated itself from BN but BN has consistently proved that it is stronger. When the differences between two sides is not pronounced, the pragmatic inclination in people will generally sway their decision in support of the side that appears stronger.

Also, that the PR campaign has the misfortune of being viewed outside of the middle class, tertiary educated and Chinese electorate largely as a middle class, tertiary educated and Chinese agitation isolates their appeal and will cost them support.

The Sulu army’s incursion and the death of Malaysian army personals also does not favor the opposition. People have a natural inclination of forgetting their differences and rallying together when faced with external threats and this favors the incumbents. Also, the fact that all of the fallen army personals are Malays also rattles the “we are in this together through thick and thin” idealogy that is promoted by the opposition. Since the Malays would now feel that they have sacrificed more, they are less likely to be attracted to the idea of equal sharing promoted by the opposition.

Combined together, and barring any drastic changes, not only do I think that PR’s chances of winning is slim, but that BN is going to win with an improved margin.