Muhyiddin, the other Prime-Minister-in-Waiting
Don’t complain five years later that Muhyiddin is a Prime Minister without popular mandate. This is his election, not Najib’s, much like the 2008 poll was Najib’s, not Abdullah’s.
Wong Chin Huat, fz.com
IN hindsight, the 2008 elections were really a choice between, not Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi and Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim, but between Datuk Seri Najib Razak and Anwar.
One reason Najib is attacked today for not dissolving parliament early is that he did not win his mandate in 2008, as the BN victory was won in Abdullah’s name.
This was however true only if we were completely ignorant of the possibility that Abdullah would be significantly weakened, thanks to his predecessor Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad’s relentless attack.
If Abdullah could not rein in the warlords in UMNO in 2004 despite a 91% parliamentary majority, how could he survive his party comrades’ onslaught after losing the conventional two-thirds majority. And denying Abdullah his two-thirds was what Mahathir, the opposition and a large segment of the public tacitly agreed on.
In that sense, the 2008 elections were Najib’s inaugurating elections, just unannounced. Of course, some would cry foul for not being informed explicitly of the built-in succession agenda.
In the same way, the 2013 elections may be Muhyiddin’s inaugurating elections but we have no excuse that we are not explicitly informed. For a year or so, many UMNO leaders have been talking aloud of the BN restoring its two-thirds majority, effectively denying Najib his chance of a soft landing – i.e. continuing to rule with a modest majority.
In the past five years, Malaysians have become bolder and bolder in standing up for their rights, and opposing unpopular government policies.
As shown in the Psy concert, they would not even “give face” to the Prime Minister by hiding their rejection.
How likely is it for the BN under Najib to even just do better than when under Abdullah?
In 2008, BN was eight seats away from the super-majority. Based on the outcome of the 2011 Sarawak state election, the ruling coalition will lose at least six more parliamentary seats there to the opposition.
This is before taking into consideration the marginal seats that BN may lose due to the recently released video clip implicating Taib and his relatives in land sale scandals.
Now, out of the 15 seats currently held by MCA, the BN’s second largest party, 13 have an electorate with one third or more being Chinese voters.
If the Chinese support for the opposition goes to 80%, MCA must be able to get at least two-thirds of non-Chinese votes to keep these seats.
With MCA chief Chua Soi Lek’s sensitive-sounding statements on Islam, it is quite unlikely that MCA can even count on a two-thirds majority amongst the Malay voters.
Even before including a couple of Sabah seats that are expected to be lost, thanks to the Project M and the government’s handling of the Sulu incursion, the BN may lose up to 19 more seats alone due to the Sarawak and Chinese discontents.
Now, can UMNO – the strongest party in BN – deliver 19 more seats to just maintain the status quo in 2008, let alone another eight more seats to regain the two-third majority?
Read more at: http://fz.com/content/muhyiddin-other-prime-minister-waiting
