Battle will be fought on popularity, not policies

AT LAST, Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak announced the dissolution of Parliament yesterday after obtaining royal consent from the King.

Yesterday also marked the fourth anniversary of Datuk Seri Najib’s premiership- he took over the helm from Tun Abdullah Badawi on April 3, 2009.

Mr Abdullah was forced to step down after Barisan Nasional’s (BN) weak performance in the 2008 general election.

Mr Najib’s announcement was not at all a surprise. Malaysia has been in election mode since the first week Mr Najib became Prime Minister. Right from the beginning, many people had expected him to seek a mandate by calling a snap election.

But Mr Najib obviously thought differently. As a result, when the announcement was finally made, many Malaysians were relieved rather than surprised.

The Election Commission will soon announce the dates for nomination and polling. Campaigning will start after Nomination Day.

But that is just the formal process. In reality, campaigning started about two years ago, with handouts and goodies, or promises of handouts and goodies, being the most common campaign material.

This election therefore is not a battle of serious policies. It is simply a battle of who can be more populist.

Hence, we see a raft of proposals designed to win voters, such as welfare assistance policies.

The opposition Pakatan Rakyat (PR) made a lot of such promises in its manifesto. The ruling BN coalition, on the other hand, does not just promise, but has been doing exactly that through various government agencies.

It is no secret that this election will be the toughest for BN. Never in Malaysia’s history has the coalition seen such a serious challenge.

It is difficult to see PR winning Putrajaya, even though the chances of it doing so are much bigger than before. No one should discount the possibility of seeing a Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim driving into Putrajaya. The possibility certainly exists, but it is only a small one.

What is more likely to happen is that PR would win more states. It is already the state government in Kedah, Kelantan, Penang and Selangor. PR actually won Perak too in 2008, but lost it to BN after the defections of several elected representatives.

This time, PR has a real chance of retaining the four states, recapturing Perak and winning Negeri Sembilan.

Even more worrying for BN are the inroads PR has made in states such as Johor, Pahang, Sabah and Sarawak. These used to be safe states for BN. Not any more.

In Johor, many are complaining that the rapid development of Iskandar Malaysia has pushed the cost of living upwards too fast. For example, they find themselves unable to compete with non-Malaysians who are buying many new properties, thus pushing prices beyond their reach.

In Pahang, environmental campaigners have put BN on the defensive over the controversial Lynas rare earth plant. PR has successfully transformed this into a partisan issue and is capitalising on it fully.

In Sabah, the Lahad Datu intrusion has opened a can of worms for BN. Sabahans have long complained that their state is flooded with outsiders, allegedly as a result of an unwritten policy to increase the number of Muslims in the state. Some are questioning if the intruders had been given citizenship by the BN administration.

The latest bombshell was in Sarawak, where relatives of Chief Minister Taib Mahmud were caught on video insulting Sarawakians. It will not be surprising if the natives choose to punish BN in this election.

An additional factor that cannot be ignored is the level of unhappiness against Umno. The movement against BN is actually spearheaded by a movement against Umno. We see today an “anything-but-Umno” (ABU) sentiment being propagated among voters, but there is no such campaign against other BN component parties such as the Malaysian Chinese Association, Malaysian Indian Congress or Gerakan.

Ironically, despite the ABU campaign, Umno itself remains quite strong because its bastion is in rural Malay areas, where the voters are less exposed to non-mainstream media.

But a significant number of urban voters and non-Malay voters have bought into the ABU sentiment. Hence the drastic weakening of support for Umno in urban areas. More importantly, several BN component parties were almost decimated in 2008 because voters wanted to punish Umno, or where Umno did not contest, they punished the contesting component party.

The protest against Umno continues today and it is likely to be a major hurdle preventing BN from doing better than in 2008.

Having said that, BN has history and experience on its side. Malaysians have not seen any other party in power. Many remain BN supporters not necessarily because they believe in the BN agenda, but because they fear what would happen if the unproven PR takes over.

Whichever way the votes go, it will be exciting to see Malaysians deciding the future of the country.