Big win for BN – if see-saw voting trend continues
BN’s best performance was in 1995, when the Malaysian economy was booming. The coalition received 65.1 per cent of the popular vote. Its worst performance in the last two decades was in the 2008 elections, barely staying above water with 50.3 per cent of the popular vote. The united opposition under Pakatan Rakyat (PR) took 46.75 per cent of the vote.
Reme Ahmad, Straits Times
IF HISTORICAL patterns should hold true, the ruling Barisan Nasional (BN) coalition should win more seats in the coming general election (GE), and a bigger slice of the popular vote.
In the six elections since 1986, Malaysians have enthusiastically voted for BN in one election, only to turn against it in large numbers at the next outing.
In the language of the stock market, after a big slide in the 2008 elections, the 13-party BN may be poised for a rebound in the 2013 General Election.
Still, as promoters of unit trusts often say, past performance is no guarantee of future results.
BN’s best performance was in 1995, when the Malaysian economy was booming. The coalition received 65.1 per cent of the popular vote.
Its worst performance in the last two decades was in the 2008 elections, barely staying above water with 50.3 per cent of the popular vote. The united opposition under Pakatan Rakyat (PR) took 46.75 per cent of the vote.
Some basics first.
There are a total of 222 seats in the federal Parliament. BN won 140 seats and the opposition PR alliance 82 in the 2008 GE. After defections, BN has 137 seats and PR 75, with 10 MPs declaring themselves as Independents.
PR consists of the conservative Parti Islam SeMalaysia, the Chinese-based Democratic Action Party and the multiracial Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR).
BN must win at least 112 seats to retain federal power.
In the past, voters shied away from Umno-led BN after major party problems, such as the bitter fight former premier Mahathir Mohamad had with Umno veteran Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah that played out in the 1990 elections.
By the next general election they were back, sickened by bickering in opposition ranks and as BN put its house in order.
Twice in the last two decades, the vote against the status quo was led by a splinter group from Umno – Semangat 46 in 1990, and in 1999, by Parti Keadilan Nasional, which later changed its name to PKR.
And three times in recent history, the opposition cobbled together alliances to take on BN.
When that happens, historical data suggests, it tends to get more votes.
This time around, the opposition is again united under a single banner.
So, will Mr Najib enjoy more voter affection than his predecessor, Tun Abdullah Badawi, in 2008?
Or will he be spurned too?
The graph is easy enough to read. But Malaysia’s voters are in an unpredictable mood. That makes the swings tougher to plot.
