Pakatan out to create a bigger tsunami
There are about 37.7 per cent Chinese votes in Perak and most of them support Pakatan Rakyat. However, Pakatan Rakyat needs to fight for the 48.59 per cent Malay votes to win the state and more parliamentary seats. And Anwar is the ace to attract Malay votes.
Lim Sue Goan, Sin Chew Daily
Opposition Leader Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim said he intends to leave Penang and contest in Perak, showing that Pakatan Rakyat has made a careful deployment for the focal states in the west coast of Peninsular Malaysia.
There was an announcement earlier saying that DAP parliamentary leader Lim Kit Siang will leave Perak to contest in Johor. The move was intended to create a momentum and set off a tsunami from the southern peninsula. And there must be important leaders in the north to make the deployment sound.
If Pakatan Rakyat is able to seize Johor, PAS vice-president Salahuddin Ayub is expected to be the candidate for state mentri besar.
Pakatan Rakyat has no preferred chief minister candidate in Malacca. In Negri Sembilan, however, PAS and the PKR have their respective preferred candidates, namely Seremban PKR deputy chief Dr Mohamad Rafie Abdul Malek and PAS central committee member Dr Rosli Yaakob.
Although there was a rumour earlier saying that PKR president Datin Seri Wan Azizah Wan Ismail would contest in Selangor, she later decided not to contest for any seats. However, PKR deputy president Azmin Ali will continue contesting in Selangor.
After Lim Kit Siang left Perak to contest in Johor, Anwar shifted to contest in the state to stabilise the situation and fight for Malay votes, with an attempt to take revenge on the BN for seizing the state administration in February 2009.
There are about 37.7 per cent Chinese votes in Perak and most of them support Pakatan Rakyat. However, Pakatan Rakyat needs to fight for the 48.59 per cent Malay votes to win the state and more parliamentary seats. And Anwar is the ace to attract Malay votes.
If Anwar contests in Perak, he can help improve the winning odds of some parliamentary seats. With more parliamentary seats, there will be a greater chance to seize Putrajaya.
It is generally predicted that since Anwar is going to contest in Perak, PKR would then be Pakatan Rakyat’s leading party in the state. If Pakatan Rakyat is able to win the state, the mentri besar should then be a PKR member. However, it is impossible for PAS grassroots to give up the post.
In the Perak regime change, the relationship between former state Mentri Besar Datuk Seri Mohammad Nizar Jamaluddin and the Malay Ruler has changed and thus, it is difficult for him to be the mentri besar again.
In Penang, half of the total voters are Chinese. It is not a big problem for Chief Minister Lim Guan Eng to keep the regime.
In Kedah, Mentri Besar Datuk Seri Azizan Abdul Razak’s performance is poor and has been receiving resistance from the state’s grassroots. Therefore, it is rumoured that PAS would field its vice-president Datuk Mahfuz Omar to contest in Kedah to pave the way for the replacement of the mentri besar.
Pakatan Rakyat also has preferred mentri besar candidates in Perlis and state PAS deputy president Mohd Anuar Tahir receives the greatest support.
In a recent interview with Sin Chew Daily, Lim Kit Siang predicted that Pakatan Rakyat would be able to seize another two state regimes in the 13th general election, namely Negri Sembilan and Perlis.
Therefore, the focal states in the west coast of peninsula, together with Kelantan, Pakatan Rakyat is trying to build a “Great Wall” and if they are linked together, it might trigger a larger tsunami.
One thing that should not be forgotten is that during the 2008 general election, Anwar and Pakatan Rakyat leaders focused their election campaign activities in the west coast of the peninsula in the last few days before polling day and it resulted in a tsunami, causing a regime change in Selangor, Perak, Penang and Kedah, while winning 10 of the 11 parliamentary seats in Kuala Lumpur.
And now, Pakatan Rakyat is using the old trick with more energetic candidates and a more sophisticated deployment.
It seems like Pakatan Rakyat’s plan to seize Putrajaya is not limited to an empty talk. The election campaign is expected to be more and more exciting.
