GE13: Flipping Anwar risks flopping
Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim draws big crowds elsewhere but not on his home turf. He now flip-flops between leaving Penang and staying put to fight it out in his Permatang Pauh constituency.
Baradan Kuppusamy, The Star
DATUK Seri Anwar Ibrahim appears unsure where to contest in the general election – first throwing out clear signals he will move out of home ground Permatang Pauh in Penang for a seat in Perak and then saying he will stay put.
His argument for moving out was originally sound; he wanted to turn Perak into a battleground with his presence there.
He wanted to contest in Tanjung Malim or Tambun but within a week switched back to announce at a ceramah on Saturday that he will fight it out in Permatang Pauh after all.
For a leader of a coalition that aims to capture Putrajaya and rule the country, to flip-flop, even as part of a winning strategy, is just not good politics.
He opens himself to attacks by his political enemies, who have accused him of either running away for fear of doing badly – or even losing – or returning to Penang because Perak is more dangerous.
It is rather late in the day for Anwar to want to contest in Perak with Parliament dissolved and the Election Commission meeting tomorrow to set dates for nomination and polling.
Probably, he wanted some sympathy from voters in Permatang Pauh with his “leaving for Perak” tactic.
Anwar’s last outing in Permatang Pauh was in a by-election in August 2008 and voters gave him overwhelming support.
In that by-election, due to his wife Datin Seri Dr Wan Azizah Wan Ismail vacating the seat, Anwar won with a 16,000 vote majority against Umno’s Datuk Arif Shah Omar Shah.
The Permatang Pauh seat had been tied to Anwar and his family ever since he first captured it, a year after joining Umno in 1981, from PAS veteran Zabidi Ali.
When he was in jail, his wife nearly lost it in the 2004 general election, winning with a slim majority of fewer than 600 votes.
The ground in Permatang Pauh, as in other areas with a large Malay electorate, has changed considerably over the years and the changes could have prompted Anwar to initially plan to move out.
A victory in Permatang Pauh, no matter how slim, will be a psychological boost for Umno, which has been locked in electoral battles with Anwar since the party sacked him in 1998.
But for Anwar, a lesser majority in Permatang Pauh will be a political disaster.
Last year, he had reportedly said this election would be his last and, if he wins, he will be prime minister. If he loses, he will retire to academia.
For Anwar, this is a watershed general election.
He is pushing 66 and has given the best part of his life to activism and politics; rising from a student rebel to political prisoner, joining Umno, leaving it and again jailed to become the country’s most famous prisoner for nine years.
From behind bars he set up the multi-racial Parti Keadilan Nasional, which later merged with Parti Rakyat Malaysia and assumed its current name Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR).
The merged entity allied with the DAP and PAS and, together, became known as Pakatan Rakyat – a loose coalition that now dreams of capturing Putrajaya.
By most accounts, the coalition is unlikely to muster the numbers needed to unseat the Barisan Nasional. One reason is that the Malay ground has clearly shifted in favour of Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak.
That shift has affected constituencies like Permatang Pauh and this is one reason Anwar was forced to consider moving out to a safer seat with a better voter mix.
Given a good “winnable candidate” in Permatang Pauh against Anwar – and Umno thinks it has one such candidate – the chances of reducing Anwar’s winning majority is considerable.
Speculation is rife that the candidate is Dr Mazlan Ismail, a local boy and a former PAS Youth leader who gives Friday sermons and holds a high position in a government-linked company.
Besides, Anwar is no longer a crowd puller in Permatang Pauh.
He may draw big gatherings elsewhere but on his home turf he has become somewhat jaded and the crowds have been dwindling.
Although Anwar still has the upper hand, the victory margin will be closely watched by his supporters.
His supporters are sure he can retain the seat with a “good and comfortable” majority but unsure whether he will sit in Putrajaya.
