The mother of all battles
Although it’s a high stakes game for both, in the final analysis, Ghani probably has more to lose.
Oon Yeoh, The Sun Daily
IN the months leading up to the polls, the general sense that everyone had was that the Lembah Pantai battle between PKR’s Nurul Izzah and Umno’s Raja Nong Chik Raja Zainal Abidin would be the one to watch. Nothing would be more exciting.
Even when DAP’s Lim Kit Siang announced he would be contesting in Johor, of all places, that in itself would not have eclipsed the Lembah Pantai contest. However, when Umno decided to field former Johor mentri besar Datuk Abdul Ghani Othman to defend Gelang Patah, it became THE contest to watch.
This is, to borrow a phrase from Saddam Hussein, “the mother of all battles” in GE13. No other contest involving any other national level leader would be this exciting. Not even close.
Most of us probably had not heard of Gelang Patah before this. Like many constituencies in Johor, it’s a Barisan Nasional (BN) stronghold. Despite the fact that it has a slight Chinese majority demographic, it managed to withstand the political tsunami that swept through most of Peninsular Malaysia in 2008.
Gelang Patah was firmly in MCA’s grip through four election cycles. In 2004, its candidate Tan Ah Eng had a whopping majority of more than 30,000 votes. Although her majority was decreased to slightly under 9,000 votes in 2008, it was still a comfortable margin.
So, why is Kit Siang doing this? There are multiple reasons. One very basic one is to win a new parliamentary seat for DAP. This is something he has done throughout his career, moving from one constituency to another and establishing new strongholds for his party.
He stumbled once, in 1999, when he tried to win a new seat for DAP in Penang and lost. But he came back and managed to take a new seat for DAP in Perak in 2004. Overall his track record is pretty impressive.
But going to Johor is not just about winning an additional seat for his party. There is some psychological warfare at play here. It’s about striking into the heart of BN country, much like how PAS’s Datuk Husam Musa is contesting in Putrajaya.
It does wonders to boost the morale of his party and the Opposition coalition.
When Kit Siang chose Gelang Patah, he probably thought he would end up going against Jason Teoh, a relative lightweight next to him. Even if MCA president Datuk Seri Dr Chua Soi Lek had taken up his challenge to contest there, Kit Siang probably figured he could win rather easily.
BN responded with a shock-and-awe strategy by fielding Ghani, without question the biggest name in Johor politics. And he’s not some divisive figure like Ibrahim Ali or Zulkifli Noordin, but rather a leader with a genuinely moderate image who is seen to have done a good job as mentri besar.
This surely would have taken Kit Siang by surprise but it’s not something that will rattle him. He’s battled big names before. In 1986, he took on then rising star Tan Sri Dr Koh Tsu Koon, and won. Then in 1990, he took on the legendary Tun Dr Lim Chong Eu and won. Will he be able to score a hat-trick?
To analyse the odds, one has to look at the demographics. About 53% of the electorate is Chinese, 34% Malays and 13% Indian.
A lot of different voting configurations have been bandied about but there seems to be general sense that Kit Siang has to win at least 70% of the Chinese votes, 50% of the Indian votes and 20% of the Malay votes to defeat Ghani.
Will he be able to garner at least 70% of the Chinese votes? Most political observers seem to think so. Whether he can get at least 50% and 20% of the Indian and Malay votes, respectively is another thing. That’s the big unknown.
Next, let’s look at the prospects for these men. Both Ghani and BN have to win in order for Ghani to still have any political career to speak of. If Ghani wins but BN loses, he doesn’t have much to look forward to as an opposition MP.
If Ghani loses but BN wins, his career is over as he probably won’t be made a minister via senatorship in a BN cabinet.
In contrast, if Kit Siang wins but Pakatan Rakyat (PR) loses, he would be regarded as a hero who’s set the stage for a further onslaught into BN territory in the next election, much like what he did in Perak (he won in 2004 and by 2008, PR was able to win that state).
If Kit Siang loses but PR wins, it’s almost certain he would be made a senator in a PR cabinet.
So, although it’s a high stakes game for both, in the final analysis, Ghani probably has more to lose. One thing’s for sure though, the whole nation will be watching the outcome of this most exciting contest in Gelang Patah.
Oon Yeoh is a columnist for theSun and editor of the book Tipping Points – Viewpoints on the reasons for, and impact of, the March 8 election earthquake.
