In the aftermath of May 5th (part 2) (UPDATED with Chinese Translation)
Umno has still not recovered from this shock and even Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad is pissed big time. He is blaming Najib for wasting his time and the government’s resources in trying to woo back the Chinese when that time and money could have been better spent in the rural areas where the Malays are the majority.
THE CORRIDORS OF POWER
Raja Petra Kamarudin
In part 1 of this series I said, “Luckily Najib Tun Razak is the Prime Minister. If I were the Prime Minister I would send my people in there with a bomb to create havoc and make sure that some people die. Then there would have been a lot of anger against Pakatan Rakyat for its poor security. Furthermore, I can then declare an emergency and suspend Parliament and the State Assemblies. And once I rule by martial law I can make changes that only a two-thirds majority in Parliament can.”
Okay, what would I do if I were Anwar Ibrahim, the Opposition Leader, instead?
Well, then for sure I would arrange for my agent provocateurs to plant a small explosive device at the far end of the stadium, farthest from the stage where I would be sitting. This explosive device is meant to take just a few lives and create a reasonable amount of injury, plus trigger a panic followed by a stampede (which will take more lives than the explosive device itself).
No doubt some lives would be lost but then this is what politics is all about — collateral damage. After all, if the ballot does not work — as Sunday, 5th May 2013 has proven — then you need to choose the bullet over the ballot. So in that sense Anwar is a more decent person than I am. If I wanted federal power as desperately as Anwar does then I would allow the ends to justify the means.
I mean when the Germans advanced on Leningrad during World War II, Stalin ordered a scorched-earth policy to defeat the Germans, as they did about 130 years earlier to defeat the French. He allowed hunger and the cold to weaken the Germans and with a scorched-earth policy the Germans would be denied food and shelter.
The downside to this, of course, would be that Russian civilians would also die and about 12 million of the 20 million deaths were non-combatants. However, in the bigger scheme of things, civilian loses are unavoidable. This is what the fight for power is all about, sacrificing pawns in the game of thrones.
If something untoward did happen in the Kelana Jaya Stadium last night everyone would blame Umno and Prime Minister Najib Tun Razak. No one would dream that it was an ‘inside job’. Even more sympathy for Pakatan Rakyat would be gained plus the people would rise in anger and bring down the government. Was not Suharto and Marcos brought down only once people died? And Marcos and Suharto were far more powerful and stronger than Najib is.
I suppose that is why it is dangerous to allow me to become a politician. I am too devious and merciless and would not allow anything to stand in my way of reaching the top. Luckily Anwar is not as cold-blooded as I am. That is one thing Malaysia has to be thankful for.
On another note, the Team Khalid versus Team Azmin tussle for power is causing a stalemate in Selangor. PAS and DAP want Khalid as they can work with him better than they can with Azmin. The PKR Supreme Council, however, is in support of Azmin. To complicate matters further, Anwar supports Azmin while Anwar’s wife and daughter support Khalid.
Umno is watching this crisis with great interest and anxiety. Umno too wants Khalid because they feel that Khalid is the weaker of the two while Azmin is just too sharp for his own good. With Khalid at the helm, Umno has a better chance of capturing Selangor in the next election than with Azmin in charge.
Azmin may not have the administrative skills that Khalid has but Azmin is a far better politician and he will know how to retain Selangor in the next general election four or five years from now. (Azmin is as ruthless as I am and he too would be comfortable with collateral damage. So in that sense I admire his guts as a politician although I dislike him as a person).
Azmin has Anwar over a barrel. If Anwar chooses Khalid then he would be going against his own party’s Supreme Council and there would be the added danger of Azmin leaving with at least 11 or even 15 of his supporters. And that is the second reason why Umno wants Khalid rather than Azmin as the Menteri Besar.
Note that most of the candidates in the recent general election are Azmin’s people and handpicked by him. Hence they are loyal to him and would follow him if he were to leave the party and become an ‘independent’.
Umno knows that its survival depends on the Malays and Indians (plus the natives of East Malaysia). In the recent general election, more than 90% of the Chinese voted for Pakatan Rakyat, mainly DAP. In some saluran, 100% of the Chinese voted opposition. Not a single Chinese vote went to Barisan Nasional.
This has shocked Umno. They knew that the Chinese would not vote Barisan Nasional but they did not expect it to be this bad. They thought they could get at least 10-15% of the Chinese vote. They did not think that the Chinese vote for Pakatan Rakyat would be in the high 90s and in some places 100%.
Umno has still not recovered from this shock and even Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad is pissed big time. He is blaming Najib for wasting his time and the government’s resources in trying to woo back the Chinese when that time and money could have been better spent in the rural areas where the Malays are the majority.
There are about 50 or so of the 222 parliamentary seats that are Chinese majority. Another 57 of the seats are in West Malaysia, some of them Chinese majority seats as well (so there is some overlap here).
Hence Umno has to make sure that a minimum of 95 of the 120 Malay majority seats plus at least 45 of the East Malaysian seats are retained. Then Umno can afford to write-off the Chinese totally.
Ideally they should increase the parliamentary seats by another 10 or 15, mainly in the rural areas plus in East Malaysia. This would ensure that Barisan Nasional would be able to retain power in 2018 even if Pakatan Rakyat increases it share of the popular vote to 55%. Then Barisan Nasional can still be in power even with just 45% of the popular vote.
But to do this they need a two-thirds majority in Parliament and they are hoping that Azmin and his gang will cross over to give them the two-thirds that they need to increase the number of seats in favour of Barisan Nasional. And for both those reasons Umno is hoping that Khalid gets the job of Selangor Menteri Besar.
I just love Malaysian politics.
TO BE CONTINUED
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巫統至今還未從此震驚中囘過神來，就連敦馬也爲此而深感忿怒。他正怪罪納吉，指他浪費時間和國家資源來討好華人。那些時間和資源大可以用在馬來人聚集的郊外地區上。
原文：Raja Petra Kamarudin
譯文：方宙
在上一篇我寫到：“幸虧納吉是我國首相，如果我是首相的話，我會派人拿個炸彈在裏面引爆來製造死人的浩劫，然後就會有很多人把矛頭指向民聯，說他們沒有做好保安。再者，我可以宣佈我國正式進入緊急狀態，屆時我就可以瓦解國會和州會以戒嚴法令治國，令我可以如奪得2/3國會議席般隨心所欲地修改國家法令。”
好了，那如果我是反對黨領袖安華的話，那我又會怎樣做呢？
我會安排我的‘臥底’在體育館内離我講臺最遠的邊緣放個小炸彈。那個小炸彈的目的不是要奪得很多人命而是要令多人受傷和引發恐慌來製造人踩人的悲劇（這將會比那個炸彈致死更多人）。
無疑的將會有很多人因此死亡，但這正是政治的‘精髓’—-附帶犧牲。底限是，如果投票解決不了問題的話—-5月5號的大選已證明了這一點—-那就用子彈來解決吧。所以說安華他比我有道德，如果我像他一樣那麽亡命地渴望權力的話，我會讓結果合理化我的行動。
我的意思是，當年二戰期間德軍進軍列寧格勒時，斯大林用了‘燒掉一切’的對策來擊敗德軍，正如130年前他們用來擊敗法國般。他用飢餓和寒冷慢慢地削弱德軍的戰鬥力，因爲‘燒掉一切’策略主要就是不給德軍留任何食物和避寒地。
這個策略犧牲的當然就是俄國的人民。這場戰役2000万死亡人數中就有1200万是普通人，但爲了保全大益，人民的犧牲是無可避免的。這就是權力鬥爭的中心—-在王位鬥爭遊戲中犧牲掉那些小卒。
如果昨晚真的發生了不幸的事故的話那所有人一定會把罪怪在巫統和納吉身上，因爲沒有人會懷疑這是‘自己人’干的。民聯將會迎來更多的同情而人民也會憤怒地把政府給推翻。蘇哈多和馬可思不就是在有人死掉後才被推翻的嗎？當年的蘇哈多和馬可思可比現在的納吉還要強大得多了。
我想如果我從政的話那是件很危險的事情。我太奸詐無情了，我不會讓任何事情阻擋我掌權。幸虧安華並沒我這般冷血，這是馬來西亞應該感到慶幸的。
另一件事情，卡立對壘阿玆敏之戰已讓整個雪蘭莪都僵持在那了。伊黨和行動黨都挺卡立上位，因爲他們跟卡立比較合得來，但公正黨最高理事會的心水人選是阿玆敏。而更絕的是，安華本身是支持阿玆敏的，但他的妻子和女兒都支持卡立。
在另一邊觀望的巫統則是又好奇又擔憂。巫統想要卡立上位，因爲對比起阿玆敏他較爲軟弱而阿玆敏則是太尖銳聰明了。如果卡立掌權的話，那巫統要重奪雪州就相對地容易得多。
阿玆敏的管理能力可能沒比卡立好，但他是個很強的政客，他知道如何在未來4，5年保住雪州政權（阿玆敏同我一樣殘酷，他對附帶犧牲不會覺得反感。所以我很敬佩他的政客膽量，但我對他的爲人則深感厭惡）。
阿玆敏把安華弄得很糾結；如果安華任卡立為大臣的話那就會違反了最高理事會的意願，與此同時阿玆敏可能會帶領他10個，甚至是15個支持者離黨。這就是巫統要卡立上位的第二個原因。
請記住，此屆大選很多候選人都是阿玆敏親點上陣的，所以他們對他都很忠心且會為他脫離公正黨成爲‘獨立人士’。
巫統很明瞭他們必須靠馬來人和印度人（再加上東馬土著）來生存。在此屆大選，多過90%的華人都投給反對黨，尤其是行動黨。在一些地區甚至有100%的華人都投給反對黨，沒有一票是投給囯陣的。
這對巫統來講是很震撼的。他們知道華人不會投給囯陣，但他們沒有想到情況會是這樣糟糕。他們以爲他們至少會得到10-15%的華人票，他們根本就沒想到90%，甚至100%的華人會投給民聯。
巫統至今還未從此震驚中囘過神來，就連敦馬也爲此而深感忿怒。他正怪罪納吉，指他浪費時間和國家資源來討好華人。那些時間和資源大可以用在馬來人聚集的郊外地區上。
在222個囯席當中大約有50個是華人居多的議席。在東馬的57個囯席當中，也有一小部分是華人議席（這裡有一些重疊）。
所以說巫統必須確保他們保得住（總數120個的）95個馬來席和至少45個東馬囯席。只有這樣巫統才能完全地忘掉華人的威脅。
在理想的情況下，巫統他們是想在鄉村地區和東馬囊括多10-15個席位。這將會確保他們在2018年也會繼續執政，即使是民聯在那個時候擁有55%的票選。囯陣屆時凴45%的票選也能執政了。
但他們現在需要2/3多數議席才能達成他們的目的，所以他們希望阿玆敏能夠帶領他的追隨者跳槽到他們那邊，這樣他們就能有2/3多數議席了。以上這些原因足以解釋爲何巫統希望雪州大臣是卡立而不是阿玆敏了。
我真的很愛大馬的政治。
（敬請期待下一篇文章）
