In the aftermath of May 5th (part 3) (UPDATED with Chinese Translation)
What Najib did not suspect was that some other Barisan Nasional leaders from Sabah and Sarawak wanted to follow Lajim Ukin and Wilfred Bumburing when they crossed over. However, Anwar told them to stay put in Barisan Nasional and contest the general election under the ruling party banner and then cross over after the general election.
THE CORRIDORS OF POWER
Raja Petra Kamarudin
You may love Anwar Ibrahim or you may hate him. But one thing you must not do is to underestimate him. That would be a big mistake if you were a ‘struggling’ Prime Minister like Najib Tun Razak.
Anwar knew that if Najib could not do better than Tun Abdullah Ahmad Badawi in the March 2008 general election then Najib would be in deep shit. Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad would cut off his balls and nail it to the wall. (And Dr Mahathir is sharpening his knife even as you read this).
So that was Anwar’s first aim. Even if you cannot take over the government just make sure that Najib does not get more than 140 parliamentary seats. And Najib did not do better than what Pak Lah did in March 2008. In fact, he did worse — he won seven parliamentary seats less than in 2008.
So now Najib is facing so much internal problems with Dr Mahathir breathing down his neck he no longer has any time or energy to worry about Anwar or about what Anwar is up to.
And that works fine for Anwar as far as he is concerned. He can now distract Najib even further with his road shows that started last night in Kelana Jaya — which means Najib now has two major battles to fight.
Do you think Anwar can walk in to Putrajaya by organising rallies and road shows? Do you think the Election Commission will call for fresh elections just because Anwar says they must?
If you believe that then you are sillier than I first thought. The Election Commission has just told Anwar to go screw himself. But that is not a problem because that is not Anwar’s real game plan. His real game plan is to ‘steal’ the government through crossovers — just like Barisan Nasional ‘stole’ it through election fraud.
What Najib did not suspect was that some other Barisan Nasional leaders from Sabah and Sarawak wanted to follow Lajim Ukin and Wilfred Bumburing when they crossed over. However, Anwar told them to stay put in Barisan Nasional and contest the general election under the ruling party banner and then cross over after the general election.
Many may have been puzzled as to why Pakatan Rakyat created such a mess in Sabah and Sarawak. Even a political novice knows that you need Sabah and Sarawak to march in to Putrajaya since these two East Malaysian states control 25% of the seats in parliament.
Sabah and Sarawak will always control 25% of the seats even if they have only 10% of the nation’s population. That is what was decided in the Malaysian Agreement. (Hence the one-man-one-vote system cannot work in Malaysia because then Sabah and Sarawak can never have 25% of the seats in parliament).
Anyway, Anwar is not as stupid as you may think. It may appear like he messed up in Sabah and Sarawak. Actually he was not interested to win Sabah and Sarawak through the ballot box because he knew that would be very difficult to do and you would be wasting a lot of time and money while achieving very little.
Hence he just made a token effort in Sabah and Sarawak and did not worry too much about how many seats he would win. After all, he was not going to win that many anyway, other than the ones that DAP won in the predominantly Chinese constituencies.
Of course he wanted Sabah and Sarawak. But he wanted them not through the elections. He wanted them after the elections once he knows how many seats he can win in West Malaysia and how more seats he needs to be able to form the federal government.
So now, while the entire nation is focusing on the rallies that are going to be organised all over the country, Anwar is secretly negotiating with the Barisan Nasional Members of Parliament from Sabah and Sarawak.
Pakatan Rakyat needs at least 23 more parliamentary seats to form the federal government. 25 would be better. Then Pakatan Rakyat would have six more seats than Barisan Nasional.
Anwar’s ‘war room’ masterminds are Dr Rahim Ghouse, Saifuddin Nasution, Johari Abdul and Azmin Ali. These are the people hatching all the plots and planning the strategies. They were also the masterminds behind the Free Anwar Campaign, which I headed from 2000 to 2004. So I have personally worked with them since more than ten years ago and I know how they do things and what makes them tick.
So all of you who wish to scream and shout in the stadium rallies please continue to do so. I know it is great fun because we too used to do all this back in the old days. But do not expect anything great from that other than just having a good time.
Those rallies are not going to allow Anwar to walk in to Putrajaya because no new elections are going to be called. Even the Election Petitions are not going to achieve much unless you have strong evidence of fraud — and you do not.
All the ‘evidence’ of election fraud is mere hearsay and rumours. There were no extra ballot boxes. Hell, there were no blackouts as well. So how do you win your court cases based purely on gut feel?
Sabah and Sarawak know they are now the Kingmakers. If they stay with Barisan Nasional then Anwar is screwed. If they jump then Najib is screwed. But before they make the decision whether to stay or to jump, they want to know what’s in it for them.
Can they get extra federal cabinet posts? One Deputy Prime Minister’s post maybe? Can they see an increase in oil royalty from 5% to 20%? Can they get more autonomy like what the 18- and 20-Point Agreements promised them?
So the horse-trading is now going on. Anwar is making his offers and Najib will have to counter-offer something better. So we may yet see Anwar become the new Prime Minister if Najib cannot better Anwar’s offer and the Members of Parliament from Sabah and Sarawak cross over.
In the meantime, while all this is going on, Najib has Dr Mahathir to worry about while Anwar has to try to pacify Azmin to make sure he does not jump if he is not made the Menteri Besar of Selangor. If not then Anwar might as well abandon the negotiations because the crossovers from Sabah and Sarawak will be neutralised by Azmin and gang once they declare themselves ‘independents’.
Sigh….and you want me to enter politics? You must be crazy! Why would I want to suffer all this aggravation and anxiety?
TO BE CONTINUED
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5月5之後（三）
納吉所預想不到的是有些沙巴和砂磱越的囯陣領袖其實是想追隨Lajim Ukin和Wilfred Bumburing跳槽的。無論如何，安華要他們繼續待在囯陣以他們的黨旗來參加大選，然後在贏得大選以後才跳進民聯。
原文：Raja Petra Kamarudin
譯文：方宙
你可以愛安華，你可以恨安華，但你千萬千萬不可以低估他。那是個很致命的錯誤，尤其你還是個‘一身蟻’的首相，如納吉般。
安華知道如果納吉的大選成績不比前首相阿都拉的2008大選成績來得漂亮的話，那他真的代誌大條了；敦馬會把他的LP切下來釘在墻上（儅你讀到這時，老馬正磨利著他的切刀）。
這就是安華的首要目標；如果你贏不了的話那就讓納吉也得不到多過140個囯席吧。納吉最終真的並沒有做得比阿都拉好，事實上他把事情給搞砸了—-比起2008年，他多輸了7席。現在納吉正面對排山倒海的内部問題和老馬不停地在他頸后吹氣，他根本就沒有時間精力去擔心安華和安華的舉動。
對安華來講，這是最好的。他現在可以運用昨晚的格拉納再也集會來更進一步地轉移納吉的視線。現在納吉有兩場戰要打。
你以爲單靠舉行集會安華就能踏入布城嗎？你以爲選舉委員會真的會因爲安華而召開新的選舉嗎？
如果你真的這樣相信的話那你比我想象中的還要笨；選舉委員會剛剛才發言叫安華去自己吃自己。但這並不是一個問題因爲它並不是安華真正的遊戲計劃。安華真正的計劃是通過跳槽方式來‘偷得’政權—-正如囯陣通過選舉舞弊來‘偷得’政權般。
納吉所預想不到的是有些沙巴和砂磱越的囯陣領袖其實是想追隨Lajim Ukin和Wilfred Bumburing跳槽的。無論如何，安華要他們繼續待在囯陣以他們的黨旗來參加大選，然後在贏得大選以後才跳進民聯來。
很多會很覺得很奇怪，爲什麽民聯會在沙砂這兩州搞砸了。即便是一個新手也知道要想步入布城他必須依靠這兩個州屬，因爲它們的囯席數佔了全國的25%。它們永遠都會佔據25%的囯席數，即便他們人口總數只佔大馬人口總數的10%，因爲這是《馬來西亞協議》賜予它們的權力（所以說1人1票的投票系統在馬來西亞是行不通的，因爲如果這樣做的話那沙砂就會得不到25%的囯席）。
安華並沒有你想象中那樣笨；他可能真的是搞砸了，但他並不是要通過投票贏得沙砂兩州因爲他知道這會花掉很多金錢時間，而換來的可能只是一點效果。所以說他採取的是漁翁得利的策略，他並不擔心現在他到底能贏多少席。他打從一開始就很清楚他能贏的並不多，最多只是在行動黨所向無敵的華人選區而已。
當然他很垂涎沙砂兩州，但他是不會通過投票贏得它們的。一旦大選后，他就知道他在西馬贏得了多少囯席，然後他就能算出他需要多少東馬囯席來組織政府了。
現在，正當全國都把注意力放在即將在全國各地舉辦的集會時，安華已暗地裏和東馬的國會議員們展開談判了。民聯需要多23席才能執政，若能得到25席的話那就更好，因爲那將使他們多出囯陣6個席位。
安華的‘作戰指揮室’的智囊是Rahim Ghouse, Saifuddin Nasution, Johari Abdul和Azmin Ali，就是他們這群人在背後部署和策劃所有策略的。他們之前也是‘釋放安華運動’的大腦，而我正是此運動2000-2004年閒的負責人。我曾和他們工作過，所以我知道他們的做事方法和他們喜歡用的招數。
你們當中如果有人想要繼續在集會内大喊大叫的話那請便吧。我知道這是恨刺激的，因爲在過去我們也是這樣做的。但請別奢望這樣做會帶來些什麽，你能得到的最多只是一個很激昂的晚上而已。
這些集會並不會把安華送進布成，因爲根本就不會有新的選舉。就連選舉上訴也不會為他帶來些什麽，因爲他根本就沒有很給力的證據。
那些所謂的選舉舞弊的‘證據’全都是些謠言與道聼途説的傳言而以。根本就沒有多出來的選票箱，連停電都是他媽騙人的。你指望法院能因你的‘直覺’來判你贏嗎？
沙砂兩州現在很明瞭他們才是造王者；如果他們留在囯陣那安華就悲劇了，但如果他們跳出來那就輪到納吉悲劇了。在他們在做出決定之前，他們想要看看他們會得到的是什麽。
他們能得到額外的内閣職位嗎？副首相聼起來很不錯嘛？石油稅能否從現在的5%增加到20%？他們能否得到更多的自主權，正如之前簽署《18點協議》和《20點協議》時所答應他們的呢？
現在談判交易正式開始，安華會開出他的條件而納吉必須開出更好的。所以說安華還有機會成爲首相，如果納吉拿不出一個更好的條件而造就東馬國會議員跳槽去民聯的話。
正當情況如此危急的與此同時，納吉有他的老馬要擔心而安華有他的阿玆敏要擔心，因爲如果阿玆敏儅不成雪州大臣的話安華得確保他不會跳槽。如果安華喬不好的話，那他乾脆放棄掉東馬好了，因爲東馬人跳了進來而阿玆敏又跳了出去，於事無補啊。
嗐，你要我從政？你燒壞腦袋了吧你！我爲什麽要如此折磨我自己呢？
（敬請期待下一篇文章）
