Negeri Sembilan: UMNO’s Final Fortress

 

 

UMNO had all of its Fortresses breached. This time it was shocked and shattered in many states but the effect could be best seen in Pahang & Johor as previously, Pakatan had never been able to do much damage. 

Last week’s GE showed how vulnerable the so-called UMNO Fortresses are, especially the so-called Johor Way that Gave Way to Pakatan’s onslaught headed by Lim Kit Siang and his excellent strategy of moving some leaders to Johor. The best example is the fall of Puad in Batu Pahat which is a ripple effect of Gelang Patah, Kulai, Kluang. There were near misses in such places as Segamat, Labis, Pulai, Muar and some other seats. Interesting to see the state seats have climbed up 2 digits and the trend is similar in Pahang. With Raub being won by DAP’s Sakmongkol AK47 as an Ex Malay UMNO ADUN for Pulau Manis in 2004 Elections is a History by itself, Mentakab another shining example of how another Malay DAP candidate is amazing. The Fortresses have been breached.

But the subject I am bringing on here is the last remaining Fortress for UMNO.

 

NEGERI SEMBILAN. Similar to Penang, Negeri Sembilan had a Clean sweep of every state seat by DAP Candidates. All 12 seats were won by DAP and just had to be joined by 6 more candidates of either PKR or PAS to combine and form the new government but alas that was not to happen as PKR only managed 3 seats while PAS was totally wiped out. 

The seats won by PKR and DAP can be seen as a clear segregation of Negeri Sembilan. Allow me to call it East & West as you look at Parliament seats. Into the East is totally in Pakatan’s Favour while into the West is truly with BN (UMNO). Is this an Urban/Rural divide? That’s how is seems looking at state seats in the Towns as Nilai, Mantin, Port Dickson, Bahau, and all areas around Seremban.

Its an indication other than in Sikamat where the only UMNO candidate lost, no others were really touched though there were some slim majorities. This also has caused the Paroi state seat go to UMNO from previously belonging to PAS.

Many factors are said to be the cause of the great divide between East-West/Urban Rural voters in Negeri Sembilan.

Here are some layman views on some 

1. The Malay Psyche 

Kedah, Kelantan & Terengganu which are called the Malay heartland has been always interested with the politics of PAS, but that does not seem to be the case in Negeri Sembilan. Malays in Negeri Sembilan are more of UMNO, preferring moderate ones who have not been touched by past elections. This is a concern as the PAS version of Islam has said to spook the Malays in Negeri Sembilan. Malays here are more afraid to vote for PAS compared to the other races. 

2. Poor Leadership

While commanding a broken PKR which seems strife with internal problems, on the surface Kamarul Baharin as MP for Teluk Kemang looked sharp and tried to wrest the state and becoming the Menteri Besar by standing at Ampangan seat but lost it. Previously this was a PKR seat. He seemed greedy and rushed for a last minute Job. 

3. Ignoring existing Potential candidates

Aspan Alias was ignored by DAP to pull in its own version of Mentakab results by putting him as a candidate for DUN. Instead they decided not to rope in a Malay probably with the thought of having PKR & PAS Malay Candidates. The State needed a credible Malay Leader and and an Ex UMNO Man like Aspan could have brought in the unnecessary pull. 

4. Chegubard’s Role. 

The previous Hot Shot who went head on with Khairy, Chegubard was sent to Sg. Acheh in Penang to lose in a 3 corner fight. He was the role model for youths who see him as a warrior and PKR sent him away to be replaced by an ageing gentleman? Its time to bring him back to Negeri Sembilan if you want to win 2018. Look at the Majority of Khairy – it more than tripled!

5. Halilintar ke Putrajaya

Losing momentum too early in the fight for Putrajaya. 3 years prior to the election the machinery of Negeri Sembilan was mobilised to Project Halilintar Ke Putrajaya which exposed the scams of current Menteri Besar and corrupt practices. This energy fizzled out before 2012 came..

6. Heavyweights

Even though Rais Yatim was taken out from the race, another Heavyweight joined in for Parliament. The Former Menteri Besar Mohd Isa Abd Samad who was convicted of Money Politics at the UMNO General Assembly. He is the “winning candidate” of Negeri Sembilan and heads the FELDA Chairman and there are many Felda all over Negeri Sembilan.

7.Urban/Rural divide

Though there has been some reduced majorities mostly the Urban/Rural divide is very clearly seen in Negeri Sembilan. This could be due to poor sources of information of current situations as well as lack of information. Lopsided views are also a major concern as the people watch TV3 exclusively and read only Utusan and UMNO controlled papers.

8. Bumiputra Privileges

UMNO has ingrained in the minds of Malays its their right to have special privileges. How will the folks be able to let go of these special privileges in return for Pakatan’s policies which are yet to be seen? There are even some who are worried a Chinese might end up as MB if Pakatan is voted in. Such issues have to be dealt and clearly explained. This seige mentality is used to the hilt by UMNO even today.

9. Huge Ceramah

While DAP had huge crowds into tens of thousands during its Ceramah and Anwar’s Ceramah had more than 40 thousand people, these messages had not reached the rural folks. Neither were there mega ceramahs being done in the heart of Negeri Sembilan where it mattered most! So leave the towns and touch the hearts of the Rural People in smaller towns and Kampungs all over the State.