In the aftermath of May 5th (part 7) (UPDATED with Chinese Translation)

The problem is not so much what to do with Najib. If Najib were to be ousted, just like Pak Lah was soon after the 2008 general election, then Deputy Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin would automatically take over as Prime Minister. The problem is: who would then become the new Deputy Prime Minister? By convention, once the Prime Minister retires/resigns/dies and the Deputy Prime Minister takes over, then one of the three Vice Presidents of Umno becomes the new Deputy Prime Minister. And who would this person be?

THE CORRIDORS OF POWER

Raja Petra Kamarudin

Husam akan lawan jika kerajaan baru Kelantan ‘kaut balak’

(The Malaysian Insider) – Timbalan Pesuruhjaya II PAS Kelantan Datuk Husam Musa tidak terkilan kerana tidak dilantik sebagai Exco Kerajaan Negeri tetapi menegaskan akan memperbetulkan jika kerajaan negeri pimpinan Menteri Besar Datuk Ahmad Yakcob lari dari landasan Islam dan melakukan aktiviti ‘duniawi’ seperti ‘mengaut balak’.

Husam baru-baru ini tidak dilantik semula sebagai Exco kerajaan negeri selepas bekas menteri besar, Datuk Nik Abdul Aziz Nik Mat menyerahkan kepimpinan negeri kepada Ahmad yang sebelum ini merupakan timbalan menteri besar.

“Tetapi kalau kerajaan ini bersifat duniawi yang nak mengaut balak, lombong, Nauzubillah… Ampunkan saya kalau saya berdiri di dalam dewan untuk memperbetulkan kerajaan,” kata Naib Presiden PAS itu dipetik dari Sinar Harian Online.

“Saya masuk dalam perjuangan ini bukan main-main. Saya masuk ini untuk melihatkan apa yang kita usrahkan Islam yang syumul, Islam yang komprehensif, yang menjaga khazanah negeri dan negara supaya miskin dan yatim piatu, mereka itu dibela dan Islam menjadi model. Ini cita-cita saya,” tambah beliau lagi.

Husam (gambar) yang naik dalam politik bermula dengan menjadi “orang belakang” Nik Aziz ditamatkan kariernya dalam kerajaan negeri Kelantan sebaik sahaja bekas menteri besar bersara dari memimpin negeri.

Nik Aziz yang juga Mursyidul Am PAS itu sekali lagi berjaya memimpin parti Islam tersebut untuk menang dalam Pilihan Raya 2013 menyaksikan Pakatan Rakyat (PR) berjaya mendapat 32 daripada 45 kerusi Dewan Undangan Negeri (DUN), sekaligus mempertahankan negeri yang diperintah semenjak 1990.

Pada PRU13 PAS menguasai 32 kerusi DUN berbanding Barisan Nasional (BN) yang menang di 12 kerusi manakala PKR satu kerusi.

Ahmad, yang juga Timbalan Pesuruhjaya PAS I Kelantan, menang kerusi DUN Pasir Pekan dengan mengalahkan calon BN Nik Noriza Nik Salleh dengan majoriti 5,644 undi.

Husam tewas di kerusi Parlimen Putrajaya di tangan Datuk Seri Tengku Adnan Tengku Mansor akan tetapi berjaya mengekalkan kerusi DUN Salor.

Selain Husam, pemimpin-pemimpin kanan PAS yang turut kalah dalam PRU13 adalah Timbalan Presiden Mohamad Sabu, Naib Presiden Salahuddin Ayub dan Ahli Jawatankuasa Pusat Dr Dzulkefly Ahmad. 

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I first met the ex-Menteri Besar of Kelantan, Tok Guru Nik Aziz Nik Mat, face-to-face 15 years ago in 1998. The meeting, which was arranged by Mustafa Ali, was actually for an interview. Harakah, the party organ of the Islamic party, PAS, then translated this interview into Bahasa Malaysia.

One important point I made, and which I discussed with Tok Guru, was that PAS Kelantan is Nik Aziz and Nik Aziz is PAS Kelantan. Hence, without Tok Guru, the PAS Kelantan government would most likely cease to exist. PAS Kelantan is more or less synonymous with Tok Guru.

I actually met a few kaki gedebeh (sort of street thugs) at the Kota Bharu taxi station and many of them expressed support for Tok Guru. Yes, I do have many friends amongst the kaki gedebeh who would escort me to Golok when I cross the border to visit the Buddhist temples in Thailand (why else would I go to Golok?).

These kaki gedebeh are not good Muslims. They do not pray or fast. They go to Golok for R&R (for wine, women and other merriment). You can hire them to ‘fix up’ your enemy either with a bullet in the chest or a kapak kecik (small axe) on the forehead. They smuggle rice across the border and involve in gunrunning. And so on. Yet they support Tok Guru, not because of Islam or PAS, but because they have tremendous respect for him. 

Hence, if even ‘bad’ people support Tok Guru, how can PAS go wrong? But what would happen if Tok Guru were no longer the Menteri Besar? Would PAS still get their support? I doubt so!

Tok Guru agreed and explained that this was why he was grooming lapisan kedua (second layer) to prepare them to take over from him. And he had about two or three candidates in mind who he was grooming as his successor, one of them, of course, Husam Musa.

Tok Guru further said that on a few occasions he absented himself from functions he had been invited to so that these lapisan kedua could attend in his place. This, explained Tok Guru, was not only to ‘train’ them, but also to give them exposure so that that rakyat can familiarise themselves with these second-in-commands.

Now, Tok Guru has retired. And all the lapisan kedua whom he groomed these last 23 years have been ‘retired off’ as well, Husam Musa one of them. And the reason they have been ‘retired off’ is because His Highness the Sultan of Kelantan wants them out.

According to the ‘palace talk’, His Highness wanted a timber concession and Husam turned His Highness down and told the Sultan to follow the ‘normal procedure’ by submitting a tender. Hence the reason for the heading of that news item above: Husam akan lawan jika kerajaan baru Kelantan ‘kaut balak’.

No doubt Tok Guru retired for health reasons. In fact, he has not been in the best of health for some time now. But is this the one and only reason or is he bailing out quickly before the fireworks start: meaning the new state government is going to go on a timber session orgy?

Anyway, Husam has warned he would lawan (oppose/fight) if that happens. But the fact he even needed to issue that warning does not bode well. Are we soon going to see another Kelantan palace crisis like in the late-1980s? The only thing is the Kelantan palace crisis in the late-1980s saw the downfall of Umno in Kelantan. This time around it may see the downfall of PAS in Kelantan.

Talking about the palace, soon after the Sunday general election, His Highness the Sultan of Selangor wrote to DAP, PKR and PAS individually asking these three Pakatan Rakyat parties whom they want as the new Menteri Besar. All three parties replied to the Sultan’s letter naming Khalid Ibrahim.

This upset Azmin Ali because Pakatan Rakyat did not hold a meeting to come to this ‘consensus’. In fact, PKR, too, did not hold any internal meeting to decide on who should be the Menteri Besar. The party President replied to the Sultan’s letter without the party’s ‘approval’.

DAP and PAS won 15 seats each in the Selangor State Assembly while PKR won 14. However, although PKR won one seat less than DAP and PKR, Azmin still considers that PKR won 15 seats and not 14 because PAS engaged PKR in a three-corner fight in Kota Damansara (the PSM candidate contested under the PKR banner). And if you combine the votes that both PAS and PKR got, then the opposition (PKR) would have won that seat instead of Barisan Nasional.

Hence, unofficially, PKR won that seat and thus PKR also unofficially won 15 seats, just like DAP and PAS. The fact that PKR won 14 seats and not 15 is because PAS ‘sabotaged’ PKR.

That is how Azmin looks at it — that DAP, PAS and PKR are ‘equal partners’ with 15 seats each in the Selangor State Assembly. And if you were to read between the lines regarding what Azmin told the press conference yesterday, it is very clear he is challenging the party President’s action in replying to the Sultan’s letter naming Khalid as the Menteri Besar when the party had not made such a decision.

So now it is in His Highness the Sultan’s hand. And, according to the Sultan, it is His Highness’s authority to decide who gets to become the Menteri Besar although the palace can first of all ask for the pandangan (view/opinion) from the parties that won the election.

Finally, it is the Sultan that decides and no one else.

The much-expected meeting between Prime Minister Najib Tun Razak and the de facto Prime Minister, Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad, has finally been held. In fact, it was Najib who requested the meeting.

Najib is now under siege. His people predicted that Barisan Nasional would win 145 seats in Parliament — three seats less to get a two-thirds majority in Parliament but five seats better than what Tun Abdullah Ahmad Badawi did in 2008 (which resulted in his ouster).

Days before the general election it was already confirmed that Barisan Nasional would win more than 130 seats but most likely less than in 2008 — and for sure without a two-thirds majority in Parliament (I distributed this ‘130-145/worse case-best case’ message to many of my close friends last week).

Tun Dr Mahathir had earlier publicly warned Najib that if he could not better Pak Lah’s 2008 performance then he is in deep shit. After the general election, Dr Mahathir said it is up to Umno to decide what happens to Najib. So now Najib is in a state of panic because Umno will ‘decide’ whatever Dr Mahathir wants.

The problem is not so much what to do with Najib. If Najib were to be ousted, just like Pak Lah was soon after the 2008 general election, then Deputy Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin would automatically take over as Prime Minister. The problem is: who would then become the new Deputy Prime Minister?

By convention, once the Prime Minister retires/resigns/dies and the Deputy Prime Minister takes over, then one of the three Vice Presidents of Umno becomes the new Deputy Prime Minister. And who would this person be?

The three Vice Presidents of Umno are Zahid Hamidi (who won by 1,592 votes), Hishammuddin Tun Hussein (who won by 1,515 votes), and Mohd Shafie Apdal (who won by 1,445 votes). This would mean, by convention, Zahid should be the new Deputy Prime Minister. And if Zahid declines the post, then Hishammuddin would be the new Deputy Prime Minister instead. Only if Hishammuddin also declines the post would the job go to Shafie from Sabah — the first time in history that the second top job is going to an East Malaysian (which means he would most likely become the Prime Minister if anything were to happen to Muhyiddin).

Interesting, is it not? Why would Sabah want to now support Anwar Ibrahim when there is a strong likelihood that a Sabahan is going to become the Deputy Prime Minister of Malaysia with a possibility that he would become the Prime Minister later on?

The problem with this, though, is that Shafie is a Najib crony and a member of Najib’s ‘inner circle’ — as is Hishammuddin, Najib’s cousin — while Zahid, who was then the Umno Youth Leader, was the man who worked as Anwar’s ‘hatchet man’ in trying to bring down Dr Mahathir in the pre-Reformasi days.

So can Dr Mahathir afford to oust Najib and allow Muhyiddin to take over when Muhyiddin’s second-in-command would be one of the people who Dr Mahathir does not like? That may yet be Najib’s saving grace. It is not about Muhyiddin but about who will replace Muhyiddin.

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5月5以後（七）

其實問題並不在於納吉是否會退下來。如果他真的退了，那現任副首相慕尤丁將會接手成爲下一任首相，但問題是，誰會頂上慕尤丁的副首相之位呢？根據以往的做法，儅首相退休/辭職/死亡后副首相將會接手，然後巫統的三名副主席的其中一名會出任副首相。那這些人是誰呢？

原文：Raja Petra Kamarudin

譯文：方宙

我第一次和前吉蘭丹大臣聶阿玆見面是在15年前，即1998年。那一次會面是由Mustafa Ali安排的，目的是要和他進行採訪面試。爾後伊斯蘭黨報Harakah把此次採訪翻譯為馬來文刊登出來。

我當時提出了一個很重要的論點，那就是聶阿玆既是吉蘭丹伊黨，吉蘭丹伊黨既是聶阿玆。沒有了Tok Guru（聶阿玆的尊稱），那吉蘭丹的伊黨政府將不會出現。吉蘭丹伊黨或多或少是Tok Guru的同義詞。

我在哥打巴魯的計程車站看見了許多kaki gedebeh (類似私會黨員)，而他們都表示支持Tok Guru，是的，我認識很多kaki gedebeh，而他們都會護送我到Golok再越過邊境去參觀泰國的佛廟（不然我去Golok幹嗎呢？） 。

這些kaki gedebeh 都不是好的回教徒。他們不會祈禱和齋戒，他們會去Golok‘享福’（酒，女人，其他服務等）。你可以聘請他們為你‘解決掉’你的敵人：在他們胸口開一槍，或在他們額頭上送上一把kapak kecik (小斧頭) ；他們還會走私稻米和販賣軍火等等。不過他們還是很支持Tok Guru，不是因爲他來自回教或伊黨，而是因爲他們對他的尊重。

由此可見，如果連‘壞人’都支持Tok Guru的話，那伊黨還會出錯嗎？但如果Tok Guru不再是大臣了，他們還會支持伊黨嗎？我看很難吧!

Tok Guru認同我的論點再加于解釋他現在正在訓練著第二代接班人來接手。他當時有兩三個人選，其中一個當然就是胡桑慕沙Husam Musa。

Tok Guru進一步的釋他有時會缺席某些集會以便那些第二代能夠代表他出席。這不僅僅能夠訓練他們，這還能讓他們有機會和人民見見面，讓人民對他的助手們不會太生疏。

現在Tok Guru退休了，而他的第二代也和他一樣一起‘退休’，而其中一個就是胡桑。他們‘退休’的原因是因爲吉蘭丹蘇丹要把他們踢出局。

根據‘宮廷傳言’，蘇丹想要一片伐木地的主權，但胡桑拒絕了他並且要他根據規章來招標。所以我們看到以上的新聞標題是：如果吉蘭丹新政府要得到伐木地的話，胡桑將會進行抗議。

毫無疑問的，Tok Guru是因健康原因而引退，他的健康在近幾年已大不如前了。但這是他急流勇退的唯一原因抑或他想要在新政府展開伐木鬧劇之前抽身呢？

無論如何，胡桑已經警告說他會進行‘抗議’，但問題是，他必須公開提出抗議這件事已代表了事件的難搞了。我們會否再一次看到1980年代的吉蘭丹危機重演呢？不同的是，在1980年危機后倒臺的是巫統，而這次有可能倒臺的會是伊斯蘭黨。

談起宮廷，在上星期日大選后雪蘭莪蘇丹分別給行動黨，伊黨和公正黨寫了信，問問他們心目中的大臣人選是誰，而他們的回答都是卡立。

這把阿玆敏給惹毛了，因爲他們沒開會就給出了這個一致的答案。事實上，就連公正黨也沒召開内部會議來商討誰會成爲大臣；黨主席在沒有得到黨的‘同意’就回信了。

行動黨和伊黨分別贏得15席而公正黨只贏得14席，但阿玆敏堅持地認爲他們贏得了15席。伊黨在Damansara和公正黨上演了一場三角戰，他認爲如果選民們都把伊黨的票投給公正黨的話，那他們將會擊敗囯陣來贏得那個州席。

所以非正式來講，公正黨是如行動黨和伊黨般贏得了15席而不是14席；他們只贏得14席是因爲伊黨在搞破壞。

這就是阿玆敏的觀點—-民聯三黨都是各以15席鼎立雪州州議會的。如果你聼得出阿玆敏昨天記者招待會的弦外之音，他很明顯地挑戰著黨主席在黨還沒做出決定前就寫信給蘇丹提名卡立為大臣的舉動。

所以現在是看蘇丹要怎樣做了。根據蘇丹表示，他有欽點大臣的最終權，然而宮廷可以先聼聼贏得大選的政黨的意見再作決定。

但最後，還是蘇丹説了算，沒有其他人可以作決定。

那備受矚目的首相納吉和實權首相敦馬的會議終于展開了。事實上，這次是納吉親自要求要和老馬見面的。

納吉現在正前後受敵，他的團隊之前預測他能贏得145個囯席 —-比2/3的148席少3席但比阿都拉在2008年的140席（阿都拉因此而下臺）多5席。

但大選前幾日就有人確定了囯陣只能贏得少過2008年的140席但至少能過130席，而要想贏得2/3多數席就甭談了。（上個星期我向很多朋友傳出了130-145席的消息）。

老馬之前就公開警告過納吉，如果他的表現未能比阿都拉的2008年來得好，那他就會代誌大條了。大選后，老馬又站出來講說巫統會決定納吉的去向。那真的把納吉嚇破膽了，因爲納吉知道巫統會做出老馬想要看到的‘決定’。

其實問題並不在於納吉是否會退下來。如果他真的退了，那現任副首相慕尤丁將會接手成爲下一任首相，但問題是，誰會頂上慕尤丁的副首相之位呢？根據以往的做法，儅首相退休/辭職/死亡后副首相將會接手，然後巫統的三名副主席的其中一名會出任副首相。那這些人是誰呢？

現在巫統的三名副主席為Zahid Hamidi (1,592票當選), Hishammuddin Tun Hussein (1,515 票)，與Mohd Shafie Apdal (1,445票)。意思就是，根據傳統做法，Zahid將是第一人選；如果他拒絕，那機會將會被判給Hishammuddin。而只有連Hishammuddin也拒絕那副首相這個職位才會傳給來自沙巴的Shafie –-這將會成爲馬來西亞史上第一次第二最高職位由一個東馬人出任（也代表他很有可能在未來會出任首相一職，如果慕尤丁發生什麽冬瓜豆腐的話）。

很有趣，不是嗎？現在正當有一個本土沙巴人有機會出任副首相（未來的首相）一職時，他們還有必要支持安華嗎？

背後的問題是，Shafie是個納吉的裙帶關係人兼‘圈内人’—-正如納吉的表弟Hishammuddin一樣—-而Zahid在烈火莫熄前夕是安華的頭馬，他當年官拜巫統青年團長且曾致力協助安華推翻老馬。

所以敦馬現在能把納吉拉下來讓慕尤丁上位嗎？那些副首相人選都是老馬不喜歡的，這可能會成爲納吉的救命稻草；這事件跟慕尤丁不大有關聯而是跟誰會取代慕尤丁大有關聯。