In the aftermath of May 5th (part 9) (UPDATED with Chinese Translation)
You may argue that the Chinese voters have rejected the Chinese from Barisan Nasional and hence the Chinese should not be in the government. But if the Sultan says he wants Chinese in the government then Barisan Nasional will have to make sure that there are Chinese in the government. And if the Sultan says he does not want certain people in the government then these people will have to be dropped from the EXCO list (or as the Menteri Besar).
THE CORRIDORS OF POWER
Raja Petra Kamarudin
Azmin: I will respect and uphold Sultan’s decision
PKR deputy president Azmin Ali said the decision on who would be the Selangor Menteri Besar lies ultimately with the Sultan of Selangor and he will respect it totally. Despite his earlier strong objections over the way party president Datuk Seri Dr Wan Azizah Wan Ismail had submitted a candidate’s name, allegedly without the knowledge of the state party’s leadership, Azmin said that whoever was eventually chosen would have his full backing.
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Okay, how do you ensure that the percentage of seats you win almost matches the percentage of popular votes that you win (say 50% of the votes versus 50% of the seats as opposed to 40% of the votes versus 60% of the seats)?
This was what I wrote in part 8 of this series:
I followed the rally in Ipoh last night (on live streaming) and would like to touch on what Dr. Lee Boon Chye and Anwar Ibrahim said in that rally. Dr Lee lamented that he won with a majority of only 15,000 votes while if there had not been any cheating he would have won with a majority of 30,000 instead.
Can you see that Dr Lee was complaining that he won but that he won with half the majority that he should have? According to Dr Lee, his majority should have been 30,000 instead of just 15,000.
Now, I am not going to argue whether Dr Lee is right or wrong. Let us give him the benefit of the doubt and agree that he is right: that he was cheated out of a 30,000 majority and because of that his majority was only 15,000.
That, to me, is not what Dr Lee should be focusing on. In fact, this is what most Pakatan Rakyat people talk about: the majority that they won. And that is not what a good election strategy is all about.
Barisan Nasional cannot get these large majorities that Pakatan Rakyat can. In many seats that Barisan Nasional won their majorities were very slim. But this does not upset Barisan Nasional as it does Pakatan Rakyat. And this is because Barisan Nasional is not focused on vote majorities like Pakatan Rakyat is but on seat majorities.
Pakatan Rakyat’s support base is concentrated — hence these large majorities. Barisan Nasional’s support base is spread out, especially Umno. So, with the same number of votes, Barisan Nasional can win 50 seats versus only 30 seats for Pakatan Rakyat (see below).
Pakatan Rakyat can win 30,000 or more vote majorities in the seats it contests. But that would mean it is ‘robbing’ another seat of a win. Barisan Nasional may win with a mere 10,000-vote majority but if it wins with a 10,000-vote majority in three seats, this would be three seats versus only one for Pakatan Rakyat.
That is how to win an election with less than 50% of the popular votes like Barisan Nasional — or lose the election with more than 50% of the votes like Pakatan Rakyat.
Now, on the issue of the Menteri Besar of Selangor.
I wrote earlier that His Highness the Sultan of Selangor had written to DAP, PKR and PAS asking the three Pakatan Rakyat parties whom they want as the Menteri Besar. All three replied to the Sultan’s letter naming Khalid Ibrahim.
Some readers, probably Azmin Ali’s supporters, posted some very nasty comments calling me a liar and saying that no such thing happened (I deleted these nasty comments which were very personal in nature). Well, you can choose to believe it or you can choose not to believe it. Nevertheless this did happen.
Azmin has been told (which he admits) that the power and prerogative to appoint the Menteri Besar lies with His Highness. The Sultan can even choose to reject the name or names suggested by Pakatan Rakyat and need not explain the reason why. His Highness can even reject the names of the EXCO Members, as His Highness the Sultan of Kelantan did last week.
Yes, Their Highnesses the Sultans (and His Majesty the Agong) are just Constitutional Monarchs who must ‘listen to the advise’ of the Menteri Besar (or to the Prime Minister for the Agong). But this does not mean the Monarchs are Rubber-Stamp Monarchs even if they may be Constitutional Monarchs.
Can you remember in 2008 when His Highness the Sultan of Selangor rejected Pakatan Rakyat’s candidate for Deputy Menteri Besar, a Chinese from DAP? Finally this man was appointed the Speaker of the Selangor State Assembly as a sort of ‘compromise’.
The bottom line is: the Monarchs do have a certain amount of power and authority. It is just how far they want to exert this authority. Most times, by convention, the Monarchs do not meddle too much in issues concerning politics. But did not His Highness the Sultan of Johor just issue a statement saying that he insists that some Chinese representatives be appointed to the Johor EXCO?
You may argue that the Chinese voters have rejected the Chinese from Barisan Nasional and hence the Chinese should not be in the government. But if the Sultan says he wants Chinese in the government then Barisan Nasional will have to make sure that there are Chinese in the government. And if the Sultan says he does not want certain people in the government then these people will have to be dropped from the EXCO list (or as the Menteri Besar).
You may say you don’t like this and you want the Sultans/Agong to butt out. Well, what if they don’t? Do you want to launch a revolution and ‘storm the Bastille’? Remember that His Majesty the Agong is Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces while the state Monarchs are Colonels-in-Chief of the different branches of the Armed Forces.
So, who holds the guns? Barisan Nasional, Pakatan Rakyat, or the Monarchs?
And it is the Agong, not the Prime Minister, who holds the power to suspend Parliament and declare an Emergency. And the Agong with 100,000 guns and I don’t know how many tanks behind him will have the final say.
TO BE CONTINUED
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5月5之後（九）
你可以爭論說華裔選民已經否決了囯陣的華裔候選人，所以華人不可在政府裏掌權。但如果蘇丹下令要有華人為州政府辦事的話，那囯陣就必須跟著辦。同樣的，如果蘇丹不想某些人成爲行政議員，那這些人也必須落榜（就算是州務大臣也一樣）。
原文：Raja Petra Kamarudin
譯文：方宙
阿玆敏：我會尊重和支持蘇丹的決定
公正黨副主席阿玆敏阿裏表示，雪蘭莪州務大臣的最終任命權是蘇丹陛下的，而他會毫無保留地尊重和跟從蘇丹的選擇。
（下文省略）
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話説回來，你要怎樣確保你的得票巴仙率和你的囯席巴仙率相差無幾呢（比如説50%的得票換來50%的席位而不是40%的得票換來60%的席位）？
讓我重復一遍我在上一篇寫到的：
我昨晚透過綫上的直播來觀看怡保的集會，我要看看安華和李文才醫生到底講了些什麽。李醫生認爲如果此次的大選沒有舞弊的話，他將會以3万票勝出而不是現在的1万5千票。
你看得出李醫生是在投訴著他只是以一半的多票數勝出的嗎？根據他的説法，他的多票數應該是3万而不是1万5。
我不會爭辯他的對錯，就讓我們儅他是對的：他的多數票應該是三万，但現在因爲舞弊所以他只以1万5票勝出。
那對我來説不是李醫生應該注重的。事實上，除了他以外很多民聯人都很注重這一點：他們贏的多票數。但你必須了解這不是一個良好的競選策略所應該注重的。
囯陣不能像民聯般奪得如此大的多票數，他們有些議席都是靠少量的多票數勝出的。但他們對此並沒有抱著太多的憂慮，不像民聯般。這是因爲他們並沒有太注重多票數的多少，他們注重的是席位的多少。
民聯的支持者一般都聚集在一些特定的選區，所以他們的多數票是很大的。囯陣的支持者則是分佈均勻，尤其是巫統的。所以，一樣的選票，囯陣可以換來50席而民聯只能換來30席（請看上表）。
民聯可以以30000多數票拿下一個議席，但這都是從另一個議席‘搶’回來的。囯陣可能只能以10000多數票拿下一個議席，但只要他們以10000多數票拿下三個議席，那就代表他們贏出了3個席位，對比民聯的1個席位。
這就是怎樣以少過50%的選票來贏得大選的方法—-或怎樣以多過50%的選票來輸掉大選的方法。
現在，回到雪州大臣一事。
我之前寫到雪州蘇丹給民聯三黨寫了信，問問他們心目中的大臣人選是誰。他們三回答的都是卡立。
有一些讀者，應該都是阿玆敏的支持者吧，爲此寫下了很多難堪的留言（我都把這些給刪掉了，因爲都是一些人身攻擊），罵我是個騙子和講説以上一切根本就沒有發生過。好，信不信由你，但那確實是發生了。
阿玆敏曾被告知（他自己也有承認）欽選大臣是蘇丹的權利與特權。蘇丹甚至還可以拒絕民聯的建議而不需給出任何理由，他當然也可以拒絕行政委員的提名，正如吉蘭丹蘇丹上個星期的作爲般。
是的，蘇丹（和最高元首）只是必須‘聽從’州務大臣（或首相）的憲法制君主，但這並代表這些君主只是‘橡皮蓋章君主’而已。
你還記得在2008年雪州蘇丹曾拒絕委任一名行動黨的華裔人選為雪州副大臣嗎？之後這個人被委任為州議會的議長，類似一種‘補償’吧。
底綫是，君主在某個領域還是擁有特定權利的，只是眎乎他們要不要運用而已。一般上君主們都不會太插手政治課題，但柔佛蘇丹最近不是指示柔佛州的行政議會裏必須有華裔行政委員嗎？
你可以爭論說華裔選民已經否決了囯陣的華裔候選人，所以華人不可在政府裏掌權。但如果蘇丹下令要有華人在州政府裏的話，那囯陣就必須跟著辦。同樣的，如果蘇丹不想某個人成爲行政議員的話，那這些人也必須落榜（州務大臣也一樣）。
你也可以說你不喜歡蘇丹/元首插手來管這些事而要他們讓步。但如果他們不讓步呢？你會要弄出個大革命來‘佔領巴士底狱’嗎？記住，最高元首是國家的最高軍事將領，而蘇丹們也在軍隊裏有不同的統領權利。
所以是誰控制了武力和槍械？囯陣，民聯，還是君主們呢？
還有，懸吊國會和宣佈全國進入緊急狀態是最高元首的權利，不是首相的。最高元首背後的10万支槍支和數不清的坦克車會確保這一點。
（敬請期待下一篇文章）
