Did two million rural voters decide for Malaysia?

Among the election “literature” distributed prior to the 13th general election (GE13) was Tindak Malaysia’s analysis of Malaysia’s electoral outlook. 

 

By virtue of Tindak Malaysia’s position as a non-partisan community movement that conducted voter education and election agent training, the analysis was widely circulated via social media. 

 

The analysis examined the 2008 political landscape and drew conclusions as to the probable results of the GE13. 

 

Tindak Malaysia’s main political premise was that BN would never lose a general election because its re-delineation strategy ensured that it won most of the smaller rural parliamentary seats while Pakatan Rakyat took most of the larger but lesser urban seats. 

 

The movement ranked the 222 parliamentary constituencies according to the size of their voters based on 2008 data. Most of the rural areas, aside from Putrajaya, made up the first 112 seats. 

 

To further illustrate its point, Tindak Malaysia compared the smallest parliamentary seat of Putrajaya to the largest seat of Kapar. Putrajaya’s 6,608 voters when compared to Kapar’s 112,224 voters resulted in a ratio of 1:17. This means one vote in Putrajaya is worth 17 in Kapar.

 

Today, Putrajaya and Kapar have 15,791 and 144,159 registered voters respectively. 

 

According to Tindak Malaysia founder, Wong Piang Yow, BN only needed to win a simple majority of 51% in 112 of the smaller parliamentary seats to stay on as the ruling government also by a simple majority. 

 

And based on his calculations, BN had easily won 112 seats within the first 139 seats (according to voters’ size) in the 2008 general election with a total of 2.08 million votes. 

 

“Do you agree that two million can decide for 28 million?” he asked in the analysis.

 

The official GE13 figures have yet to be gazetted but Wong has estimated that 2.26 million voters had decided for Malaysia on May 5. 

 

Tindak Malaysia’s analysis also emphasised that the bulk of the 112 seats were in Malay-majority rural areas and had a total voter count of less than 45,000 each.

 

“For a simple majority rule, the rural bumiputeras decide,” Tindak Malaysia stated. “Only for two-thirds majority do the non-bumiputeras have a say.” 

 

“Is it a coincidence that the poorest groups with the worst infrastructure, education and healthcare facilities are the kingmakers?”