It’s all about strategy (UPDATED with Chinese translation)
Then came the 2008 general election and the impressive results gave everyone a lot of hope. So everything that was said earlier was now forgotten. But what they forgot is that Barisan Nasional won 63% of the seats on just 52% of the votes. In 1969, they won 66% of the seats on just 49% of the votes. How many percent of the votes do you think Barisan Nasional would need to garner in 2013 to still win more than 50% of the seats?
THE CORRIDORS OF POWER
Raja Petra Kamarudin
“We are not interested in the Election Commission fixing the mistakes in the coming 14th general election,” Anwar Ibrahim shouted at the rally in Johor last week. “We want the commission to declare that Pakatan won the 13th GE!”
“Never in the history of mankind, have dictators, with tanks and guns, been able to stand up against the might of people power,” he said. “So defend your rights. This is not about Anwar. It is about the future of Malaysia and the younger generation,” he said.
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I have been writing about my personal experience in Malaysia’s general elections for a long time now.
I related what happened in the 2004 general election when I was in charge of the opposition’s campaign in Putrajaya and about the knife fight I was involved in against eight Umno thugs and how our candidate’s son was beaten up and how the police hauled me to the police station and the “back off or go home in a coffin” promise I gave the shocked Putrajaya Head of the Special Branch.
I explained that the opposition normally attracts crowds in the tens of thousands at its ceramah while the ruling party can’t even attract 100 people but yet the ruling party will win that seat.
I warned that it is seats and not votes that will give you the government and that majority votes does not translate to majority seats while Barisan Nasional can still form the government with less than 50% of the popular votes while the opposition may need close to 60% of the votes to take over.
I highlighted the fact that 70% of the seats are in the rural areas plus in the Malay heartland and if Pakatan Rakyat captures just the urban areas then it is not going to win the election.
I cautioned that the two East Malaysian states of Sabah and Sarawak control 25% of the seats in Parliament and are Barisan Nasional’s ‘fixed deposit’ and unless Pakatan Rakyat can capture not less than 30 of the 57 seats there then forget about forming the federal government.
I reminded you that West Malaysia has only 165 parliamentary seats and at best Pakatan Rakyat and Barisan Nasional will share about half each (80-85, 81-84, 82-83, etc.) — which means a ‘hung parliament’ — and hence Sabah and Sarawak are going to be the ‘Kingmakers’.
I told you the story about how I helped compile the evidence of election fraud soon after the 2004 general election to attach as evidence in the various Election Petition’s that we filed in court but later PAS and Umno did a deal to withdraw their respective Election Petitions — except for the Election Petition that Umno filed against PKR’s President, Dr Wan Azizah Wan Ismail, that still proceeded in court (and which Dr Wan Azizah subsequently and surprisingly won).
Yes, I told you about all this and much, much more. And I told you all this not just after the 5th May 2013 general election but for a long time since the 1999, 2004 and 2008 general elections.
So don’t shout and scream about all these issues. Stop telling me about what I already know and about what I have been telling you myself for a long time. What you are telling me is only 10% of what I already know.
Have you had meetings with the Election Commission (SPR) to complain about Malaysia’s unfair election system? I have.
Have you told the SPR what needs to be done to make Malaysia’s election system fairer? I have.
Have you heard what the SPR has to say about our complaints and proposals? I have.
Have you engaged the camp commandants of the various military camps all over Malaysia in discussions about how the postal voting system is conducted and how come 100% of the military votes invariably end up in favour of Barisan Nasional? I have.
Have you sneaked in to the police station to spy on the police personnel voting using the postal voting system to witness how it is done? I have.
So don’t act shocked. You knew what was going on. I told you what was going on. You knew what was going to happen on 5th May 2013. I told you what was going to happen on 5th May 2013. But what did you do about it?
I even once, back in 2004, proposed that the opposition boycott the general election. It is pointless to participate in a general election that is fraudulent and in which you are going to get whacked anyway. By participating in something fraudulent you are just giving legitimacy to a corrupt system.
In short, launch a boycott and a civil disobedience campaign and bring this to the attention of the world that the government is illegitimate because it is holding on to power without getting properly voted into office since Malaysians are boycotting the election.
But the opposition did not think it was a good idea. In 1999, they had won Kelantan and Terengganu plus 45 parliamentary seats. If they participate in the 2004 general election they can add Perlis and Kedah and to that list plus maybe even increase the 45 parliamentary seats to 80 or 90.
Instead, they ended up losing Terengganu and got reduced from 45 parliamentary seats to just 21. Barisan Nasional won 91% of the seats on just 64% of the popular votes.
Then came the 2008 general election and the impressive results gave everyone a lot of hope. So everything that was said earlier was now forgotten. But what they forgot is that Barisan Nasional won 63% of the seats on just 52% of the votes. In 1969, they won 66% of the seats on just 49% of the votes. How many percent of the votes do you think Barisan Nasional would need to garner in 2013 to still win more than 50% of the seats?
Well, what the opposition politicians are trying to tell us is that if you win 51% of the votes then this would mean you have won the election and therefore you will be the legitimate government.
What a load of bullshit! Have you not been listening to what we have been saying these last 15 years?
It is not about votes. It is about seats. And, more importantly, it is about how you spread out these votes to make sure that your votes are in the less densely populated areas and not concentrated in the more highly populated areas.
Do you think this only happens in Malaysia?
Well, look at what happened to the UK in 2010. Look at the map below. Study the graphics. See where Labour’s voters live. See where Conservative’s voters live. See where Liberal Democrat’s voters live. Study the spread of the voters. Then understand how you can win or lose the UK election.
Then understand, as well, how you can also win or lose the election in Malaysia.
Of course there was gerrymandering. Of course there was also fraud. But solving gerrymandering and fraud is still not going to give you the government unless you also get the spread right.
While we can blame SPR for the first two sins, the opposition must take the blame for the last sin.
The opposition acted like a bull in a china shop. They still are, in fact. But they lacked strategy. And this is partly (or maybe even more instrumental) why they did not get in to Putrajaya, gerrymandering and fraud notwithstanding.
And before you say that that is the UK and we are talking about Malaysia, well, is not Malaysia using UK’s election system?
Maybe there is no fraud in the UK. Maybe the gerrymandering is not so bad in the UK. Maybe the voter variance between constituencies is not that critical and quite acceptable in the UK. But the party that garnered lesser votes still won more seats in the UK even without fraud and a serious problem of gerrymandering and voter variance.
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全都是視乎你的策略
然後就到了2008年大選，而那屆的可觀成績給了所有人希望，他們都把之前的問題都給忘了。他們忘了囯陣在那個時候僅僅以52%的選票就能奪得63%的囯席數。在1969年囯陣只是以49%的選票就拿下66%的囯席了。你想想看在2013年他們只需要多少巴仙的選票就能贏得至少50%的囯席？
原文：Raja Petra Kamarudin
譯文：方宙
“我們對選舉委員會更正第14屆大選的錯誤不感興趣，”安華上星期在柔佛的集會如此吼到。“我們要的是選舉會就此宣佈民聯贏了第13屆大選！”
“在人類歷史上從來沒有一個持槍持炮的獨裁者是能悍得過人民的力量，”他說到。“所以你必須捍衛你自己。這不是為安華做的，這是爲了馬來西亞下一代做的。”
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我從很久以前就開始發表我對大馬選舉的看法了。
我曾引用我在2004年大選擔任反對黨布城競選活動負責人時所發生的故事：我和巫統小混混發生了刀械爭執，我們的候選人兒子被痛打，我被警察捉去警察局，我對布城特別單位領導作出“現在放棄不然就用棺材送你回家”的誓言。
我解釋過，反對黨的講座會往往能吸引上萬人群而執政黨的只有小貓兩三只，但最終執政黨還是會贏得席位。
我曾勸戒過是席位數而不是選票數把你送進布城的。多票數並不代表多席位數，而巫統只需少過50%的選票就能執政而反對黨則需將近60%。
我曾強調70%的席位都位于鄉區和馬來區，所以就算民聯贏光所有城市區還是沒法贏得大選的。
我曾警告過巫統的‘鉄票區’即東馬沙砂州控制了25%的席位，除非民聯有辦法贏得57席中的至少30席，不然他們可以忘掉他們的組織政府美夢。
我曾提醒你西馬只有165席囯席而民聯最多只能和囯陣平分（80-85，81-84等）—-換句話說他們只能造成‘懸吊國會’—–所以沙砂兩州會成爲‘造王者’。
我曾告訴過你在04年大選后我收集大選舞弊證據的故事。我們在上訴選舉成績時我把這些證據一併呈上，但後來伊黨和巫統都因達成共識而撤銷他們彼此閒的上訴—-除了巫統對公正黨主席旺姐的選區所提出的上訴以外，巫統堅持把這個案件帶上法庭（旺姐後來很離奇地贏得此案件）。
我告訴了你們很多很多的故事。這些都不是我在2013年5月5號后才來的馬後砲，我早在1999年，2004年，和2008年大選就不停地重復了。
所以別對這些課題大喊大叫。別來告訴我我已經知道的東西和我自己已經告訴過你的東西。你所要告訴我的只是我所知道的10%而已。
你曾就馬來西亞的不公平選舉系統而跟選舉委員會開會嗎？我做過。
你曾告訴選舉會應該怎樣做才能確保選舉系統是公平的嗎？我做過。
你曾經聼過選舉會對我們的投訴和建議的回應嗎？我聼過。
你曾經向大馬各地軍營的營長了解過，爲何100%的軍人郵寄選票都會變成囯陣的選票嗎？我做過。
你曾混進警察局來偷看警察們是怎樣進行郵寄投票來了解整個郵寄投票的流程嗎？我做過。
所以別來跟我裝得很驚訝。你早就知道會發生什麽事情了，我早就告訴你會發生什麽事情了。你早就知道5月5那天會發生什麽事情，我早就告訴你5月5那天會發生什麽事情了。但你都做了些什麽？
我在2004年甚至曾呼籲反對黨站出來杯葛大選。在一個你永遠會被打得趴地的欺詐性選舉系統裏參選是件很沒意思的事。儅你願意加入這個充滿欺詐的系統時你正間接地給著它合法性。
簡短一點來説，我們必須發動一場杯葛來獲得國際社會的注意；這個政府是非法的，因爲它不是由人民正統地選上去的，因爲人民正杯葛著大選。
但反對黨不認爲這是個很好的主意；他們在1999年贏得了吉蘭丹與登嘉樓的政權和45個囯席，如果他們參加2004年大選的話就可以更進一步地奪得吉打與玻璃市，他們甚至還有可能看到當時的45囯席增加到八九十席。
但，他們最終失去了登嘉樓政權和把他們的45個囯席輸剩21席。囯陣以64%的選票贏得了將近91%的囯席。
然後就到了2008年大選，而那屆的可觀成績給了所有人希望，他們都把之前的問題都給忘了。他們忘了囯陣在那個時候僅僅以52%的選票就能奪得63%的囯席數。在1969年囯陣只是以49%的選票就拿下66%的囯席了。你想想看在2013年他們只需要多少巴仙的選票就能贏得至少50%的囯席？
現在，那些反對黨政客所告訴你的是只要你贏得了51%的選票，那就代表你已在大選裏勝出了，進而你就是合法的政府。
真他媽的扯蛋！你們都聼不到我們在過去15年裏不停地在跟你講的東西嗎？
這和選票是無關的，席位才是真正的王道。更重要的是，你要如何把你手中的選票給分散去那些比較少人的選區而不是都把你的選票放在人口很集中的選區。
你以爲這只發生在大馬嗎？
好吧，咱們就來看看2010年英國大選發生了什麽事。看看以上地圖，了解一下這些圖片。看看工黨的支持者都住在哪裏，看看保守黨的支持者都住在哪裏，看看自由民主黨的支持者都住在哪裏。好好分析這些選民的分散度，然後去理解看你應該怎樣贏得或輸掉英國大選。
與此同時你也應該領悟出怎樣才能贏得或輸掉馬來西亞大選。
不均勻的選區選民數gerrymandering當然是存在的，舞弊當然是存在的。但是單單把這兩個問題去除掉並不足以讓你儅上政府，你還是得確保你把分散度掌控得很好。我們可以把前兩個罪名都怪在選舉會身上，但反對黨他們必須自己承擔那最後一個罪名。
反對黨現在動作就像是野牛般，但他們正正缺乏的就是策略。除了不均勻的選民數和舞弊以外，策略就是導致他們進不了布城的原因。
在你開始講説我們談及的是馬來西亞不是英國之前，想想，馬來西亞不正是沿用著英國的選舉系統嗎？
英國可能沒有舞弊。英國的不均勻選民數問題可能沒有那麽嚴重。英國各個選區之間的選民數差別可能沒有這麽大。但是，英國的一些政黨還是以少數選票就贏來了多數的席位。
