Malaysia’s Post 13th GE: Issues, Risks & the Myth of Transformation
Khoo Kay Peng
I was asked the same question over and over again by my peers, clients and the media. I did not give an immediate answer because it is precise a “post-GE’ assessment. There is a need to review and analyze the responses from various stakeholders, parties and observers. There is necessity to feel the pulse of the nation before a valid and fact-based observation can be made.
There are a few themes which emerged from the 13th GE. Some of the issues and repercussions are going to be highlighted in point form. Firstly, I would like to highlight the key issues:
1) Division: It is quite clear now that the 13th GE has created more divisions than common grounds. The is more profound political difference between the two coalitions – PR and BN – and their supporters. The whole political discourse has become either black or white. It is either you are with us or you are against us. It was compounded by the fact that the Opposition PR had expected to win the GE but was not successful. On the other hand, the BN regime had singled out the low Chinese support as the main reason for their less than stunning victory.
Hence, the two coalitions are caught in an awkward situation. PR had blamed the electoral system and the alleged frauds as the main reason for their unsuccessful campaign. BN had blamed the Chinese community for their predicament. Both cannot accept anything than an absolute victory at the polls.
Continuous post GE bickering over the election results, now preceded by the petitions, is going to drag on for months to come and is going drag in a lot of their supporters and members as well. This is the first sign of division.
Worse case scenario, the division might even expanded to include the rural-urban divide, ethnicity (Malay versus Non-Malay), alternative versus mainstream media and religion (remotely). On the urban-rural divide, the dialogue has involved both the communitarian and morality dimension. It has become socially unthinkable to take a centrist position without being berated by one’s social circle. Supporters from both coalitions have taken to peer pressure and communitarianism to press for support and compliance from their friends, colleagues and peers. This is often coated with both communal and morality arguments.
2) Credibility Crisis. The newly minted PR has won almost 90% of all urban seats, leaving BN with both semi-rural and rural seats. However, any discourse concerning the nation is often dictated by the urbanites. The emergence of the online social tools such as the Twitter, Facebook, Blog, Youtube etc. the dominant discourse is not one the ruling regime will cherish.
On the polling night itself, after news that the BN had successfully formed the Federal government, the public discourse on the Internet had established its foothold, intent, shape and agenda. The BN regime and the institutions and processes created by its regime were going to be discredited so that the PR would gain immediate advantage and influence over the minds of the urbanites.
Even with a comfortable mandate and majority, the BN is going to find a hard time restoring its credibility if it cannot influence the discourse. BN might continue to rule but the PR would continue to hold on to their influence and electoral gains and hopefully to build on them.
What is worse and damaging is the credibility crisis has grown internationally. Supporters and leaders of the PR coalition are taking their grouses to the UN, the White House, the UK government, Australia and other international platforms. A number of fraud allegations were made online and they were quickly replicated and shared out by the followers.
The coalition led by de facto leader Anwar Ibrahim was quick to respond with the “Blackout 505” rallies throughout the country to blame the coalition’s defeat on electoral fraud and a partial Election Commission. Soon, the fault lines expanded to include the First Past the Post electoral system, gerrymandering, imbalanced rural-urban voters ratio, indelible ink and weightage and others. Calls were made by the pro-PR NGOs for the EC heads to step down.
All these allegations were made before the election petitions were filed and up till today there was no incriminating evidence on illegal Bangladeshi voters or actual blackout at the counting centre. Nonetheless, the intention was clear – to ruin the credibility of the victor in the elections and to cast doubts on the electoral system, agency, players and rules. Here, the PR has successfully taken a higher moral ground and has won the perception war on the back of the newly elected government’s credibility.
It is important to note that because the discourse was dominated by largely the pro-PR urbanites, the allegations made and rumours spread by the PR to gain electoral advantage during the campaign period were never challenged or questioned or brought up in any of the civil discourse.
To make the matter worse, the BN had actually committed various money related offenses during the campaign period. Most of them were committed via their ‘supporters’ and not directly through their candidates or parties. The electoral abuses are going to haunt the regime in the coming days and even leading up to the next GE.
3) Directionless. We can positively expect the political bickering to continue in the coming months if not years leading to the next GE. PR has made impressive gains not only in the Parliament but also in most of the state assemblies. While we rejoice at the birth of the two party system, the real two party system can only be beneficial if both coalitions know when to bicker and when to cooperate. Perpetual bickering is the most likely scenario here. Mutual competition and opposition is going to happen on all policy decisions and this can be really distractive to governance.
On the aspect of economic management, there is a need for a bipartisan cooperation since the BN has control over finances and the Federal administration while PR is leading the two biggest economies in Malaysia; Penang and Selangor. On economic competitiveness, the country must find viable solutions to a vast array of issues e.g. finding new economic frontiers, fostering a vibrant economy to attract more local and foreign investments, create more valued added jobs, solving the income bottlenecks, moving up the value chain and technology adoption, regional positioning and strengthening trade.
A number of these issues cannot be addressed without ironing out the political differences between these two coalitions. The political risk posed by the bickering coalitions is enough to turn off any potential mid-to-long term commitment and investment in the country.
There is a danger of the BN government being selective in its economic direction and stimulation. Some hawkish leaders in UMNO are already calling for a tit-for-tat action against the Chinese community for rejecting their hand of “friendship”. Utusan Malaysia, the conservative UMNO mouthpiece, has been publishing provocative headlines on the Chinese voters’ snub against the UMNO-led ruling regime. The same leaders have suggested to the Najib administration to focus more and reward the Malay, Indian and Sabah and Sarawak natives for supporting the regime.
If Najib’s submits his administration to the internal pressure, it might spells more instability for the private sector investment in Malaysia. There is going to be a greater outflow of funds and talents overseas.
There is little to differentiate the economic model of both PR and BN; although the former claimed to be more credible and accountable. However, there has not been any major institutional or systemic transformation in both Selangor and Penang over the last 5 years. During the 13th GE, both coalitions had stuck to the populist policy by promising more grants and subsidies to the lower income group.
There was little mention of transformation, reformation and overhaul of the socio-economic model and governance. There was no mention of their respective foreign policy direction. Hence, it is suffice to note that the socio-economic model and the foreign policy direction would not be undergoing any major transformation apart from the check-and-balance e.g. open tender, counter wastage and corruption proposed by the PR.
