Umno’s directions
Another factor that will determine the party’s future is whether it will cooperate with PAS. If PAS were to withdraw from the opposition pact, the extreme rightists within the party will be even more fearless.
Lim Sue Goan, mysinchew.com
Whether you like it or not, over the next five years the helm of the country is still held in the hands of Umno. The upcoming Umno elections will decide how the party is going to respond to its loss of support from urban, Chinese and young voters, and which way will the party be headed to come the 14th general elections.
Firstly, Najib has won unchallenged, showing that he is tactically smarter than his predecessor Tun Abdullah.
Having failed to secure two-thirds majority in 2008 general elections and the state administrations of Selangor, Perak, Penang and Kedah, Abdullah was facing threats of unseating him. He later handed over the stewardship to Najib a year later.
In the 13th general elections, Najib not only failed to get back the two-thirds majority, BN also won seven fewer parliamentary seats than in 2008 while Selangor remained strongly in the hands of Pakatan.
However, Umno’s overall performance was better than in 2008, winning 88 seats (nine seats more) while recapturing Kedah and retaining Perak.
Voices against Najib were heard after the elections, including those accusing him of trying to please non-Malay voters, but like former PM Mahathir has said, there are no more suitable persons to lead Umno now besides Najib.
Najib has tried to keep at bay opposing forces from the conservatives within the party, keeping at very low profile over various sensitive issues while throwing out the bumi economic empowerment policy on the eve of the nomination day, allowing him to finally win unopposed.
Najib has displayed a very high level of political mastery, patience and political mobilisation to smoothly sail past the first GE under his steersmanship and party elections.
Although the two top posts remain unchanged, given the overall younger trend in the leadership, Umno inevitably enters a new phase of takeover, but who will be the heirs to the future leadership?
The deputy president, in accordance with party traditions, will naturally take over the baton and Umno has all the time avoided to see contests of top party posts with the rare exception of the party elections in 1993 where Anwar’s “Wawasan” team managed to force deputy president Ghafar Baba to a corner. As if that is not enough, Mahathir changed three deputies during his presidency.
The power to challenge the deputy president has always lied with the PM. When Tun Hussein Onn was the prime minister, he picked Mahathir over Tengku Razaleigh. Consequently, Muhyiddin, who is older than Najib, could be challenged three years from now.
To become the rightful heir to the throne, a person must be firmly seated in vice presidency. There are six candidates vying for the three positions in this year’s party elections, namely the three incumbents home minister Ahmad Zahid Hamidi, defence minister Hishammuddin Tun Hussein and rural and regional development minister Mohd Shafie Apdal, along with three challengers Kedah menteri besar Mukhriz Mahathir, former Negeri Sembilan menteri besar Mohd Isa Abdul and former Melaka chief minister Mohd Ali Rustam.
The three incumbents have an edge, being from the major states of Perak, Johor and Sabah. That said, a chief minister or menteri besar has better control over the votes in the state than a federal minister because many local officers have been appointed directly by the state chairmen. Moreover, there is the tradition of vote swapping in Umno’s elections. For instance, state “A” and state “B” will reach some accord in private where central delegates are instructed to support each other’s candidates.
