Sending mixed signals … again

Lessons over the weekend may point the way on what to expect in the Umno elections on Oct 19.

Karim Raslan, The Star

UMNO elections are never boring, despite the fact that this year the top two posts remain uncontested.

The vastly expanded voter base and new election system is terra nova for Umno. What hasn’t changed is the tension of the smoke-filled halls of the PWTC of elections gone by.

With the weekend’s leadership contests for the party’s three wings – Pemuda, Wanita and Puteri – Umno delegates have once again proved that the party can still surprise, confuse and yes, disappoint.

On one hand, delegates retained the progressive, if divisive Youth Chief Khairy Jamaluddin whilst also anointing Masjid Tanah MP Mas Ermieyati Samsuddin as the new Puteri head.

Khairy resisted the racial rhetoric of his challengers and remained rooted to the ideological centre.

This paid off as seen by his clean sweep of all the Youth divisions and it gives him the opportunity to remould Pemuda.

While it may infuriate certain retired Umno leaders, ultimately this is good for the party: it gives it a fighting chance to regain the centrist, urban and youth votes it has struggled with and largely lost.

Progressives like Khairy are essential for Umno’s future.

It needs to move out of its rural heartlands. If it wants to do so, it needs leaders like Khairy, who more than tripled his majority in Rembau in the last elections where others plummeted.

It will also force Rafizi Ramli and Nurul Izzah to redouble their energies because Khairy is the only Umno leader capable of shaking their hold of the younger Malay mindset.

At the same time, the Puteris have struggled to shine at national level.

Mas Ermieyati who had campaigned intelligently, focusing on the need to restore confidence in the wing will give them a second chance.

Indeed, it’s reassuring that Umno’s younger members have spoken so boldly when the ladies in red (Wanita Umno) have appeared so unconcerned with public opinion.

It’s a shame that Shahrizat Abdul Jalil – who deserves to be congratulated for her victory and political acumen – didn’t also see fit to run in the last general election. Victory in the general election would have silenced her critics.

As such (and this despite her strength in the party), she remains a weakened and controversial figure on the broader national stage.

Wanita showed great courage by refusing to be dictated to (especially by men) when they elected their leaders.

Despite what many Umno diehards feel, being popular amongst the general public is a good thing.

So what – if anything – did last weekend tell us about what’s going to happen on Oct 19?

First: There’s clearly some sort of an inter-generational shift going on within the party. Whilst the younger members want to move to the centre and reconnect with new constituencies, the older members are firmly focused on the above-mentioned Umno bubble (or is it a tempurung?) – a world where the only things that matter are Utusan Malaysia, Putrajaya, TV3 and the 38th Floor of the PWTC.

Second: Delegates don’t like to be told who to vote for – which explains why the top two office-holders have not released their “laundry lists” or “menus” so to speak.

Third: Umno voters remain cautious and conservative. Having invested years, if not decades in building their respective networks, they’re unwilling to jettison the personalities they’ve spent years if not decades supporting – ergo the party’s love affair with what it sees as “gradual change”.

Rocking the boat? No way.

Fourth: Whilst Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad is still wildly respected and adored by party members, his influence on the delegates may well have been over-estimated. He is a catalyst – pushing and cajoling his “flock” into action – but no more.

However, when it comes to the details, the members will do exactly what they want, when they want.

What else would explain Khairy and Shahrizat’s sweeping victories when neither of the two were Dr M’s favourites.

Fifth: With more than 146,500 delegates voting under the new electoral system, it’s impossible to meet all the delegates face-to-face. This has necessitated a much more mediagenic series of campaigns, with an emphasis on public perception of a candidate’s achievements and potential.

It’s to be hoped that this more modern and open process will equip Umno for the challenges of 2018 (or whenever the next elections are) as the built advantages of being “parti kerajaan” (i.e. a compliant media, control of government machinery, etc.) become less and less useful in the face of technological change.

As Umno members re-group to deal with the vice-presidential and supreme council contests, it’s important for them to remember that they are selecting their line-up for 2018.

Again, those who are popular within Umno may not be vote-winners in the broader community. Losers are losers, winners are winners and Umno, if it wants to survive, needs to move with the times and dump the losers.