This is how Pakatan can win Johor
Johor finds itself at the frontlines of a political battle like never before, and to go the distance, Pakatan must rethink and strategise comprehensively, covering all angles.
By Liew Chin Tong, FMT
The biggest take away from the 2013 election is that Barisan Nasional no longer has any more fortresses or fixed deposits.
Pakatan Rakyat’s breakthrough in Johor signals the beginning of the end for the BN model of politics and economics. If Pakatan is able to capture Johor, then taking federal power will be possible.
In order to successfully replace the BN model in Johor, we must present our own credible new discourse of Pakatan’s approach towards politics and economics.
Johor is a shining example of the BN model. Since Independence, the Alliance model has cultivated a ruling class from all races.
Post 1970s, the survival of the BN model depended on Umno obtaining above 60% of the Malay vote, and – before 2008 – BN obtaining at least 40% of the Chinese vote.
After the 2003 constituency re-delineation exercise, most Johor parliamentary seats are now multiracial. Out of the 26 parliamentary seats, there are 18 with less than 60% Malay voters or above 40% non Malay voters.
BN had learnt their lesson from the 1999 election scenario where Umno lost Malay support but BN gained Chinese support. Hence the need to hedge their bets by creating more constituencies with diverse ethnic population.
Ironically in 2008 the losses suffered by BN in the west coast of Peninsular Malaysia were all from ethnically mixed constituencies.
In early 2013, I raised the theory of a “chain reaction” or domino effect. I pointed out BN’s weak spots in Johor – that 18 mixed-race constituencies were prime targets to fall, 13 of which Pakatan had better chances in.
We only managed to win five parliamentary seats but it was an improvement from the sole seat won in 2008. In fact, eight seats were won marginally by BN: Segamat, Sekijang, Labis, Ledang, Muar, Tebrau, Pasir Gudang, and Pulai.
BN is in a precarious situation, gaining less than 60% of the Malay vote, less than 20% of the Chinese vote and less than half of the Indian vote.
Umno’s current approach of race-based politics and extremist political logic is unlikely to win many non-Malays back to the fold. Umno’s biggest challenge is to win the votes of the non-elite Malay and the working class.
Voter trends
Increasingly, the party is being perceived as a mutual benefit club for the political elite and crony class. It is seen to be far removed from the daily lives of blue collar citizens, even oppressing their survival.
We can foresee two trends in the future composition of voters.
Firstly, as many as six million new voters could be added to the mix in future elections. According to the statistics, Malaysia’s voters exceeded 10 million in 2008.
By 2013, we hit over 16 million citizens aged 21 and above, with a total of over 13 million voters.
Every year at least 500,000 people come of age. In addition to those who are eligible but have not registered as voters, the total could exceed six million.
Secondly, Malays make up over two thirds of the newly registered voters. Having more Malay voters present a headache for Umno and BN.
The greater the population of non-elite Malays grows, the more job opportunities and social mechanism are needed, and the more voices of dissent will be heard.
Pakatan’s challenge is to ride the wave of dissent while resentment against the government is high, to convince the ordinary Malays that Pakatan’s policies will look after their well-being.
We must find ways to assist the largely Malay-dominated semi-urban labour intensive industry without neglecting the largely non-Malay Small and Medium Industries (SMEs).
In the new economic landscape, we must come to terms with the expectations and aspirations of Malaysians working in Singapore, particularly the majority Johor-born cohort.
Let us look at five major areas in Johor.
