Win big in Kajang or not at all, analysts tell PKR
By Zurairi AR, The Malay Mail
PKR candidate Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim risks humiliation if he fails to win the Kajang by-election with a bigger margin than the man who stepped aside to let him compete, analysts said.
In comparison, even denting PKR’s majority could count as a win for Barisan Nasional (BN), they said, adding that a win for the 13-party coalition would be near impossible in the Pakatan Rakyat (PR)-administered state.
“This will be a challenge for Anwar. He has to win big to show that Kajang supports him,” Professor Dr Shamsul Adabi Mamat from Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia (UKM) told The Malay Mail Online.
“If he wins with less than a 6,000 majority then this might as well be a loss for him. This is because he is the opposition leader and one of PR’s top leaders.”
In the May 5 general election last year, PKR’s Lee Chin Cheh won a six-cornered fight with a 6,824 majority, only to resigned from the state assembly in January, allowing Anwar to contest in the resulting by-election which will be held on March 23.
Lee’s voluntary resignation fuelled rumours that it was engineered to allow Anwar to join the state assembly for the purpose of removing Mentri Besar Tan Sri Khalid Ibrahim from his post.
PKR had wrested the seat from BN in the 2008 election. Its candidate Lee Kim Sin won by a 3,268 majority.
“If BN can win or even massively reduce any votes for PR then it will be a positive sign for them, said Professor Datuk Dr Mohamad Abu Bakar, a political analyst from Universiti Malaya (UM).
But political scientist James Chin held a different view. The Monash University professor said that while a narrower winning margin could mean that Anwar is losing his magic, it should not hurt his ambitions.
“What matters is that Anwar wins so that he can be mentri besar,” the political analyst told The Malay Mail Online.
A narrower winning margin could also mean that the public has become fed up with too much politicking, Chin said.
The run-up towards what has been dubbed “the Kajang move” was marked by several flip-flops from Anwar over his intention to contest the seat. The public spat between Selangor MB Khalid and Selangor PKR chief Azmin Ali also has not helped public perception.
Shamsul Adabi from UKM said that any dissatisfaction over PKR and PR’s alleged politicking would not reflect sentiment at grassroots level in an area considered their stronghold.
All three analysts agreed that the by-election will be a yardstick to measure the popularity of both PR and BN almost a year after the GE13.
“We have to see this as a testing field for all parties,” UM’s Mohamad said.
“For BN, this is a time to polish up its image, while for PR it is mainly a re-evaluation of its performance after winning Selangor again.”
Shamsul Adabi shared Mohamad’s opinion, saying it will offer valuable insight over the kind of candidates that may feature in the 14th general elections.
As of 2013, there were 39,278 registered voters in Kajang. Forty-eight per cent are Malay, 41 per cent Chinese and 10 per cent Indian.
The Election Commission has set March 23 as the date for the Kajang by-election, giving all parties 12 days to campaign for votes after nomination day on March 11.
