Why it’s in Umno’s best interest to give everyone an equal voice
Sheridan Mahavera, TMI
Contrary to the prevalent theory in Umno, the party’s continued survival hinges on its ability to broadly appeal to all sections of Malaysian society – including urbanites and non-Muslims who ditched it in the last general election.
Analysts told The Malaysian Insider that it would be a mistake to think the Malay nationalist party can maintain power in Parliament by carving out more Malay-majority seats from the redrawing of electoral boundaries.
Neither would it be viable for Umno to constantly play up racial and religious sentiments to draw in more Malay-Muslim support to win in those seats, they said.
Instead, the analysts who spoke at a forum on electoral reforms, showed changes in Malaysian demographics and voting patterns were going to force Umno, or any political party, to be inclusive and serve diverse communities.
The increasing diversity of Malaysian society can be seen in how 70% of the voters now live in urban centres mostly along the west coast of the peninsula, said independent pollster Merdeka Center.
In fact, one-third of Malaysia’s population now live in the Klang valley, said its director Ibrahim Suffian.
Yet the number of constituencies, represented in seats in Parliament, does not reflect this fact.
There are more sparsely populated rural seats in the peninsula’s east coast and Sarawak and Sabah which give rural voters more say who gets to form the federal government.
The pundits also argued this is where Umno and the Barisan Nasional (BN) East Malaysian parties draw their strength.
This was why Umno and the BN only won 47.38% of all votes cast, while Pakatan Rakyat (PR) won 50.87%, yet the BN gets to rule the country, they added.
By their logic, the next electoral delineation exercise in March this year, where constituency boundaries are drawn, is expected to create more such seats.
That way Umno will get more so-called safe seats.
But the problem with being a voter in a safe seat, said political scientist Dr Wong Chin Huat, is that the political party often takes constituents for granted.
“There is less incentive for the representative to really take care of your needs. On the other hand, the opposing party writes you off because they think they can’t win you over any way,” said Wong, of the Penang Institute.
Wong used the example of the controversial Lynas rare earth refinery in Gebeng, Pahang.
“At first it was supposed to be built in Kemaman (Terengganu),” claimed Wong.
But because Umno thought Pahang was a safer state politically, the plant was built in Pahang as opposed to Terengganu, whose voters once bumped BN out of the state government.
Voters, however, were not totally pliable and easily bought off with handouts or scared by racial incitement. Neither can a gamed electoral re-delineation formula served Umno.
This can be seen in the re-delineation exercise in 2003, where the BN created more mixed seats, said Singapore Management University associate professor Dr Bridget Welsh.
The assumption then was that non-Malays were behind the BN and it was the Malays who were voting for the opposition. The 2008 election results trashed that safe-seat formula.
