Can Pakatan survive post Taib era?
Increasing distrust of Malayan politics and the internal tussle within Pakatan Rakyat in Sarawak could hurt its chances in the next state election
Winston Way, FMT
Is Pakatan Rakyat’s dream to win Sarawak in the next state elections achievable, or just a simple delusion?
Earlier this year, PKR national women’s chief Zuraida Kamaruddin was quoted as saying that Pakatan Sarawak could win at least 36 seats in the next state elections expected in 2016 or earlier.
This was the number Pakatan had targeted in 2011. They eventually won only 15 seats.
Currently DAP holds 12 of the 15 seats, while PKR has three.
If talk about Sarawak Workers’ Party (SWP) hooking up with Pakatan is true then the coalition will get an injection of two more seats – Pelagus and Meluan. Together Pakatan will then hold 17 seats against Barisan Nasional’s 54. The Sarawak Legislative Assembly has 61 seats.
Reasonably, Pakatan will only need 19 more seats to form a new government in a post-Taib Sarawak.
But is this attainable?
BN Sarawak leaders, particularly PBB assistant minister Abdul Karim Rahman Hamzah thinks Zuraida’s statement a “joke”.
Across the political divide, Sarawak DAP chairman Chong Chieng Jen was more realistic.
He said while 24 seats were “achievable” their agenda was simply to deny BN a majority in the state assembly.
Pakatan’s support based on emotions
Optimistic Zuraida reportedly said the tide would turn against BN as Sarawakians were upset with the soaring cost of living.
“There is no denying that the people there are rejecting BN and this is a sure sign that BN is losing its grip in Sarawak.
“Even deep within the interiors of Sarawak, people are beginning to awaken to the lies and broken promises of BN,” Zuraida said.
But are Pakatan’s chances in Sarawak actually improving?
Let’s look at their supporters. Pakatan supporters generally think of themselves as “rebels” or “rebellious teenagers”.
Their support for Pakatan is mostly based on emotional inclination. Those who support and vote for Pakatan usually hinge their support on hate and anger towards BN and not because they fully back Pakatan’s belief
With Chief Minister Taib Mahmud stepping down, these rebels no longer have a cause in Sarawak.
Pakatan’s victory in the 2011 state election hinged largely on Taib’s alleged power abuse and his wealth.
Fence-sitters were also factored into the opposition’s victory and increased support in other areas. These fence-sitters were tired of BN and had no obvious political alternatives.
Detest against Taib was so great that Sarawakians returned in droves to cast their votes with the hope of ousting the Sarawak BN government.
In the parliamentary polls last year, Pakatan took the popular votes but lost the general election under the Election Commission’s first past the post system.
The people, roused by Pakatan leader Anwar Ibrahim, took to rallying but it changed nothing.
