Pakatan doomed if Selangor MB crisis not resolved, say analysts
With PAS leaders clearly divided on the contentious issue, the analyst said it was indicative that PKR has yet to make a convincing case with its partners. “Anwar has been checkmated on the MB change for now,” he said.
Eileen Ng, The Malaysian Insider
Political analysts have agreed with the pessimism expressed by both DAP and PAS on the prospects of Pakatan Rakyat surviving the Selangor menteri besar crisis, adding that the continued squabbles between the three-party opposition pact on the issue have also raised questions whether they have the chops to govern the country, given their oft-repeated mantra of taking over Putrajaya.
Respected independent pollster Ibrahim Suffian (pic) warns that if Pakatan cannot get its act together and present a united front, then the issue of who can govern Malaysia’s richest state can potentially tear the coalition apart.
“If they cannot agree on the candidacy of the next mentri besar, I think it will be difficult for Pakatan to survive.
“Both PKR and DAP want Khalid out and PAS alone is backing up Khalid,” the head of Merdeka Center told The Malaysian Insider.
Amid moves to replace embattled Tan Sri Khalid Ibrahim, PAS president Datuk Seri Hadi Awang came out to declare his support for the two-term MB to remain, saying Khalid has not betrayed the people’s trust.
Hadi’s stand had got the backing of the Islamic party’s influential spiritual leader Datuk Nik Abdul Aziz Nik Mat.
This has made the situation murkier as all three parties in the pact had agreed on Wednesday that Selangor needs a new menteri besar.
Because of this debacle, Ibrahim said PAS has put itself in an untenable position and might even plunge the Islamist party into a leadership crisis.
The party’s ulama wing has already voiced its support for Hadi, and by extention Khalid, and this could have a snowball effect which can cause the party to go into a paralysis given that there is another set of leaders who agreed that the former corporate leader should go.
“Given that PAS members are pretty disciplined and have a religious oriented obedience towards their leaders, Hadi’s statement will carry serious weight among members whether to support the president or the party’s decision,” said Ibrahim.
The imbroglio was not made any better when no PKR leaders – except secretary-general Datuk Saifuddin Nasution Ismail – have voiced out anything since Hadi’s shocking declaration.
“I will refrain from talking because we will work it out. PKR has made a decison and we will stick to that decision, given that the PR leadership council respects that Selangor MB is the prerogative of PKR,” strategist Rafizi Ramli said in a text message to The Malaysian Insider.
Centre for Policy Initiative director Dr Lim Teck Ghee listed three repercussions as a result of this latest political mess: a fractured coalition, a weakened PKR and damaged reputation.
He said Anwar, as well as Khalid, must take responsibility for what is seen as the implosion of PKR and perhaps, the larger Pakatan coalition, if the end game of “this long-running political wayang” is not handled well and resolved decisively.
“It is too soon to say what the electoral impact will be but it has led to the decline in support for Pakatan in Selangor as indicated by recent opinion polls,” he said in an email to The Malaysian Insider.
“The greater danger for Pakatan is the spillover effect on the other states and nationally.”
With PAS leaders clearly divided on the contentious issue, the analyst said it was indicative that PKR has yet to make a convincing case with its partners.
“Anwar has been checkmated on the MB change for now,” he said.
He added the three parties must meet to hammer out a solution, either to allow Khalid to stay on until the end of his term or force him to quit or some other variant.
“Both Anwar and Khalid must abide by that decision for the larger good of PKR and the coalition; and to preserve whatever is left of their diminished political honour and integrity.”
The non-stop squabbling over the MB post will cause the public to think twice about Pakatan’s viability as a good coalition to govern the state and the country.
“The public will think twice, they will be asking whether Pakatan is a viable coalition and can they really govern the country in the long term,” said Institute for Democracy and Economic Affairs (Ideas) chief executive Wan Saiful Wan Jan.
While the fiasco originated from PKR who decided to engineer the “Kajang Move” aimed at installing Anwar as menteri besar but which was scuttled after the Court of Appeal found him guilty of sodomy, Wan Saiful said Hadi is also equally guilty of damaging Pakatan’s reputation.
He said the former Terengganu menteri besar decided to ignore his party’s leaders who were entrusted to attend the Pakatan leadership council meeting, and had instead been badly briefed by his advisers.
The PR council meeting on Wednesday was attended by six members from the PAS central leadership, namely its deputy president Mohamad Sabu, secretary-general Datuk Mustafa Ali, vice-presidents Datuk Tuan Ibrahim Tuan Man and Datuk Husam Musa, youth chief Suhaizan Kayat and central committee member Dr Hatta Ramli.
“The whole mess started with PKR and Hadi is rubbing salt into the wound. He is not helping the situation,” added Wan Saiful.
