PAS risks isolation if it quits Pakatan over MB crisis, analysts say

(Malay Mail Online) – PAS risks losing the support of some moderates, both Muslim and otherwise, if it pursues a path that is at odds with its Pakatan Rakyat (PR) allies on key issues, including its insistence on hudud laws and retaining Tan Sri Khalid Ibrahim as Selangor mentri besar, observers said.

Institute for Democracy and Economic Affairs chief executive Wan Saiful Wan Jan (pic) said there is increasing belief within PAS that it can do better without PKR, but warned that such confidence could backfire if snap polls are called as a result of the imbroglio over Khalid’s position as Selangor MB.

“PAS will be the biggest loser and PAS will also be the cause of Pakatan’s losses,” Wan Saiful told Malay Mail Online when contacted.

“But not because of hudud. It will simply be because they will have to rely on their own supporters and their numbers are not that big. Their gains so far are because of Pakatan,” the political analyst added.

Wan Saiful said PAS is mistaken if it believes that it can have a better chance of implementing hudud, the controversial Islamic penal code, by leaving PR.

“The only party talking about hudud in the country is PAS. If they continue that campaign alone, they will become a truly lone voice,” he said.

PAS has expanded beyond its northern Malay strongholds in Kedah and Kelantan and made significant inroads in the west coast states in the 2008 and 2013 general elections, bagging 23 and 21 parliamentary seats in total respectively. In 2004, it only won seven seats.

PAS, PKR and DAP worked together in 2008 by not contesting in the same seats. The political cooperation was formalised as the PR pact shortly after the 2008 general election, and the coalition mounted a strong challenge against Barisan Nasional (BN) in Election 2013, robbing the long-ruling coalition of a two-thirds majority and pushing it to its weakest election performance.

In Election 2013, PAS was represented in every state in peninsula Malaysia at the federal or state level, except for Negri Sembilan.

Merdeka Center chief Ibrahim Suffian said PAS’ campaign for hudud has eroded its non-Malay support.

“It will definitely be punished by non-Malay voters if it is out of Pakatan,” Ibrahim told Malay Mail Online.

“PAS’ best option is to renew its commitment to Pakatan and abide by its decisions and use the remainder of the term to deliver on promises and showcase its positive, universalist values,” the political analyst added.

Political analyst Khoo Kay Peng said PAS risks losing mixed seats that have a significant non-Malay and non-Muslim electorate if snap polls were to be called in Selangor, pointing to the Islamist party’s diminished electoral performance in the 2008 general election.

“There was a period when PAS did not win that many seats in Selangor,” Khoo told Malay Mail Online.

PAS won 15 state seats in Selangor in the general election last year, while DAP and PKR won 15 and 14 seats respectively, allowing PR to form the state government with a two-thirds majority in the 56-seat state legislative assembly.

In the 2008 general election, however, PAS bagged just eight state seats in Selangor.

Centre for Policy Initiatives director Dr Lim Teck Ghee said PAS’s Malay support would decline further if the party were to leave PR.

“Their best option if they want to be politically relevant is to remain with PR,” Lim told Malay Mail Online.

Some within PAS have reportedly agreed with PKR and DAP during the PR presidential council meeting last week that Khalid should be removed from his office as Selangor mentri besar, but the Islamist party’s top leaders — president Datuk Seri Abdul Hadi Awang and spiritual adviser Datuk Nik Abdul Aziz Nik Mat — have thrown their support behind the PKR man.

A senior PR leader, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said PR could lose Selangor if snap polls are called because PAS could lose more than half of its seats, while DAP could lose two to three seats and PKR could lose three to four seats.

“Without a handful of PAS seats to support PR, PKR and DAP will likely lose Selangor with only 24 to 25 seats in total,” he told Malay Mail Online.

“PAS was heavily reliant on an overwhelming non-Malay support to win many of their seats in GE13.

“Their positions on hudud, Al-Kitab and their betrayal of Pakatan Rakyat over the MB issue will severely damage their support from the minorities, while at the same time, not give them any additional support from the Malays vis-a-vis support for Umno,” the leader added.

The PR leader said the seven PAS seats at risk in a snap election are Sabak, Dusun Tua, Seri Serdang, Paya Jaras, Sijangkang, Morib and Tanjung Sepat-seats it won in 2013 with majorities below 2,000 votes.

PAS vice-president Salahuddin Ayub admitted that his party stood to lose the most from a snap election.

“PAS will suffer the most. If we fail to solve the problem, Pakatan Rakyat may lose the state election,” Salahuddin told Malay Mail Online when contacted on Monday.

But he said that PR will “try to avoid” having to go through a fresh round of elections by resolving the Selangor mentri besar issue in the pact’s upcoming presidential meeting.