What other options does Pakatan have?
Tay Tian Yan, Sinchew Daily
The Selangor MB crisis has now reached a stalemate with the following possible eventualities in near future:
1. Anwar gives in and Khalid Ibrahim continues as MB: The impending crisis is temporarily solved, but Anwar’s Kajang plan fails completely. Everything is back to square one. However, the damage to PKR has been done, internally and externally.
Where internal damage is concerned, the three factions within PKR – the Anwar faction (his family and close aides), the Azmin faction and the Khalid faction – will no longer be able to get along properly. The Anwar faction will take control of the central leadership but Azmin will gain a foothold among the grassroots as Khalid’s faction remains firmly in power in Selangor.
Externally, PKR’s image and reputation will suffer yet another blow thanks to this squabble, its support rate fast dropping.
As the supreme leader of Pakatan Rakyat, Anwar and his leadership capacity will once again come under public scrutiny.
2. Hadi Awang gives in and Khalid bows out, Kak Wan taking his place (but then she still needs to get the nod from the Sultan).
The consequences: Pakatan is saved from disintegration, Plan B (Kak Wan in the place of Anwar) of Kajang move works. Anwar has his purpose fulfilled (whatever that is).
A power shift takes place within PKR. Khalid is out of the picture, leaving Anwar and Azmin’s people to counteract each other.
As for PAS, the Erdogans (typified by Mat Sabu) who support Anwar Ibrahim have scored some points in this battle, and PAS will remain very much in the embrace of the opposition pact.
Party president Hadi Awang and the clerics suffer a thumping defeat with calls for PAS-Umno cooperation dying down.
3. Anwar and Hadi are mutually non-compromising, and the choice of MB now goes to the state assembly. Pakatan is on the verge of disintegration. Due to absence of consensus, PKR will have to table a no-confidence motion against Khalid Ibrahim. The votes in the hands of PKR and DAP reps, along with the combined votes of PAS and Umno reps, will determine whether the motion will eventually be passed.
The influences: Once the motion is put to vote, competition is expected to be very intense. Whether Khalid is eventually unseated, the relationship between PAS and Pakatan Rakyat will inevitably be bruised
If the motion fails, Khalid will retain his MB office. He will then form a new state administration anchored by his own people. Because of PAS, this will also spell the collapse of the Pakatan state government.
If the motion is passed, Khalid will have to step down from office whether he likes it or not. But whether Kak Wan will get to be the new MB with the consent of the Sultan remains a major challenge.
4. Khalid will seek the Sultan’s consent to dissolve the state assembly to pave the way for fresh elections. The election outcome: There is no way for the three parties within Pakatan Rakyat to remain in a coalition. PAS will contest on its own, or perhaps work with Umno to confront PKR-DAP.
Of the 56 state constituencies in Selangor, about 40 are Malay-majority. Any party or coalition that wins the favour of the Malays will take Selangor.
If PAS goes with Umno, chances for them to win in these Malay constituencies are very high. But BN’s other component parties might not be happy with Umno. Neither will non-Malay voters.
If PAS were to run on its own, it can decide which camp to join after the elections. Of course, this will depend on how many seats it has won.
Whatever it is, it has become a sure thing that domestic politics will be reshuffled. Pakatan Rakyat will no longer be a three-party pact as only PKR and DAP will still be in play. If PAS chooses to align with Umno, the Erdogans within the party might flee en masse.
On the contrary, if the party chooses to play lone ranger, its future influences will very likely be confined to only the northern states of Kelantan, Terengganu, Kedah and Perlis.
