Selangor’s final countdown (UPDATED with Chinese Translation)

Once HRH is satisfied that Khalid has indeed lost the support of the majority, he could request Khalid’s resignation. However, Khalid can in turn request HRH to consent to new state elections by dissolving the state assembly. That means Selangorians would be going to the polls around October or so.

THE CORDIDORSS OF POWER

Raja Petra Kamarudin

The events in Selangor are rapidly changing. Yesterday it was one thing and today another. One side can be winning the fight in the morning and lose it again in the evening. That is how fast things are moving.

But the final whistle has not been blown yet and until it is it would be very difficult to declare a winner. However, as it stands now, it appears like the Anwar Ibrahim team has got its 30 signatures to prove that Menteri Besar Khalid Ibrahim no longer has majority support in the Selangor state assembly.

It was only 28 versus 28 yesterday. But today, with the two PAS state representatives breaking ranks with their party, the 28 have increased to 30. So now it is 30 versus 26, unless the balance 13 from PAS also swing over to Anwar. Then it would be a clear 43 versus 13 and Khalid loses.

At the end of the day it is a numbers’ game and the latest result of this numbers’ game seems to be in favour of Anwar Ibrahim.

It looks like this is the final lap of the race, or maybe more appropriately the final countdown for Selangor. Khalid’s only hope was for the 15 PAS state reps to toe the party line and not break ranks. But after his meeting with PAS President Abdul Hadi Awang on Monday, Anwar knew that PAS would not back down from its stand so why the need to wait for the Sunday meeting?

Hence the two PAS state reps decided to pre-empt the Sunday meeting and make their move today. Maybe once PAS sees it has lost it might decide on Sunday to do the ‘noble’ thing — support the winner by supporting the move to oust Khalid and replace him with Dr Wan Azizah Wan Ismail.

In politics it is always wise to change sides and support the winner when the going gets tough. As the saying goes — when the going gets tough, change sides (or is it ‘when the going gets tough the tough get going’).

Anyway, it is now no longer about what Khalid is going to do. It is more about what PAS is going to do this Sunday. If PAS sticks to its guns then it might as well consider leaving Pakatan Rakyat or else it is either going to get kicked out or the Chinese are going to punish the party come the next general election.

The Chinese have made it very clear that PAS would never become a national party without Chinese support. Without the Chinese vote PAS would be merely a regional party in the Malay heartland. Hence PAS has to accommodate Chinese wishes and the removal of Khalid is one such wish amongst a half dozen or so others (such as Bibles using Allah must be permitted).

Statistics have proven that PAS cannot succeed in states such as Selangor, Perak and so on that have an almost balanced Malay-non-Malay population. Since Merdeka, PAS has been successful in areas where the Malays make up 80% or more of the voting population. Once it goes below 80%, or worse still, 60%, PAS has little chance of winning that seat — unless they get Chinese votes.

Chinese parties like DAP do not need 80% Chinese voters to win. PAS, however, cannot get away with that. It needs 80% Malay voters to win. That is the reality of the situation and history has proven this. This is because the Chinese are solidly (around 80-85%) behind DAP while the Malays are split 50-50 between PAS and Umno. That is the reason why this is so.

Dr Wan Azizah has written officially to seek an audience with His Royal Highness the Sultan of Selangor to present the 30 signatures as proof that Khalid has lost the support of the majority in the Selangor state assembly. This may only be possible towards the end of this month because HRH is currently not in Malaysia.

And if HRH accepts this as proof that Khalid has lost the support of the majority in the state assembly then the Menteri Besar has only two weeks left to serve, depending on what HRH decides to do.

HRH can either accept those 30 signatures as proof or he can ask Dr Wan Azizah to pass a vote of no confidence in the next state assembly sitting in November. Alternatively, HRH can summon these 30 one-by-one to personally ask them their stand. This can be done at the end of this month when the Sultan is back in the country.

Once HRH is satisfied that Khalid has indeed lost the support of the majority, he could request Khalid’s resignation. However, Khalid can in turn request HRH to consent to new state elections by dissolving the state assembly. That means Selangorians would be going to the polls around October or so.

I see the greatest loser in this latest development as PAS rather than Khalid. Khalid was going to exit politics and retire anyway at the end of his term, most likely in three years or so from now. So all it means is he would be retiring three years ahead of his planned retirement.

For PAS, however, the damage done is much greater. It would have to forget its aspiration of being part of the federal government if Pakatan Rakyat ever takes Putrajaya.

The biggest winner of all would be Wan Azmi Wan Hamzah. He would now see SPLASH being re-valued from RM250 million to RM2.5 billion.

Anwar Ibrahim supports this figure. Abdul Wahid Omar, the Minister in the Prime Minister’s Department in-charge of the Economic Planning Unit, also supports this RM2.5 billion valuation. Hence, with support from both the federal government and Anwar Ibrahim, Wan Azmi is going to get the RM2.5 billion that he is asking for.

Anwar Ibrahim and Abdul Wahid Omar both agree that SPLASH should get RM2.5 billion

 

—————————————————————–

如果殿下满意有关卡立失去多数支持的证据，殿下可以要求卡立离职。相反的，卡立也可以要求苏丹殿下御准解散州议会，这意味着雪兰莪子民将会在大约十月面临一场选举。

原文：Raja Petra Kamarudin

Translated by: Ngew Kok Yew

雪兰莪的格局变化得非常快。昨日和今日所呈现的有着天壤之别。一边在早上赢得了斗争也可能在下午被击败。事情的演变就是那么地快。

然而，终场的吹哨还没吹起，因此我们不能判断谁人才是最后的赢家。不过，从目前的情况上来看，安华（Anwar Ibrahim）的团队似乎成功用30位州议员的签名来证明他们在雪兰莪州议会上取得多数的支持。

昨天仍是28比28。今天却有两位回教党的代表打乱了该党的计划，这让安华一方从28位增至30位。如今是30比26，除非所有13位回教党代表倾向安华，那么这将会是43比13，毫无疑问卡立（Khalid Ibrahim）输了。

总结来说，这不过是场数字游戏，依据最新的情况，安华在这场游戏中取得了优势。

看来这将会是竞赛的最后一圈，正确来说更像是雪兰莪的最后倒数。卡立之前的唯一希望是所有的回教党代表遵从该党的指示和不搅乱计划。可是只从安华在星期一与回教党主席哈迪阿旺（Abdul Hadi Awang）会面后，他清楚知道回教党不会收回之前的声明，那么星期日的会议将不复重要。

于是，两位回教党代表便赶在星期日前先发制人于今天采取了行动。借此，回教党将会意识到本身已失败，从而做出决定——通过支持旺阿兹莎代替卡立来证明他们是支持赢家的。

在政治里，当你面临棘手的状况的时候，最好是选择转换立场偏向赢家的一方。所谓“见风使舵”就是这个道理（又或是“当行路变得艰难，坚强者才能继续行路”）。

无论如何，卡立将会怎样做已不再重要。重要的是星期日回教党将会做出什么样的决定。如果回教党坚持己见，同样的它必须考虑退出民联，否则它会被踢出联盟或是在下一届大选被华人惩罚。

华人已经证明人假设回教党得不到他们的支持，那么回教党永远无法成为全国性的政党。没有了华人的支持，回教党不过是由马来群众为中心基础的区域政党。回教党必须接纳华人的意愿而罢免卡立是当中半数华人的意愿之一（比如圣经必须取得批准才能使用“阿拉”的字眼）。

统计也显示回教党无法在差不多种族比例均衡的混合区比如说雪兰莪、霹雳和其他地方取得胜利。自独立起，该党一直在拥有80巴仙或更多的马来裔投票群体的席位取得胜利。只要少过80巴仙，或更糟，60巴仙，那么回教党赢得席位的机率会非常渺茫，除非它得到华人的支持。

不像华裔政党，如行动党，不用80巴仙的华裔投票群体也能取得胜利。而回教党则无法摆脱该事实。回教党需要80巴仙的马来裔投票群众才能赢得胜利。这是真实的状况，也被历史验证了。这是因为行动党拥有非常稳固的华裔支持者（大约是80-85%），相反马来群众的票数将会介于回教党与巫统之间平均分散。这就是该现实的原因。

旺阿兹莎（Dr Wang Azizah）已经正式写进要求觐见雪兰莪苏丹殿下以便呈现30个能够证明卡立已失去州议会多数支持的签名。这恐怕必须拖延至月尾因为殿下如今不再国内。

如果殿下接受了有关卡立失去多数支持的证据，那么州务大臣只剩下两个星期可以出任该职，然而这一切还是取决于苏丹殿下。

殿下能够接受30个签名为证据或是吩咐旺阿兹莎于十一月召开的议会动议投下不信任票。又或是殿下可以一个接一个地召见那30位签名的州议员了解他们的立场。这也只能等到苏丹殿下月尾回来。

如果殿下满意有关卡立失去多数支持的证据，殿下可以要求卡立离职。相反的，卡立也可以要求苏丹殿下御准解散州议会，这意味着雪兰莪子民将会在大约十月面临一场选举。

我认为在这事情的最新演变里，回教党是最大的败家而不是卡立。卡立本身打算届满便退出政坛，安享晚年，很大可能是三年后又或是现在的事。这代表他顶多是提早三年实行他的退休计划。

对于回教党来说，该党所承担的伤害太大。就算民联取得了政权，回教党想要成为联邦政府的抱负也将会被遗忘。

最大的受益人非旺阿兹米（Wan Azmi Wan Hamzah）莫属。他如今能够看到SPLASH从2.5亿令吉被从新估价至25亿令吉。

安华支持该数据。阿都瓦希得奥马尔（Abdul Wahid Omar），于首相署里负责经济计划的部长也同样支持该25亿令吉的估价。因此，有着双方来自联邦政府和安华的支持，旺阿兹米所要的25亿令吉将会垂手可得。