After MB impasse, snap polls could be death for Pakatan, say analysts

By admin-s On Sep 22, 2014

(TMI) – Pakatan Rakyat (PR) is in danger of not only losing Selangor in possible state polls, but of breaking up if PAS accepts the Selangor menteri besar (MB) post, analysts say.

If the Selangor Sultan does appoint a PAS assemblyman tomorrow, a snap election could be triggered by a no-confidence vote when the legislative assembly holds its next sitting in November.

And PAS would likely be wiped out in the election over the way the party’s president and conservative faction handled the MB impasse. They have said PAS would accept the post if it was given to them.

This will contribute to the break-up of the fledging six-year-old opposition coalition, as DAP and PKR are adamant that they will not accept a PAS candidate to helm Malaysia’s wealthiest state.

“If PAS takes on the MB job, it will precipitate state elections and this can potentially break up Pakatan as it goes against the agreement between the three parties. This will create an untenable situation,” said Ibrahim Suffian, who heads pollster Merdeka Center.

The Star had reported that the Selangor Sultan held separate audiences with PKR deputy president Mohamed Azmin Ali, and PAS assemblymen Iskandar Samad and Dr Ahmad Yunus Hairi, to assess their suitability as the state’s MB.

DAP and PKR, minus the incumbent MB Tan Sri Abdul Khalid Ibrahim, have 28 seats in the 56-seat legislative assembly. With the support of two PAS assemblymen who have backed Datuk Seri Dr Wan Azizah for MB, the 30 legislators could table a vote of no-confidence against the new MB when the house sits in November, paving the way for a statewide election.

Ibrahim said there is a strong chance that PR could still win a snap poll if PAS were committed to the pact, but given the animosity over the MB imbroglio, it would be much harder now to forge the trust and cooperation they had in the past.

And in the event PAS turns hostile by contesting in seats held by PKR and DAP, this would lead to a split in Malay votes, and would benefit Barisan Nasional.

PAS would end up as the biggest loser, losing up to 14 of the 15 seats it currently holds, said Ibrahim.

Of the 15 seats, nine are marginal seats which the Islamist party won with a slim majority in last year’s national polls.

Crucially, this also means PR will lose Selangor that it has governed since the 2008 general election, as it needs at least 29 seats to remain in power.

Without the support of PAS, PKR and even DAP might lose some seats they currently hold.